Preview: Autumn Nations Cup, Round Two

Your week-end programme, unfortunately mostly brought to you by internet providers and subscription television.

Italy/ Fiji  : Saturday 1pm. Cancelled

England/Ireland: Saturday at 3pm

Wales / Georgia: Saturday at 5.15 pm

Scotland/France: Sunday at 4pm

But before that, right after breakfast, you’ll watch the most important game of the week-end, and it has nothing to do with the season.

No, it’s not Ireland at Twickenham, nor France at Murrayfield.

It’s much earlier in the day, and it’s Argentina vs Australia.

Can the Argentineans replicate last Saturday’s fantastic game when they stunned the All Blacks and won 25-15? Can they keep the same intensity and dismantle Australia as well? In the absence of South Africa, could they nick the Tri nations for the first time?

Most neutrals would hope so, but I’m not neutral. I desperately want a win for the South Americans.

Let’s see:

Mario Ledesma has stuck with the same players. Australia have beefed up their pack and recalled a couple of old horses. I doubt it will be enough. When Australia dispatched the ABs B team with not much to spare, Argentina crushed their A team. It suggests a gap in power and organization that Australia should not be able to fill, even in front of their fans. Both teams have great attacking power (often underestimated in Argentina’s case), but Australia’s pack might be on the back foot for long periods, particularly if Nic White is as slow as usual: he’ll be eaten alive by the ferocious Argentina back row.

Open the Malbec, it’s about time.

Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Rodrigo Bruni, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera (c), 5 Matias Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 2 Julian Montoya, 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chapparo
Replacements: 16 Santiago Socino, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Santiago Medrano, 19 Santiago Grondona, 20 Facundo Isa, 21 Gonzalo Bertranou, 22 Emiliano Boffelli, 23 Santiago Cordero

Australia: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Reece Hodge, 9 Nic White, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Matt Philip, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Folau Fainga’a, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Rob Valetini, 20 Liam Wright, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 Noah Lolesio, 23 Filipo Daugunu

Date: Saturday, November 21
Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Kick-off: 19:45 local (08:45 GMT)
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Angus Gardner (Australia)
TMO: Nic Berry (Australia)

England v Ireland

A bit after lunch, we’ll sit down on the couch (not too comfortably; we don’t want to fall asleep), and we’ll go to England. It’s basically Group A’s final as neither Wales nor Georgia threaten to top the group after their poor results last week.

England did not particularly set the world on fire vs Italy or Georgia, but they’re solid, experienced and well-rehearsed. They stubbornly follow their game plan to the point that they seem bewildered when it does not work. But it’s mightily efficient against most teams. Will it be enough vs Ireland? A better question would be: can Ireland win in Twickenham without Henderson, Furlong, Carbery, Larmour, Ringrose, Henshaw, Sexton? Irish coaches, like most, are conservative and have not really blooded new players.

For all the deserved praise and success that Ireland enjoy at club level, numbers simply dictate that they don’t have enough players to step in when the starters are injured. Not only will Ireland start with three inexperienced players in key positions (FB, FH, SH), but also with predictable centres and a pack that won’t impress England. And then the bench should make a big difference. There was an interesting analysis of the coming game by Irish legend, Shane Byrne, in Planet Rugby; he knows his stuff better than I do, but unlike him, I can’t see anything but a win for England.

Whose round is it now?

England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Jonathan Joseph, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Jonny May, 10 Owen Farrell (c), 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Joe Launchbury, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola
Replacements: 16 Tom Dunn, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Jonny Hill, 20 Ben Earl, 21 Dan Robson, 22 George Ford, 23 Max Malins

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Chris Farrell, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Ross Byrne, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Peter O’Mahony, 6 CJ Stander, 5 James Ryan (c), 4 Quinn Roux, 3 Andrew Porter, 2 Ronan Kelleher, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Ed Byrne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Will Connors, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Billy Burns, 23 Jacob Stockdale

Date: Saturday, November 21
Venue: Twickenham
Kick-off: 15:00 GMT
Referee: Pascal Gauzere (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (FFR), Alex Ruiz (FFR)
TMO: Nigel Owens (WRU)

Wales v Georgia

Now, wake up please, if only for going to the bathroom.  In a few minutes, Wales will take on Georgia.

It may look like a dead rubber to many, but it certainly is not. Both teams desperately need to stop the rot. Georgia’s lame defeats to Scotland and England highlight the gap between tier one and tier two nations: the Georgians will want to prove that they belong to a higher level, but it’s going to be hard. Several of their players play in France, but mostly in the bottom half of the Top 14 or in the ProD2. Expect a lot of naivety in defense and a serious lack of skills in attack.

Wales? According to Boris during PMQs, Wales want to avoid going from the Capitol to the Tarpeian rock, but how? Between Scylla and Charybdis, go with the proven and tested, or with the unknown? Oh Boris, shut up, please! Pivac’s rung the changes: no fewer than thirteen new players, some of them quite exciting. As a game it may not be a classic – such is the difference between the two teams – but at least it should bring back some smiles in Wales.

Time for the kebab.

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Louis Rees-Zammit, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Justin Tipuric (c), 6 James Botham, 5 Seb Davies, 4 Jake Ball, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Sam Parry, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Leon Brown, 19 Cory Hill, 20 James Davies, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Jonah Holmes

Georgia: 15 Lasha Khmaladze, 14 Akaki Tabutsadze, 13 Giorgi Kveseladze, 12 Merab Sharikadze (c), 11 Sandro Todua, 10 Tedo Abzhandadze, 9 Vasil Lobzhanidze, 8 Beka Gorgadze, 7 Beka Saginadze, 6 Otar Giorgadze, 5 Kote Mikautadze, 4 Grigor Kerdikoshvili, 3 Beka Gigashvili, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili
Replacements: 16 Giorgi Chkoidze, 17 Guram Gogichashvili, 18 Lexo Kaulashvili, 19 Lasha Jaiani, 20 Giorgi Tkhilaishvili, 21 Gela Aprasidze, 22 Demur Tapladze, 23 Tamaz Mchedlidze

Date: Saturday, November 21
Venue: Parc y Scarlets
Kick-off: 17:15 GMT
Referee: Luke Pearce
Assistant referees: Andrew Brace, Frank Murphy
Television match official: Joy Neville

Scotland v France

Sunday in Scotland. Coronavember. In the old days pubs would’ve been closed. Just like now.

Thank dog for the rugby.

This is going to be an intriguing game, and since Fiji’s games were cancelled, it is in fact the final of the group B. Whoever wins gets to go to Twickenham. Unless, of course, Ireland have prevailed the day before, and Wales wake up from their torpor next week (as it is vs England, they may very well). So strike that, it’s just another game.

Shaun Galthié has named a strong team and with the exception of Ntamack, Bouthier and Cros, it’s the team that dispatched Ireland and Wales rather easily. Shaun Servat and Shaun Ibanez will be happy with their pack, as is Shaun Ghezal with his work at the line out. Shaun Shaun Edwards is not so happy with his pupils as they keep leaking tries, but the other Shauns don’t mind, as they score more tries than their opponents. Speaking of which, Scotland seem a bit weakened with the absence of Finn and his deputy Hastings. But they’ve got a great pack, an outstanding back row (Richie would be the first on my list), and in Hogg the best counter-attacker in Europe (bar Cheslin Kolbe, of course).

I wish I could elaborate but teams have not been announced, so I’ll just predict a wonderful game with plenty of tries.

Shaun Shaun may sulk. I don’t mind.

Oops, here is France. As predicted a couple of days ago.

France : 15. Ramos; 14. Thomas, 13. Vakatawa, 12. Fickou, 11. Rattez ; 10. Jalibert, 9. Dupo,t ; 7.Ollivon (cap.), 8. Alldritt, 6. Cretin ; 5. Taofifenua, 4. Le Roux ; 3. Bamba, 2. Chat, 1. Gros.Bench : 16. Marchand, 17. Baille, 18. Haouas, 19. Willemse, 20. Woki, 21. Couilloud, 22. Carbonel 23. Vincent.

As prognosticated by Flair99

Onna telly this week

Friday 20th November

Harlequins v Exeter	19:45	BT Sport 1
Sale v Northampton	20:00	BT Sport Extra

Saturday 21st November

Wasps v Bristol	13:00	BT Sport 1
Zebre v Connacht	14:30	FreeSports
Scotland v France	15:00	Amazon Prime
Ospreys v Treviso	15:00	Premier Sports 2
Leinster v Cardiff	17:15	S4C / Premier Sports 1
Ulster v Scarlets	19:35	Premier Sports 1

Monday 23rd November