The Nations Cup. My goodness, savour that. The Nations Cup. Mmm. The very name is redolent of a crackling log fire on an autumn afternoon. But wait, there’s more! Amazon Prime. That tingling feeling? That’s the realisation that a major re-structuring of European rugby broadcasting is upon us. Who says 2020’s been a miserable year?
Amazon Prime – not sure how much tax they pay – have put together a crack team of broadcasters and ex-player pundits who have only ever appeared on the BBC or ITV or Channel 4 or Channel 5 or BTSport or Sky before. As industry insider Phelam Hill put it, “[Amazon] will want to do something that is wholly different, not a vanilla broadcast”. More pertinently, they’ll be getting some good advertising bucks in the run-up to Christmas, and they’ll synergistically allow customers to make an impulse purchase of a replica England shirt (size XXXL) with “George 2“ on the back when the Saracens hooker (size XXXL) flops over the line after a drive from a five-metre line-out. Win-win for Bezos’s boys and girls.
To the games, then.
Ireland v Wales (an empty Aviva stadium)
It’s only been a few months since Ireland sent Wales packing with a comfortable win in front of 50,000 fans. It seems likely that Friday night’s game will see a similar result. Yet there are crumbs of comfort for Wales. Jacob Stockdale has gone from free-scoring winger to defensively awkward full-back this Autumn and this could be something Wales will look to exploit with an effective kicking game.
First task: find an effective kicking game.
Second, increasingly tetchy short-distance kicker Jonny Sexton has been underwhelming since the great re-start, and his replacement is Ulster’s own (import from Gloucester) Mr Billy Burns. Can two men lose a game on their own?
Nah. Ireland should have too much for Wales, and if their line-out functions, expect a couple of tries from short drives followed by a series of pick-and-goes. Plus, they have Leinster’s Jimmy Lowe on debut and he’ll pick up at least one score. Wales’ll get a consolation or two.
Italy v Scotland (an empty Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence)
It’s only a few months since these two met in a match that has been ruled an instrument of torture by a recent European Court of Human Rights ruling. Scotland had the boy Adam Hastings standing in at 10 that day, as stand-out stand-off Finn Russell had been stood down after standing a couple too many beers. Finn returned, but both he and Hastings got crocked against Wales, so the call came for the Worcester Wizard, Wee Duncan Weir, to step up in the key position.
And … Wee Duncy has grown his hair! People often ask me, “What’s NOT vanilla broadcasting?“ and I always say, “Talking about Duncan Weir’s hair and making rather unfunny jokes about it“. Trust me, there’ll be no vanilla broadcasting on Amazon Prime.
Italy are not good. They have some okay players: Polledri is a fine runner/smasher and the young outside half Paolo Garbisi has something about him, but they’re not going to be doing much against what’s turning into a pretty effective Scottish side.
England v Georgia (an empty Twickenham stadium)
There’re certain things that one’s duty bound to mention when you talk about Georgia:
- props;
- scrummaging;
- the ancient game of Lelos;
- their nickname, the Lelos, which comes from the ancient game of Lelos;
- scrummaging;
- Gorgadze;
- scrummaging;
- some platitude from some coach of some other team about how good their scrummaging is;
- props;
- and, scrummaging.
What you won’t hear much about are their backs. Which means I’m rather lost, though I like the young half-backs. Sadly, after a very so-so performance v Scotland, full-back Soso Matiashvili misses out.
Anyway, Georgia have got a great record in the 6 Nations B competition: two losses in ten years, and this is the shop window for them, scrummaging etc.
England will crush them.
France v Fiji (an empty Stade de la Rabine, Vannes)
This is the one to get the old mouth watering. Is it a coincidence that the two sides that play with the most flair both have a name that also begins with F? It is, really, but coincidences are vanilla. Expect fireworks (also begins with F) and some frantic, frenzied play from both sides.
But what those two sides look like is not exactly what you’d hope for. Semi Radrada has tested positive for the Rona so misses out, and Peceli Yato dropped out of the Fiji squad earlier. On top of that, a good number of the squad tested positive for the Rona a couple of weeks ago and a scheduled warm-up game v Portugal got canned as a result.
Still, they’ve got the marvellous Tuisova on the wing, and he’s turning out alongside eight other players who earn a baguette in France.
The hosts, meanwhile, look set to name a fairly strong side, surprising to me as there’s a reported agreement between the FFR and the clubs limiting how many games players can appear in this autumn. You’ve got to trust Foxy Fabien Galthie, a coach who, it seems, has worked out a plan for the great under-achievers of the 2010s. What will double definitely happen: The commentators will spend a lot of time talking about how great Antoine Dupoint is.
As foretold by TomPirracas
Onna telly this week
Friday 13th November
| Griquas v Sharks | 16:55 | Sky Sports Arena |
| Ireland v Wales | 19:00 | Channel 4 / S4C |
Saturday 14th November
| New Zealand v Argentina | 06:10 | Sky Sports Arena |
| Italy v Scotland | 12:45 | Amazon Prime |
| France v England (women) | 13:15 | BBC Two |
| Lions v Pumas | 14:25 | Sky Sports Arena |
| England v Georgia | 15:00 | Amazon Prime |
| Stormers v Cheetahs | 16:55 | Sky Sports Arena |
| Connacht v Scarlets | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
Sunday 15th November
| Munster v Ospreys | 14:45 | S4C / FreeSports |
| Glasgow v Dragons | 18:30 | Premier Sports 2 |
Monday 16th November
| Zebre v Ulster | 18:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Edinburgh | 20:15 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Cardiff v Treviso | 20:15 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Here is the team Midol expect to see vs Scotland:
15. Ramos ; 14. Thomas, 13. Vakatawa, 12. Fickou, 11. Rattez ; 10. Jalibert, 9. Dupont ; 7. Ollivon (cap.), 8. Alldritt, 6. Cretin ; 5. Taofifenua, 4. le Roux ; 3. Bamba, 2. Chat, 1. Gros
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Bench should include:
Baille, Marchand, Haouas
Willemse or Geraci, Jelonch,
Couilloud, Carbonel.
Ntamack, Bouthier, Cros and possibly Willemse injured.
So not the strongest France team but the strongest available to Galthié. The irony is that , should France win vs Scotland, Galthié will have to field a B team for the final.
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Why will it have to be a B team for the final, Flair?
Hypothetical question I know as rampant Scotland are up next, but I am interested to know nevertheless.
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Think that team will beat us. Our injury problems are getting so bad I fully expect Chimpie to turn up on the wing for Scotland at some point.
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Iksy, an agreement between the FFR and clubs means a player can only play 3 games max this Autumn.
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What Tomp said.
That B team would be quite handy but I doubt they could beat England. But first, to beat Scotland is no small matter anyway. I expect them to do it, but not by much.
And since you asked, no, I don’t think Ireland can beat England.
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Flair – me neither; certainly not that side. :-(
But I’d love to be pleasantly surprised.
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Agree with you about Cooney and McCloskey.
Don’t think Farrell should be at centre. Certainly not with Aki besides him. To beat England, you need to match them upfront and show some imagination in attack. I don’t think Ireland can provide either. The changing of the guard hasn’t been properly prepared.
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Sounds like you’ve got half a preview ATL already worked out, Flair. ;-)
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Think France will sneak it at the weekend. The player I really covet out of that lot is aldritt
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Chimp, that’s because he’s half scottish.
Bon sang ne saurait mentir.
He’s good, but the one I wouldn’t trade is Dupont.
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Thaum, that was cheeky.
When would you need it?
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Cheeky success! By Friday mid-afternoon, please?
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Will do.
Where do I send it ?
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Ireland are missing their two most imaginative attacking backs in Ringrose (who’s very good) and Carberry (who’s a permacrock so probably shouldn’t count). You don’t really need much imagination in attack to beat England looking at 3 of the last 4 games they’ve lost but that’s still probably more than Ireland have.
I’d put more weight on stopping them upfront and playing as much in their half as possible. Difficult but possible.
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How did Scotland handle Dupont in February when they beat France handily.? Can’t remember much about the game.
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Tam, Dupont set up a lovely try with an absolutely gorgeous kick pass in open play, it looked off the cuff, not a move – first 30 seconds here
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Yes, I watched the (extended) highlights after my comment. That was very good. The defensive line looked solid for Scotland and wasn’t quite as quickly up as other teams sometimes are, which might be a strategy against Dupont. But that was about all I could get out of it. The whole match is on youtube so maybe on Friday I’ll have a look at the game until the prop gets red.
Jalibert’s defence on the first Maitland try is not good.
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I’ve just watched Oceans Apart: Greed, Betrayal and Pacific Rugby, a documentary made by Dan Leo. It’s on Amazon video – I took out a month’s subscription for the Nations Cup or whatever it is called.
It’s an eye-opener
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‘Chimp, that’s because he’s half scottish.
Bon sang ne saurait mentir.
He’s good, but the one I wouldn’t trade is Dupont.’
It’s ‘cos it’s probably our weakest position with no one established & he’s a really effective player.
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That was before Finn & Hastings got injured.
We’re OK for scrum halfs (not world beating but OK). We’ve been crying out for a high quality 8 for years.
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All our 8 candidates fall into the unproven or had a chance but not quite top notch categories.
Bradbury: Got all the tools & has had the occasional good international game but is inconsistent & form currently un-good (not even in the squad, languishing at embra)
Fagerson the younger: Quality player with good skillz & pace, possibly a bit lightweight, relies on footwork rather than bosh. Unproven at this level, Injured.
Thompson: Current incumbent – decent enough but not quite setting the world alight
Haining: Came from nowhere in the 6N & did really well, now looking distinctly out of form.
CDP: His recent forays have been better than the initial disappearing act in Wales but not quite top quality. Amazed he’s playing at all TBH after his various nasty injuries.
Not sure who’s coming up through the ranks either really
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Memorably renamed by a schoolmate of mine as “Showercrappy”
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Bollocks.
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Agreed – too much the same.
England seem to have our “number” right now – in the Schmidt era it was fairly even 2014-18 but last 2 6N we’ve been completely overwhelmed. Oddly enough, look at these two match analyses….
Click to access England-vs-Ireland-EN-2.pdf
Click to access Ireland-vs-England-Post-Match-Report-EN-1.pdf
In attacking, we’d more possession, more carries, more metres carried in both games – England had more territory (better/more kicking). Without looking at the score – it’d be hard to know that England won both games handily.
Read on though – dominant tackles 48 to 8 and 32 to 5 – basically we’re bashing our heads against a brick wall…… Farrell and Aki sounds like it’ll be more of the same.
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Not convinced Ali Price is that good that I’d be turning down Dupont, that’s certainly who I’d take for Wales and our pack is in a considerably worse state than Scotland’s. Now if any of the teams with the better second rows are offering then that might be a different matter…
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I don’t think HBH really converted in the end. I wrote him a song to encourage him after he threw himself off a mountain when he was trustafarianising, but the subsequent reports were disappointing.
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Ringrose played 9/10 at school so he does offer that “2nd five” option which we’ve long lacked. Carbery – well, he was rushed back (not for the first time) for RWC19 and we reap the ‘reward’ . Just hope he can get back playing again at any level …. got to admire Leinster taking 19 months to get Leavy back (granted they are fairly overflowing with backrow riches)
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“In attacking, we’d more possession, more carries, more metres carried”
Can’t help but wonder when that might last have been the case for Wales in any match against decent opposition. Though I suppose it might have happened with very low numbers in the WC semi-final given that SA weren’t any more interested in ‘playing any rugby’ than Wales were.
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@Trisk – is Leavy getting back up to his previous level? Was an absolute monster before the injury.
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CMW,
Definitely v England in the 2019 6 Nations. A lot of the metres run tend to be soft carries from kick returns.
We outran by more than 30% in the2020 game as well. It’s a misleading statistic at times, clearly.
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Happy International Mens Day everyone!!!
Apparently CJ has taken the week off to go huntin and do Manly things.
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@TomP – I guess there were a lot of metres in Tips’ try in the 2020 game. I supose we do sometimes get quite a lot of possession and make carries once the result is already settled too.
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The breakdown of stats from that 2020 match are almost all in Wales’s favour – possession, territory, metres gained etc. One telling number is metres gained per carry, where England were comfortably ahead.
I vaguely remember that most tries are scored very early in terms of number of phases. Rocking up the 10, 15-phase movements is ok but it doesn’t get you that many 5-pointers.
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Unless you’re Exeter (or previously Ireland).
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https://www.espn.com/rugby/matchstats?gameId=295502&league=180659
CMW, aye. If you can trust your defence, you can do pretty well without the ball. Possession is a dodgy stat as well.
2019 World Cup final England had 56% possession but got hammered. Also, 201 metres on 123 carries v SA’s 369 metres on 89 carries. So SA a long way ahead on metres per carry.
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What I want to know is, why isn’t there an international men’s day?
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And to answer the World Cup semi-final query. Wales 182 m on 114 carries, South Africa 296 on 71.
In comparison, England 406m on 147 carries, NZ 639 on 154 in their semi-final.
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Fair comment! Even now we’re still trying to break the door down, reset after reset…. at some point we must have sucked in enough defenders to spin it wide ( or at least threaten it). At the moment, no-one thinks we’ll go wide so everyone is around the ball/ruck U12 style
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On the semi-final stats I’m not particularly surprised either with more carries for Wales or more metres for SA though again I suspect a lot of the latter was kick returns as there was sod all going on in the game most of the time. Low numbers as expected.
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e.e. cummings would support this….
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@CMW
Leinster have nursed Leavy back very gently in Pro14 …. couple of 20 min sub appearances and started against Edinburgh for 60 mins last Monday.
There were signs of the player of old – first Leinster try came from his ripping the ball out of a ruck following a blown Edinburgh lineout on Leinster 5m and a rapid counter. Managed a try after half-time (barging over from close range) – did look like he’d gotten one before ht but TMO didn’t see grounding. Also offered some neat link play with backs.
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OT – do Man Points accrued on International Men’s Day count more than Man Points accrued on other days? And is Manflu worse today (I don’t see how it could be tbh)?
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2019 World Cup
Shame it got rained off.
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It’s political correctness gone mad.
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TomP – as CMW says, a lot of the Bok metres must have been from running back kicks, although I think that would be running back kicks for 20m and then hoofing our own one. Two of our carries in the Final (not rained off, just rained on some parades) would have accounted for 70-odd metres so 300 off the other 85. And I think we got about 200 metres of Willie le Roux’s two sideways runs. For the rest, it was barely more a Robshaw each.
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Deebee and his fantasies.
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England team
E Daly (Saracens); J Joseph (Bath Rugby), O Lawrence (Worcester Warriors), H Slade (Exeter Chiefs), J May (Gloucester Rugby); O Farrell (Saracens, capt), B Youngs (Leicester Tigers); M Vunipola (Saracens), J George (Saracens), K Sinckler (Bristol Bears), M Itoje (Saracens), J Launchbury (Wasps), T Curry (Sale Sharks), S Underhill (Bath Rugby), B Vunipola (Saracens).
Replacements: T Dunn (Bath Rugby), E Genge (Leicester Tigers), W Stuart (Bath Rugby), J Hill (Exeter Chiefs), B Earl (Bristol Bears), D Robson (Wasps), G Ford (Leicester Tigers), M Malins (Bristol Bears).
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Slade still at 12!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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