Pack your suitcases and prepare for Round Two of the European Cup.
Cardiff v Harlequins
Home advantage and Ellis Jenkins won’t do enough for Cardiff against in-form Quins. Quins by 10.
Castres v Munster
No-one will ever know the result of this match as anyone who attempts to watch it will die the most horrible of deaths from boredom, judging by the reverse fixture.
Wasps v Toulouse
Ooh. Toulouse by at least 35.
Ospreys v Racing 92
Surprisingly, Racing 92 are languishing even further down the Top 14 table than Ospreys are in the URC. I still think they’ll win, though – by about 12.
Connacht v Leicester
This could be the surprise of the weekend, possibly depending on the weather. Connacht by 3.
La Rochelle v Bath
Bath to take a Bath. La Rochelle by 20.
Exeter v Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow have been looking the business in their last couple of matches, and Exeter are not what they were last year. Weegies by 6.
Bristol v Stade Français
Neither side setting the world on fire this season, so home players by 4.
Leinster v Montpellier
Despite being toppled off the top of the URC, Leinster remain a team to be very scared of, and are at home. Blue Meanies by 17.
Bordeaux v Scarlets
Ooh là là, les Médocs par approximately neufty.
Northampton v Ulster
Will the return of Baloucoune and Hume mean an Ulster away win? Probably not, but I’m going for Ulster by 7 anyway. (This is why I never win the leagues.)
Clermont v Sale
Oh dear, Yellow Army by 30.
Onna telly this week
Friday 14th January
| Castres v Munster | 20:00 | BT Sport 3 |
| Cardiff v Harlequins | 20:00 | S4C / BT Sport 2 |
Saturday 15th January
| Wasps v Toulouse | 13:00 | Channel 4 / BT Sport 2 |
| Treviso v Dragons | 15:15 | S4C |
| Ospreys v Racing 92 | 15:15 | BT Sport 3 |
| Connacht v Leicester | 15:15 | BT Sport 2 |
| La Rochelle v Bath | 17:30 | BT Sport 3 |
| Exeter v Glasgow | 17:30 | BT Sport 2 |
| Bristol v Stade Français | 20:00 | BT Sport 2 |
Sunday 16th January
| Leinster v Montpellier | 13:00 | BT Sport 2 | ||
| Bordeaux v Scarlets | 15:15 | BT Sport 3 | ||
| Northampton v Ulster | 15:15 | BT Sport 2 | ||
| Clermont v Sale | 17:30 | BT Sport 2 |
Ovally Balls 
Bulgaria – and a lot of other Eastern European countries – have much lower take up of the vaccines than the UK. That’d be the main cause for that stat I’d say. Lockdown hard and early and then get the vaccine programme rolling and get high take up is probably the ideal. And don’t be too self-congratulatory if your first lockdown worked (the Czech Republic).
I’m sure everyone has seen this story this week:
https://english.radio.cz/son-blasts-anti-vaxxers-singer-dies-after-deliberately-getting-covid-8739526
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TomP, that’s quite something! Vodka before a match. There is a story here (no idea how true, but it’s had legs for years) that one of the Transvaal batsmen – and it was likely to have been one of Graeme Pollock, David Dyer, Henry Fotheringham or Kevin McKenzie, from the ‘Mean Machine’ side had a little extra in their drinks during matches. During a drinks break a young guy new to the side glugged down the wrong drink and spent the next few overs trying to sober up.
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CMW, fond thoughts to you and your family.
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Deebs, well spotted, the autocorrect on this machine has a life of its own
To rugby – I read that Cardiff Toulouse is off and Cardiff have been awarded 28-0, which, according to one source, means Cardiff go through without winning a game and Toulouse go out of the competition
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Craigs – Not to spend all day on this, but the population of Bulgaria is under 7 million. Don’t know what the age/health profile is like, but I’d guess they don’t have a first-rate health service, apart from the lack of vaccination that TomP points out. If you’re looking to see how the UK stacks up against similar countries, look at France, Germany, etc. We are pretty poor in comparison. We even have a significantly worse death rate than the US – although I suspect theirs is very seriously under-reported.
As for the rugby, yes Cardiff get 28-0, which puts them in 8th place behind Toulouse, per the Beeb.
And I did such a piss-poor job of prognosticating last week that I don’t think I’ll bother today!
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Sale qualified like that in last season’s tournament.
I think – from my reading of the rules – Toulouse and Cardiff would be level on 7 points but Toulouse ahead because their points difference is better.
If Wasps and Castres both win, it’d be bye-bye to Toulouse.
It’s rough whatever happens.
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Follow the instructions and you can test out various scenarios …
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I can’t believe that guy’s gone for Munster to score 45 and Leinster only 33.
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According to that if Wasps get an LBP – they’d knock out Cardiff and LBP and 4 tries – they send Toulouse to R92 and themselves to Ravenhill.
(not entirely sure this is bugfree – but it’ll help waste a few moments)
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thaum, here’s something about Bulgaria: https://www.dw.com/en/bulgaria-fighting-a-losing-battle-against-covid/a-60486611
(I’m not sure I agree with Ganev’s Enlightenment comment)
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@cmw – sorry to hear your trouble and my condolences on to your loss.
My years here make me surprised to see the funeral is next week.
The mother of one of our U16s died last weekend (not unexpected – like you said, expected but sudden all the same) . She was buried Tuesday.
Not sure if the rapidity helps with the grief or enables it to start properly sooner. But it’s still jarring (to me) to hear of these long intervals waiting for closure (or for it to begin)
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TomP
That’s fucked up.
The link made in the article between functional illiteracy and vaccine refusal is interesting, and probably very valid. (Never mind the Enlightenment.)
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Tomp – I’m sure that it’s not a ‘fair competition’. The government can’t control all the factors that affect the outcomes.
Interestingly, comparing the Nordic states the Swedish death rate is far in excess (200% higher) of Denmark, Norway and Finland. They have fairly similar population densities, health and gdp etc (although Norway is ahead on gdp). So I would say they handled it badly.
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Yes! To rugby!!
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Craigs – Sweden decided not to do any lockdowns.
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Thaum – yeah. Dumb.
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Sweden still had a lower death rate than the UK who did lockdown. Hope this link works.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=SWE~GBR
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If you mess with the datasets you can also show Ireland had a similar death rate to Sweden.
My main point is that with massively different ways of collecting data you can’t really meaningfully compare these datasets.
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Toulouse furious over EPCR decision as they have managed to put a squad together.
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OT – I expect if you mess with the datasets you can show whatever you want. :-)
We are told that the only way to really compare will be to compare excess mortality, but that’s also an interesting one as Covid restrictions will also have massively cut down the normal seasonal flu deaths.
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The last 16 is home-and-away, no?
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Castres ALMOST have a Ticht in their forward pack. Only he plays on the wrong side.
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Castres making Quins look rubbish.
Kockett is a little shit but still decent at halfback.
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Good finish by Dombrandt.
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Have taken Flair’s advice not to watch any match involving Castres.
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… but happy to read the updates from those with a stronger stomach.
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12-16 to Castres but Quins just had a call scratched off. Adamson’s been a bit dodgy.
Castres playing ok and causing problems. Benny Botica flinging it about from outside half.
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Just made this for dinner. It can be cooked during a half-time break (if you use fresh pasta) and is absolutely delicious.
https://www.nigella.com/recipes/linguine-with-clams
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19-16 now but I missed the score.
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Marler being a prick again. Yellow card.
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“19-16 now but I missed the score.”
I blame Nigella and the clams. All these recipes say you can cook things 10 minutes, but it’s never true.
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Brilliant try by Kockott from a line out move. Castres in the lead again.
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Marler plays in the wrong era. He stamps on the scrum half’s hand, and when he gets a yellow card for it he shrugs and says, “Fair”
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CMW – it really is true in this case. Put the pasta water on to boil (fresh egg pasta only takes 4 mins to cook), peel garlic & chop parsley while that’s coming up, then do the garlic & chillies while the pasta cooks for 3 mins, then chuck it all together. Magnificent.
The only clams I could get were frozen and pre-cooked, so I didn’t have to faff about with the openings and closings of them, just chuck them in long enough to heat up. They tasted completely fine (I was dubious).
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Embra leading Brive 33-3 at half time, five tries.
Glen Young the Jedburgh lock who joined us from Quins this season has scored two, running one in from half way
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refit might be interested to hear that Freddie Owsley has scored two in his debut – 40-3 now
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Nice to see Huw Jones looking a wee bit more like himself tonight. Steele’s played quite well tonight too.
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This is a good game.
I always say Castres put on a good show.
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I’m assuming Castres scoring 5 tries is unusual?
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52-3 for Edinburgh now
Watson with the latest
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Adamson won’t have to pay for any meals in SW London for a while.
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Edinburgh 66 – 3 Brive
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Wow, that’s conclusive by Embra – well done!
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Well that was a dramatic game and a script-written finish
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Thaum, I’ve just read a comment elsewhere on the Edinburgh game, “It wasn’t as close as the score suggests” :-)
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General gist from Twitter is that the reffing wasn’t good.
Still nothing for England or Wales to worry about….
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Adamson was fine, he was unsighted at the last ruck, being on the other side of it, and his ARs didn’t call it, so it’s tough shit.
Healy was totally in the wrong to call out a referee like that, it’s one thing on forums where temperatures run high during a game, but it’s not okay for a pundit to do it on tv.
Play the whistle.
We’ve had to live with that so often.
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He wasn’t very good before the last ruck.
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He was no different to what we see every week
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This is an interesting development though.
If not entirely predictable.
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