So here we are then. At the business end of what has been a shambolic and in many ways disappointing Lions tour. No fans, Covid a constant threat to the tour as a whole, weak provincial teams not offering much, players in and out of isolation and still very little clarity on the actual fitness and match readiness of the Boks, who’ve had one competitive outing since winning the World Cup almost 20 months ago.
The 1st test is in Cape Town, at sea level, and will by all accounts be dry and cold despite it being the winter rainy season down there. So it should allow for a decent game of rugby. Should. The other two Tests are also now going to be in Cape Town, so no altitude for the Lions to acclimatise to. First blood Lions (except for losing to the SA ‘A’ side, which had quite a few of this side in it anyway).
How important is this Test? Well, according to an anorak with more time on his hands than me (probably doesn’t have to make his own lunches, the bastard), going back to 1968, whoever has won the 1st Test between these two has also won the series. So fairly important to get that marker down!
Onto the Bok side. The starting backline is the same one that blitzed England in Tokyo, so really continuity there, with established combinations and understandings. However, Handre Pollard has had little game time recently and as the pivot, is key to keeping his forwards going forward and distributing to his outside backs when the chance is on. He’ll be rusty for sure, but hopefully settles quickly. Similarly, Makazole Mapimpi on the left wing has been in isolation and hasn’t had a great build up to the match.
Positives are that Faf, the centre pairing, Cheslin Kolbe and Willie le Roux all got a good run in that ‘A’ match and gave the Lions plenty to think about. With Pollard, de Allende and the superb defensive organiser Am marshalling the midfield, the Lions are unlikely to get too much yardage through that channel. They’ll also fancy having a crack at Dan Biggar’s channel and the Lions midfield and seeing if they’re in sync. Plenty of gas in the back three as well, with Willie also very adept at entering the line with great timing and offering good variety with his left foot.
All eyes will be on Chessie and seeing how he goes against McDuhan and whether the Boks give him much first phase ball. If they do, he could cause havoc. McDuhan has been very impressive on this tour (and before it), but the Bok defence has regained its miserly reputation and the drift and scramble seems to work most of the time. It’ll be interesting to see if the Boks use the ‘Japan rush’ where Am flew up into the Japanese midfield regularly to make it difficult to get the ball to their speedy wingers and forcing them back into the midfield and heavy artillery.
The replacement backs don’t fill me with much confidence, although all have enough experience to get the job done. Hershel Jantjies is an electric 9 when on form and snipes around the sides excellently, whilst Elton at 10 is very experienced. Damian Willemse is inconsistent and not much cop defensively.
The forwards? I’m a bit bewildered by the front row, which I don’t think is anybody’s first choice down here. Ox Nche is in just his 2nd Test and gets the nod over the ginger ninja Stephen Kitshoff based on his mobility, whilst Trevor Nyakane was less than impressive in the ‘A’ match. Up against wily operators in Jones and Furlong it could be a gamble that backfires on the Bok coaching staff. If it does, the Boks will be on the back foot early on. Mbonambi at hooker is the man in possession and excellent in all his disciplines. The replacement front row could cause absolute havoc in the second half though and it’ll be interesting to see when they’re introduced.
The second row is excellent with the physicality of Etzebeth nicely complemented by the sheer work rate of ‘Sous’ Mostert – a hugely underrated part of the Bok pack at both the set piece and on defence in open play. With the excellent Lood de Jager to come off the pine, there is quality in the second row.
The back row is either a master stroke or a disaster waiting to happen. Siya Kolisi isn’t everyone’s cup of tea down here (many for reasons other than rugby), but he does a lot of unglamorous work and is a great leader, something we’ll need in the heat of this battle. Bok World Cup winning captains – Pienaar, Smit and Kolisi – have all been hugely respected by their sides and importantly also by the opposition and the refs. You can’t replace that. PS du Toit is another machine in the pack, who not only offers a lineout option and a tackle machine, but a good carrying option too. He owned George Ford in the World Cup and will be looking to put similar pressure on Dan Biggar. The real surprise is Kwagga Smith at 8. The exact opposite of Duane Vermeluen – who will be sorely missed whatever the management says about depth and quality – Smith is a natural ball carrier who thrives in open play. He’s also very good on the floor and likely been picked to slow down Lions ball and win turnovers. He won’t knock many back in the tackle though.
Looking at the pack overall, it would appear that the Boks are wary of the Lions playing fast and loose (by Test standards) so have picked the likes of Nche and Smith to add mobility to the pack early on and disrupt the Lions at the breakdown, with some brutally heavy artillery to come on later on.
Prediction? If the Boks don’t run out of puff too early and they’re able to nullify the Lions pack, I think they’ll sneak it. Boks by 2 points!
Onna telly this week – there’s only one, but it should be a goodie
Saturday 24th July
| South Africa v B&I Lions | 17:00 | Sky Sports Main Event |
Ovally Balls 
The bomb squad front row have been a huge disappointment so far
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Try, that is what happens with you ship on the shit
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Oh Kolbe touched it forward, lucky as fuck
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Knock-non by Kolbe?
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Phew, that was lucky too.
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Lions lucky with that knock on.
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Great win. Two very close sides.
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That was tense
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Well done the Lions!
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Well, I didn’t expect that!!
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It’s great that the sides are evenly matched
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terriffic – that’s what tour matches are all about – worth it’s weight in gold to the Lions
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I thought Courtney had a great game – many others played well, too
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Sink, Owens and Mako were really good in that last third, Conan and Itoje superb throughout , Lawes had a big game
I’d be tempted to go with the same pack and subs next week
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Big Dave MoM ?
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Ticht – Curry can and will do better, I think
LCD’s no step back attitude was important
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Brilliant from the Lions in the 2nd half. Gutted, but our plan didn’t work. Next week is gonna be epic.
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Lions win next week, Gats plays Smith at 10 and Finn at 12 for the last test, they play right and left first receiver
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Lawes was brilliant in the second half, I thought Price played well. Watson A. and Hoggy had fairly quiet games.
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SA have got to work out a way to get the ball to Kolbe and Mapimpi more often as they’re not going to be able to batter the Lions. Lions can do a bit more with the ball as well. For neither team is it going to be easy.
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Have to admit Lawes was good. We reckon there has been a mitosis process, and he now has two brain cells.
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Boks were completely outplayed in the second half. Not what I expected. The Lions were immense. Next week the Boks will need to do more than box kick. Should be a helluva Test and hopefully my boys can take it to the final match.
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Thaum
Lawes has been underestimated since he first appeared on the scene. he is a terrific big match player and capable of multi-tasking in a match to great effect
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– and, currently, he is injury-free
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YYYYYEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!
Dave Lawes my man of the match. Awesome trolling by Gatland to pick him at 6.
AWJ is a warrior. Fair play. Legend.
Boks bloody unlucky with the TMO reviews. Well played anyway, but especially bearing in mind the state of things.
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I wonder what the outcry would have been if it had been Farrell on A.n.o. and not Am on Daly?
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It’s a good tackle by Am. That’s the difference with some of Farrell’s more enthusiastic hits.
Still surprised that the Watson spear tackle on Willie le Roux didn’t merit a yellow.
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https://www.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/rugby-union/12363122/welcome-to-cape-town-lukhanyo-am-wipes-out-elliot-daly
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Several beers down, but here is my departmental assessment of the game;
Front Row – about evens over the course, the Boks really went after the Lions starters and imo got a few decisions. There was no real dominance after the first two scrums and the much anticipated destruction by the stronger Boks subs didn’t happen.
Second Row – AWJ is getting near Superman wearing AWJ pyjamas status and Itoje was the best player on the park.
Back Row – game of two halfs, Kwagga had an excellent first half (but he’ll never be an Edinburgh player) but Lawes had a really telling 20 mins to half an hour. I thought Conan was good in everything he did, Curry was the personification of the Lions in the first half, some good stuff but gave away cheap penalties. The old adage of the game being won here is still true and the Lions just about edged it.
Price v Faf – I think selectors watching the game would pick Faf over Ali, but Price starting with Murray closing out is a difficult combo to resist.
Fly half about equal, centres advantage Boks, their defence was excellent.
Back three, Kolbe was very quiet, I thought vdM had a better game, Watson v Mapimpi was advantage SA, Metal Guru v Hoggy was about equal
The Lions bench was stronger, imo.
But there isn’t a lot to choose between the sides
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According to the Guardian, Ali Price was only a 6/10! Would have said he was at least a couple of points more than that.
Also interesting that Sky spoke about how well Mako and the others did in the scrum when they came on, yet they didn’t replace the front row until 14 minutes into the second half. SA changed their front row at half time – I don’t remember them dominating any scrums before the Lions changes.
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Price was ok, BB. Threw out a couple of poor balls in the first half when he was under pressure. You could if you were really critical look at what happened when SA score their try. Watson and Price get over-excited and lose the shape of the defensive line. PS du Toit ends up going inside Price and Daly fell over giving him the chance to run 25 metres.
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His kicking was pretty good and that was all too obviously important in this game.
Anyway, those ratings are a pile of shite so I wouldn’t worry about it.
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I can’t see there being too many changes for the next test for the Boks, there weren’t many big calls for players who were left out, rather than through injury like Vermeulen.
For the Lions I think Owens might have squeezed himself into the starters jersey. I’d be disappointed if Jones starts ahead of Sutherland and more so if Rory drops out of the 23 all together.
Biggar’s return to play protocols must rule him out, Shirley?
I hope Finn is fit, Farrell is playing like a drain, despite the journos creaming themselves over him hitting a bread and butter goal for an international fly half.
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With all the chatter on the Sky comms about having 60 seconds to take the kick, it still took over 70 seconds for Farrell to kick the penalty.
It was Farrell’s shoulder that hit Biggar on the head and meant the HIA as well.
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I can understand how both teams’s fans feel tonight, but as a neutral may I say this was one of the most tedious games I’ve watched? So much râlent
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Oops. So much talent on the pitch, so little risk taken, so many 50/50 ref decisions, whether at the breakdown or from the scared TMO. Two bold men fighting for a comb ?
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Tomp
Thanks for the link.
I thought the tackle looked great in real time but slow-mo highlights the relative lack of arms and high shoulder first. My original was just a tongue-in-cheek comment, but…………….
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I think that next match I would have Harris for Daly (to bench).
Biggar is a problem in that he is first pick but I don’t remember the last time he lasted 80. The assumption that he starts and will have to be subbed at some time imfluences bench selection strategy.
If he can’t start then I think Farrell has to start but how will that change strategy? I would be interested to see how often Biggar received and moved it along the line. Did he do anything that Farrell wouldn’t/couldn’t?
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I agree with Ticht that Conan was very good and steady all game
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I believe that the next match will be physically tougher (if that’s possible). SA with a couple of games under their belt now.
But, they will have to force the game in order to win – which is to Lions’ advantage.
It will be interesting to see if and how SA change strategy. Rucks will be key.
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oh – and ‘Morning All!
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A couple of tries went abegging that may have seen a different result, but you can’t argue with the way the Lions roared in the second half. At 12-3 I was happy and at 17-10 it was looking okay, but we simply didn’t have an answer to the sustained pressure in the end. Was it fitness? Covid rustiness? Maybe, but we got done in the second half and all that’s reflected is the final score.
I don’t see the Bok selectors panicking with selections though. Backline as is, but try a few phases down the line please? Who knows what might happen if we actually spread the ball wider?
Forwards – starting front row keeps its place, Malherbe ditched from the pine for Koch. 2nd row stays and hope that de Jager gets sharper over the next week. It’s the back row that is of concern. Marx made more tackles in 40 minutes than Kolisi did in 80. Smith was decent in the first half when the Boks were on the front foot, but went AWOL and conceded 3 penalties in the second when we were struggling. Not sure where we are with Duane but 8 is suddenly a big issue for us, especially since Marcel Coetzee seems to have eaten the coaches biscuits that they won’t entertain him even in the squad.
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Only caught the game on radio (live) and picked up highlights later (behind the wheel, y’day travelling from Galway to Killarney via a regatta in Ballinskelligs).
First half sounded very disorganised from Lions pov, and I was left with the impression that dumb pens and poor lineouts were going to be the ruination of BIL.
Difficult to say if SA got gassed in the 2nd half – but game did follow the pattern of the SA ‘A’ game to an extent. On the Le Roux “try” – pass from De Allende looked forward but wasn’t obvious that Le Roux was ahead of the kick. Probably should have gone with on field decision. Big swing.
On the second disallowed try – Kolbe does knock forward but what follows was fairly bad – one player after another shipping the ball backwards and sideways – sort of thing that goes badly wrong at U14 level…. from a coach’s point of view you’d almost want the opposition to score to teach your charges a lesson.
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On changes for next week – based only on highlights – maybe Owens in … Farrell for Biggar if latter isn’t available. Can’t think Murray will displace Price although I’d have my doubts if Murray is the right choice if chasing a game….worked fine as Lions were leading and trying to “manage the game”. Daly might miss out – not sure he’s the right choice for the heavy carrying game (Farrell in and Henshaw out one?)
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That second disallowed try is not good from the Lions but there must have been calls for the ball to come and it was kind of on. However, the Bok defence was really well-organised. Farrell pulls out of the ball coming, probably sensibly cos de Allende would have smashed him, but it just put off the bad stuff coming for a second. I think they got really lucky with that one.
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Slade, I think Biggar would’ve gone 80 this week but got his nut cracked by friendly fire. With Wales Sheedy’s a good lad to bring on as he speeds up the game but can also play with some control. Russell is like a super de luxe version of that so it’d be great to see him on the bench (at least) for next week,
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I think I would change very little:
– Harris must come in as his defensive skills will be vital – Daly to the bench
– if Biggar injured, Farrell in
– if Jones is fit he replaces Sutherland – keep Mako on the bench
– maybe Adams for VdM – would be harsh ‘cos I think VdM’s attacking strength kept the opposition on the back foot somewhat
SA have a choice:
– more of the same
– change to a wider game
Their core problem is that their back-up 9/10 combo is nowhere near as good as their first and Faf rarely lasts 80 minutes.
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Tomp
I’m not so sure – I’m a Biggar fan but he is getting more frail with time.
I think Gats will look for cold control next week – which has Farrell’s name all over it
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They left Faf on for as long as possible at the World Cup, all 80 v Wales and 76 minutes in the final. Herschel Jantjies is a very good player but not Faf’s level.
South Africa should be better next week I think. Another week of Covid out of the lungs of some of them, a couple of tactical switches. And this was a game they were not too far from winning. Equally, the Lions should be better. It could be a belter.
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Would anyone care to write a preview for next week’s match?
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