Duelling Bloggos

You wait bloody ages for an ATL, and then two turn up at once….

No prizes for guessing which is the work of Craigsman, and which of Deebee7.

The Glorious Series Continues

Pre/Ramble

So it’s a bit weird that, with a Lionz series in south Africa being poised with one game each, rugby fans seems quite deflated about the last match in this series. No fans, empty stadiums, accusations of biting, of slowing down the game, of racism, of influencing the referee have all played a part.  But really it’s the fact that the rugby hasn’t set the world alight that’s the problem (Springbok tries aside) in this Craigsman’s opinion.  Both sides seem to be playing low risk stuff seeing who breaks first.  Kick, kick, kick.  The Kiwis would lap this up.  Form-wise, apart from the last half of the second game (and a bit in the first half of the first game) the Lions forwards have been able to get the dominance needed to win but they have been blunt in attack.  Here’s hoping that rugby* wins and we get a game on Saturday.  Let’s have a look at the teams innit.

Lionz^TM

So this makes me wonder what the feck Gats is playing at with his selection for the third test.  I am but a simple accountant, unused to the complexities of rugby coaching, but I’m trying to work out some of the choices made at 9 and 10 and 21 and 22.  Starting with a live wire scrum half and a … solid fly half and then ending with a … solid scrum half and a live wire fly half seems to be negating the strengths of each player.  Either start with the live wire options and when the Springbok defence proves too miserly to score tries against or a nice healthy lead has been built, end with the … wise old heads who like to kick and do the game management stuff. Or, do the opposite to chase the game.  What do I know?  Everything else in the team seems reasonable.  Courtney Lawes has done well to ignore the instructions from Dan Biggar and the rest of the pack looks solid.  I would probably have Tadhg MK II in the finishers but hey ho.  The back 3 look like they could negate a dastardly kicking game and we have two lumps in the centre to negate the Boks and the “amazing” Elliot Daly to come in against the tired legs at the end. So, I’m sanguine there.

Springboks

The Springboks look rubbish and will get hammered whatever happens look like a settled unit right now with the only changes have come from injury and OH MY GOD IT’S MORNE FECKING STEYNE!!!!!!!!!!  Maybe it’s just more trolling from Rassie and we’ll see a last minute ‘injury’ and a proper player like Wynand Olivier will replace him.  Just ignorant speculation on my part.  Other than that, I can’t see anything to pick at.  It’s a formidable side and Lionz supporters everywhere will have breathed a sigh of relief that Duane Vermeulen hasn’t yet come back from injury.  I think they will rinse and repeat what worked in the second game.  And why not?  I hope that their fantastic wingers see some more ball in this game though.  If only for them to be bundled into touch at the last second.

Prediction

Whoever gets the forward grunt and manages the ref will win.  I really hope it doesn’t come down to the ref or some bs unseen citing or time wasting or whatever.  Hopefully the ref will keep the game flowing and we’ll have a classic* on our hands.  So who do I think will win?

Erm… hopefully Gats will put me in my place and Finn will catch a perfect box kick to sling an amazing pass to Sam Simmonds for his record breaking hat trick and the Lions win by a point or more. 

Or… the Springboks grind the plucky tourists into the dirt and they will win by 18 points.  Morne Steyne kicking the final penalty from the Springboks 22.

Or… the test never bloody ends.

Ok, ok Lions 24** – 21 Springboks.  There, come at me you bastards.

Final ‘thoughts’

The real question on everyone’s lips is ‘what will this mean for England’?  I’ll be btl to give my thoughts on this shortly.

* Which means the Lions win.  Anything else is one for the purists.

** Have I mentioned that Siya Kolisi has a special place in my heart?  I’ll have another poster to put on my bedroom wall after this series so all is not lost if the Lionz lose.

My Way, Or How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love the Bomb Squad

Gats and Rassie loom into view through the smoke-filled karaoke bar, each picking up a mike and ignoring the other, before launching into their tuneless non mea culpa est:

And now, the end is near, and so I face the final curtain

My friends, we’ll kick it clear, we’ll force the pace of which we’re certain

We’ve kicked a ball out full, we’ve launched the oval skyway

But more, much more than this, we did it our way

Attacks, we’ve had a few, but then again, too few to mention

We kicked what we had to kick, and soar it through without invention

I planned each scrumming force, each sideways step and passes astray

But more, much more than this, the blame is his way

The lights dim, the mikes clatter emptily to the floor, clunking soullessly as they slink to the exits, grim, with regret etched on their faces. But enough of my whisky and chocolate addled dreams last night.

The third Test. The series is alive, if not exactly kicking, if you ask many followers. The changes have been wrung, the die is cast and now we’re 80 minutes (or up to 120 depending on how things pan out) from anointing the victors with bragging rights for the next 12 years. Enough has been written about the quality (or absence thereof) of the first two Tests and the series in general, much of it accurate, much of it bilge, so let’s focus on the match to come, shall we?

Six changes in the Lions camp and 3 (one positional) in the Boks. The Lions have been roaring all week about speeding up the game, gaining tempo, running the Boks ragged and raiding the trophy cabinet in the process. In come Price at 9 to speed up delivery from the base – but to Biggar at 10 who hasn’t set the world light in ether teste thus far. Outside him, Bundee Aki, a poor man’s Damian de Allende, comes in to allow Henshaw to move to 13 in an attempt to create more space in midfield, whilst at the back, the Welsh duo of Williams for Hogg and Adams for Watson on the right wing aims to get more incisiveness in attack. On the bench, Connor Murray and Finn Russell are paired, a conservative slower 9 with a heads-up 10, seems strange, to say the least and suggests that Gatland remains conservative and not trusting of an all-out assault on the Bok defence.

Up front the Welsh duo of Jones and Owens are slotted into a front row that struggled last week, despite the Lions leading at oranges, the second and back row is unchanged, slightly surprising given the backseat they took and enormous energy expended seven days ago. AWJ, warrior that he is, must be feeling the effects, whilst Lawes was fairly anonymous last week.

The bench looks strong, but not overly stellar and there must be some concerns in the Lions camp that six new players who’ve spend much of the last month carrying tackle bags will be disruptive – if it is early one, the Lions will be playing catch up.

The Boks have two enforced injury changes, with talismanic 9 Faf de Klerk and indispensable blindside PS du Toit both out. These are huge blows, however much Bok fans will try to sugar-coat things. De Klerk is without peer at the box kicking game and all-round nuisance value, whilst du Toit is an 80 minute machine across the park. It’s resulted in considerable rejigging in the Bok side, with Lood de Jager back in the second row to partner Eben Etzebeth and Franco Mostert moving to blindside in du Toit’s place. Big moves. De Jager back is great news, adding considerably to the scrumming department and lineout, as well as carrying in heavy traffic, but is more limited out wide. Mostert has played flank, but with limited success. That said, du Toit only played 20 minutes last week, half of them knackered, and the Boks coped just fine without him. The rest of the pack is as is for the starters, and that’s good news.

The bench forwards are the same front row, which is formidable and duffed their opponents last week, whilst Mostert will slot back into the second row later on, with Kwagga – far better on the flank replacing du Toit than playing at 8 as in the first Test – and Marco van Staden coming on later to pinch ball, slow things down and add some vim to the forwards.

The backs have Cobus Reinach at 9, a different player to Faf, without the pinpoint kick accuracy, but absolutely electric around the fringes and in open play. If he brings his ‘A’ game (assuming he’s given licence) he presents an entirely different headache for the Lions – and possibly his own side. The rest of the backs are the same as the first two Tests and pick themselves. Perhaps Reinach can offer some space for Kolbe and Mapimpi to snipe down the blindside every now and then? However, an inaccurate display by Reinach could set the tone for the Lions to dictate the pace and shape of the match. It’s a critical piece of the jigsaw.

Key areas to watch, then, are:

• Whether the Lions can maintain parity up front for the full 80 (or near enough) to dictate what happens behind the scrum;
• Will six new players be too disruptive to the Lions, despite much of it revolving around national combinations – some of the guys are pretty rusty;
• How Gats introduces his bench – do Murray and Russell join the fray together, and if so, what’s the point?
• Will the Boks be able put down a marker from the get-go and dominate the Lions up front to dictate the pace (and crucially the scoreboard) to negate the threats out wide;
• Will Faf’s absence prove too disruptive to a Bok plan that has been well honed for a couple of years now and will allow the Lions to move the ball wide to their very good back three;
• Will the Boks surprise and give it a bit of width themselves earlier in the piece; they’re certainly more than capable of scoring tries whilst maintaining a mean defence;
• Will the refereeing quartet come out unscathed? In many respects, I think the last point is maybe the most important.

Prediction? I’ve gone Boks by 2 on Superbru, which portends, unfortunately, a Lions win based on the last two matches…

South Africa

15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff

Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marco van Staden, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Morne Steyn, 23 Damian Willemse

British & Irish Lions

15 Liam Williams (Wales), 14 Josh Adams (Wales), 13 Robbie Henshaw (Ireland), 12 Bundee Aki (Ireland), 11 Duhan van der Merwe (Scotland), 10 Dan Biggar (Wales), 9 Ali Price (Scotland), 8 Jack Conan (Ireland), 7 Tom Curry (England), 6 Courtney Lawes (England), 5 Alun Wyn Jones (captain, Wales), 4 Maro Itoje (England), 3 Tadhg Furlong (Ireland), 2 Ken Owens (Wales), 1 Wyn Jones (Wales) Substitutes: 16. Luke Cowan-Dickie (England), 17 Mako Vunipola (Saracens, England), 18 Kyle Sinckler (England), 19 Adam Beard (Wales), 20 Sam Simmonds (England), 21 Conor Murray (Ireland), 22 Finn Russell (Scotland), 23 Elliot Daly (England)