The briefest of all possible previews.
Georgia v Fiji
Fiji are a very good side, but have not played a test match due to their Covid problems. Georgia were much improved last week. Georgia by 5.
Ireland v Scotland
Both sides looking rather pedestrian at the moment. With the inexplicable void where Hamish McFuckface should be, as well as the return of Sexton and Ireland’s home advantage (and despite the dropping of McCloskey), Ireland by 10.
Wales v Italy
Wales by 25. You know why.
England v France
With France putting out a C side, there is not much doubt: England by 15. Although I suspect France will throw some surprises England’s way.
Onna telly this week
Friday 4th December
| Bristol 18 – 17 Saints | ||
| Connacht 31 – 14 Treviso |
Saturday 5th December
| Australia v Argentina | 08:45 | Sky Sports Arena |
| Georgia v Fiji | 12:00 | Sky Sports Arena |
| Ireland v Scotland | 14:15 | Amazon Prime |
| Bulls v Cheetahs | 14:30 | Sky Sports Arena |
| Leicester v Exeter | 15:00 | BT Sport Extra |
| Wasps v Newcastle | 15:00 | BT Sport Extra |
| Worcester v Bath | 15:00 | BT Sport Extra |
| Wales v Italy | 16:45 | S4C / Amazon Prime |
| Golden Lions v Western Province | 17:00 | Sky Sports Arena |
| Glasgow v Dragons | 19:15 | Premier Sports 1 |
Sunday 6th December
| England v France | 14:00 | Amazon Prime |
| London Irish v Sale | 14:30 | BT Sport Extra |
| Gloucester v Harlequins | 16:15 | BT Sport 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Great article on the impact of North Sea Oil on the UK economy
https://tribunemag.co.uk/2020/12/how-north-sea-oil-shaped-britains-economy
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OT, He’s really good. He’s been doing the rounds recently of leftish podcasts and interview things. I’ll be getting the new book soonish. His last one The New Enclosure is superb.
With William Davies:
and with Alex Doherty:
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OT, Have you read the Timothy Mitchell book Carbon Democracy? That’s also really good, though more focused on Arabia, Iraq and Iran.
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@tomp
It was this bit that had me:
I’ve been saying that for years – all I remember from the early 80s was blokes out of work and factories shutting.
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Houlier and Le Carre – RIP
A bad day but two really good men to celebrate, I think
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A bad time for a subpar Glasgow to meet Exeter.
In crap handling conditions Exeter were really slick at times and Jo Simmonds is on a really hot streak.
Whilst bad at club level it bodes well for Scotland because I think all of the Scots at Exeter have improved/benefited as a result of joining the club
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Whilst bad at club level it bodes well for Scotland because I think all of the Scots at Exeter have improved/benefited as a result of joining the club
Boks should probably just give Scotland the match in 2023 and save money on the plane tickets. Between ‘Project Exeter’ and Project Players, they’re gonna hammer us. Can you imagine? Newly independent Scotland lifting the Webb-Ellis trophy with Nicola Sturgeon cheering on with Macron in the head of state box?
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Start saving money.
WC calendar to be announced next February.
Tickets on sale from March.
If there are games programmed in Parc des Princes, as in 2007, but your tickets regardless of the teams involved.
I saw there SA/ Samoa ( or was it Tonga?) and Ireland/ Argentina (hoping it’d be Fr/Arg).
Far better atmosphere in the Parc than at bloody Stade de France. Closer to the city too.
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I watched the SA – Tonga 2007 game a few months back. It was a brilliant game. SA had to get the cavalry on to save the day. They saved the day and then the Tongans came back again to make it a one-score game at the end.
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Not a great draw from Ireland pov (based on current form) – might expect to beat Scotland but France or NZ in QF is probably too much. Still, never played SA in a RWC before – makes a change from endless meetings with Argentina….
Anyway, its 3 years away and as SA showed you just need to be “on game” for 6 weeks or so….
Japan can feel hard done by ….I suppose all the Band 2 teams wanted to avoid the Pumas. On current form you’d expect England and Argentina as semi-finalists. But again…its 3 years…
It’ll be interesting to see the match order…
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Slade is Peter Wright!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/55293738
Poor sod.
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I’ll keep that in mind – if it comes to it….
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Never mind Trsik, Jonny apparently wants to still be playing at the next RWC. He’ll only be 38 by then, so ‘young’ by Irish standards…
More seriously, if Sexton is in the RWC squad at 38 then something is very wrong.
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BB
nah! – I’m Spycatcher
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Right now, Sexton is the best Irish 10. I’d certainly prefer if he was “forced” out by Healy, Carbery, Byrne H showing themselves as better rather than Sexton declining….
The worst scenario is a precipitous decline – that we sometimes see in top players rather than a gentle fading away of the top level ability.
Obviously be nice for Sexton if he’s still fit and eager to play – he’ll be retired a long time – but if someone hasn’t pushed him aside (as he did to O’Gara) then it won’t bode well.
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He showed glimpses in the game against us (the wee kick for the first (?) try over the defence was spot on) and there was one game (can’t remember the opponent – England?) where he was brilliant for about 30 minutes – then got injured – but his dead ball kicking seems to have fallen apart. Maybe he needs to take a bit longer over them?
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The young Munster lad who replaced Hanrahan (and indeed the scrum-half who replaced Murray too) looked to be the goods.
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The young Munster lad…..
Ben Healy…. so far, he has indeed looked the goods. He’s played more mins in Pro14 than Hanrahan. And therein lies the problem… come the Heino we revert back to the “known” quantity even if we suspect that Healy has a much higher ceiling. When’s he going to get tbr chance to show it? Not in dribs and drabs…..
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Oddly, I think its his longer tactical kicking that’s weaker – doesn’t get huge distance anymore – the short dinks over the rushing defence still work….
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Ah… long winded discussion of Irish 10s kills blog….
Better say a few words over the corpse…..
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Interesting reading, Trisk, just nothing to add.
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Trying to digest the draw. The Boks haven’t played this year so no idea where they are formwise, whilst Ireland seem to be in or near transition time. Scotland aren’t playing as well as the talent suggests they should, so who knows? If I was Irish I’d be dumping Murray and Sexton pretty quickly though. Seems their personal declines in form mirror those of Ireland in general. Can’t imagine they’ll be sharper and better in 3 years time.
Scotland will be scratching around for enough depth to put out a competitive 23 over the course of the tournament. No disrespect, but the talent pool, despite some very good players remains thin.
Boks? On paper we’ll have a better side than 2019, with a couple of possible exceptions: no Beast, Vermeulen long in the tooth, Flo no longer a super-sub. But the bulk of last year’s side still intact. And hopefully a few fringe players developing into the real deal. Bosch, Simelane, Augustus, Sanele Nohamba, Cobus Wiese (not Kobus Wiese) and a few others.
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I would not be ditching Sexton just yet – he was in cracking form just before he got injured (again – and that is a worry). Murray’s shown a shocking decline, and to everyone except The Management, Cooney is the clear replacement. Gibson-Parke should be nowhere near anyone’s team sheet; Murray is still probably preferable to the other choices.
Since Sexton seems determined to soldier on, whether it’s good for him or not, there is time to bring along young talent such as Healy. But, as Trisk says, he’s got to be given more chances for his province before he can play for Ireland.
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If the Irish teams can’t give players a chance now when they could afford to lose six or seven games straight and still make the playoffs then they never will. And if they give them a run and they’re looking good then let them have a go in Europe.
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Changed my mind. Keep the old guard in place for as long as possible. It’s the right thing to do.
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Re. 99, one of the ABs said that it’s funny that people think the ABs were cruising apart from a couple of flashes of French brilliance/sponny bounces. Whereas at the coal face it felt like the ABs were getting absolutely hammered and only a couple of flashes of jonah brilliance kept them in touch.
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The pool stages in 2011 were by far the best ever, with big crowds and a huge buzz all over the country. A wise man said at the time “remember this feeling, because the rest of the tournament will be boringly predictable and keyboard warriors for the rest of eternity will swear that this RWC was a dud”.
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@Deebee – still time to get ROG back in for the Lions.
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@BK – It’s hard not to think the truth of that match isn’t somewhere in the middle. Pretty much any observer woud feel the 20-odd minutes that France won 33-0 is a wee bit different to the rest of the game. On the scoreboard France were hanging on by virtue of what was probably the pick of their tries mainly thanks to Dominici. Equally anyone who thinks the second half was all breakaway tries and lucky bounces can’t have been paying much attention as what was really magnificent about it was the way the French forwards duffed up the NZ pack and they kicked a load of penalties and drop goals off the back of it before the tries came. They didn’t seem to have the same control in the rest of the match though and it wouldn’t have been such a great spectacle if they had.
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@Deebee – still time to get ROG back in for the Lions.
I like your thinking. Man’s a hero.
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BK’s almost spot on with 2011. Didn’t go downhill till after the Wales-Ireland QF. Or more specifically about two minutes from the end of it when Priestland got crocked, must be one of Gats’ biggest regrets that he hadn’t subbed him with the game won
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I suspect that the innate conservatism comes from our “model” – it’s highly dependent on match day receipts (I’ve forgotten what the exact number the Munster CEO quoted at the AGM but it was 60-70% IIRC) and full houses at Thomond, RDS/Aviva, Kingsp….er Ravenhill and the Sportsground plus full houses for 6N and AI. (Obviously not in 2020)
Full houses require the provinces to be competitive in all competitions (Connacht get a bit of a bye here) – QFs in Heino, SF/Final in Pro14. That alone tends to push the provinces towards a conservative selection policy w/o any reference to what might be in the contracts of coaches like van Graan.
Now, that’s probably disappointing to the likes of me – but there’s a fair amount of “fair weather” fans making up the full houses at Thomond – think back a couple of years (2015-6) to the season before Erasmus took over the home gates in the ERC were 17k, 22k, 19k for games versus Treviso, Leicester and Stade. Following year (and also given the impetus of the emotional upswell after Foley’s death) there were 26k full houses for games versus Glasgow, Leicester and Racing. Difference between 58k total crowd and 78k over the 3 matches is huge – 30% increase.
The “fair weather” fans want to see a winning team – they’re not terribly interested in watching the development of a young 10 or promising tight head… I see folks around my town wearing Munster gear – I’d doubt they’d know where my club plays. They’re probably not interested in anything but the Heino, 6N and AIs.
I’m sure this is no different to soccer a few years back – you would have to keep winning to keep the turnstiles turning (I’m aware it’s different now with the enormous tv contracts) , and I guess none of this is new in professional sport – but when you are probably 3rd football code of choice it tends to be very much about the “here-and-now”
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@Trisk – I can see what you’re saying, but this time round those Pro-14 semi-finals are already nailed down and it’s still December (crap for the league as that is).
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I’d be surprised if the rest of the teams scratting around for third places send full strength teams away to Leinster/Munster/Ulster apart from in the very final weeks as they’ll be targetting the winnable games in the shitoff. If anyone wants to see a competitive match in Ireland that isn’t between two of their own then they’d better put second teams out (or thirds in Leinster’s case).
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Trying to imagine one of the other teams getting a run together and finding themselves in the playoffs with any sort of chance of winning two unlikely away matches to get to the final. Only ones I can even describe as candidates are Edinburgh and Scarlets and I’m afraid they’re both getting a resounding no for the time being.
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I suppose Scarlets/Edinburgh might get second as Connacht’s position is probably a bit false due to the fixture list. That would mean a home game against someone worse to get in the semis so it’s not quite as difficult as I was thinking. Doesn’t make them any more likely to beat any of the Monsters though.
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@CMW
Just looked at the 2 conference tables – ugly looking fo everyone else (I was aware L, M, U were unbeaten so far.. but even Connacht are a good bet for runner up..(with games in hand).
It would be a pity to see weakened teams come across but it’s understandable too – save your powder for the games you can / need to win. There’s probably no long-term difference in league position between a 10 point or 30 point loss – though I never think it pleasant to see young/inexperienced players “thrown” in to take a hammering (no matter how “formative” some think it)
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@Trisk – the Pro14 can always be a bit like that (and not always only with regard to the Irish teams), this season is just more extreme. I suspect Connacht still have all the other Irish teams to play while Scarlets will have all the Welsh ones and Edinburgh will get to play Glasgow a lot (and they don’t look good). Doesn’t mean Connacht won’t get second, but I think they’re still really in the pack with the others.
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Lumster have played 22 won 22 with 17 bonus points. Miserable sods. And that’s without their usual cheating crowds.
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Rumours to warm a weedgies heart:
Hastings to Glaws
Jones (H) in talks with Clermont
If this carries on next season’s going to be an even worse horrorshow.
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And rumours of DVDM to Wuss. Down with this sort thing. Thieving perfectly legitimately pre-stolen Scottish talent.
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Going to be barely able to put out professional level teams in Scotland at this rate.
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Don’t stress Chimpie, you’ll have four new squads arriving up north next year to pick and choose from.
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Pfft. we won’t be able to afford them
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Crazy to think that max no of caps any currently uncapped Irish 10 can have by RWC2023 would be 26.
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I don’t think it’s worth taking the risk.
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I suspect you’re not alone….
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Billy Burns for 2023 !
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