Getting to the business end now, so things are hotting up or cooling down, depending on your perspective. Three teams still in it, and away fixtures for the two favourites, so could be a good round of games. Could be.
As the times demand a number of contradictory but yet plausible expert views, the blog’s favourite possibly evil nine-year-old is on board this week to provide the comfort of a second equally valid set of predictions. She also gives her assessment of each team’s most important player. And that would be the one who scores all the points. Won’t win if you don’t score points.
Wales v France
While Friday night Six Nations games shouldn’t be condoned, it does provide a good opportunity for the TV-watching audience to enjoy a match without ruining dinner/missing dinner/having to make alternative arrangements to get children to ballet classes. Some might think Wales will have gained confidence from their showing in the second half at Twickenham, but only being able to score tries when playing desperate catch-up has been a bit of a thing at times under Wayne Pivac, and the first-half wet fart, along with the Dublin débâcle, don’t give much cause for hope. On the flip side, Wales have been dogged as anything in recent home games against the Boks and the Scots, so could just about conceivably grind something out. On the selection front, Pivac has gone full Gats, chucking in Navidi when he’s probably not fully fit, presumably on the basis that it worked with Faletau the other week. Wales also field three out of four players who suffered head injuries at Twickenham. Whilst I’m sure they have all passed the various tests, it does make you wonder if Wales deserve anything this time out at all.
France were absolutely ruthless when it came to taking their chances at Murrayfield, and anything like that will surely mean a big win for them. Dupont has been passed fit, Penaud misses out due to Covid with Villiere returning, and otherwise they’re as you were bar one further bench change. Hopefully Geraint Pillock’s cousin Dylan Cretin will make it on to the field at some point. If we do see them in full flow with the glorious short passing and brute force of the forwards and some sparkling back play, then there will be nothing to begrudge. So can Wales drag them down? France have had off spells in some of their recent games and come roaring back, but could they be due a real off day? Clutching at straws maybe, but anyway:
CMW’s prediction: Can’t be going for three away wins and don’t know which one of the two big games to go for as the upset.
Wales 26-23 France
Middle One’s prediction: Dan Biggar doesn’t always make good decisions – shouldn’t have gone for that drop goal when they could have scored a try against Scotland. He’s always shouting at people so might not be a very nice man. Don’t know who kicks the goals for France, but it’s probably some really super person who never misses.
Wales 21-28 France
Italy v Scotland
The phrase ‘nothing to see here’ could perhaps be used for a lot of Italy’s Six Nations games, but their last outing may well have trumped all previous efforts on that front. Will being on the wrong end of an unfair and pretty arcane part of an unfair and pretty arcane rule that is only necessary because rugby is full of cheating bastards inspire them to great heights? Or will their challenge fade to nothing at the first sign of Scotland being anywhere near on their game? I know which I expect. The Scots will be missing Duhan van der Merwe after a slightly unfortunate sending off playing for Worcester, but with plenty of other exciting runners and their pack likely to dominate this should be a comfortable win.
CMW’s prediction: Italy 13 Scotland 37
Middle One’s prediction: Finn Russell needs to take things more seriously if Scotland are going to win anything, he’s always smiling and laughing even when he’s done something bad. I don’t smile when I’m playing netball and he shouldn’t either. Who kicks goals for Italy? Who knows and who cares?
Italy 17 Scotland 43
England v Ireland
England took advantage of some sloppy Welsh forward play to get their lead last time out with soft penalties and an even softer try, and then didn’t do a lot after that. That said, they had looked good in parts up to the point of not scoring tries during the first fifty minutes or so, and at Murrayfield they also had a lot of the game without capitalising on it. Is there something fundamentally wrong or is it just all waiting to click and if so could this be the day? Considered opinion on Ovally Balls has been that playing two proper flankers wouldn’t go amiss. I had been hoping to see Lewis Ludlow, previously unknown to me though reading around the subject I see that this was probably because he was known as Dinham for a very long time. Sadly Eddie has cast him aside, leaving Curry as the only flanker left in the squad. He’s an injury doubt so we may yet see two number eights and a second row starting in the back row. I had heard that George Ford would be missing out with the apparently not very good George Furbank as the outside half cover on the bench, but see that that was just some training squad shenanigans and Ford is back in, though it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Smith play the whole game anyway.
Passing over the Italian hooker-based non-event, Ireland’s last game was the defeat in Paris. I felt they might have got a proper hiding if it hadn’t been for Hansen’s skilful but freakish try. However, the comeback in the second half was impressive to the point that they could have gone on to win, so it’s hard to know what to make of that performance. It’s good to see significant Ulster presence in the wider squad; I’m sure they’ll all be there on match day. [Ed: harrumph!] There’s a lot more pace in Ireland’s passing this season, some of the play between the forwards is great to watch, and they look a really good team when they get going. England, though, always have a chance to win at home no matter whom they’re playing.
CMW’s prediction: Can’t be going for three away wins etc.
England 26-19 Ireland
Middle One’s prediction: Marcus Smith is the annoying-looking one who’s always really pleased with himself and has weird hair. Don’t like him though he does score a lot of points sometimes. A boy in my class wants to be Johnny Sexton and seems to support him even though he should be supporting England. Like Johnny Sexton, he plays rugby when he isn’t injured though he broke his collar-bone scoring a try the first time they were allowed to tackle each other properly, so can only play on his own at the moment.
England 27-35 Ireland
Bowwow Woofwoof Grrrr as David Bowie would say.
Plausible Expert Views by ClydeMillarWynant and The Middle One.
Onna telly this week
Friday 11th March
| Sharks v Scarlets | 17:10 | TG4 / BBC2 Wales / Premier Sports 1 |
| Italy v Scotland (U20s) | 19:00 | BBC iPlayer / website |
| Wales v France | 20:00 | BBC1 / S4C |
Saturday 12th March
| Bulls v Munster | 14:05 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Italy v Scotland | 14:15 | ITV |
| England v Ireland | 17:15 | ITV |
| England v Ireland (U20s) | 19:15 | BBC iPlayer / website |
| Ulster v Leinster | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Montpellier v Toulon | 20:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
Sunday 13th March
| Lions v Cardiff | 14:00 | S4C / Premier Sports 2 | ||
| Northampton v Wasps | 15:00 | ITV / BT Sport 1 | ||
| Stormers v Zebre | 16:05 | FreeSports | ||
| Clermont v Bordeaux | 20:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
Ovally Balls 
One thing I’d like us to do is have a few guys running on to set plays from deeper. France did it for their try with Villiere and it’s a very nice way of attacking space.
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Not a way to kick Scotland, ticht. You’ve said a few times how good the Scottish defence has been in the last couple of years and France did that to them. We scored 20 tries in last year’s tournament so maybe our attack was working better then.
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“Not a way to kick Scotland, ticht.”
in a conversation exclusively about Wales’ attack you’ve brought Scotland into it twice.
It’s like a nervous twice with you
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twice – twitch
the auto correct strikes again
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I’d like to see quotes about my comments on Scotland’s defence.
I may have mentioned that it is better with Harris at 13 than with Huw Jones, but to be honest a lot of that is probably down to Steve Tandy
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It’s not an attack on the Scottish team (or you). It’s a point of comparison. For example, Scotland’s defence was good against England – not a great attacking team at the moment – and ok against Wales – a weaker attacking team for reasons above – but got biffed by the French, who didn’t attack so well today against Wales, who defended or rather played the game in a way to limit the French attack that Scotland didn’t.
If Hogg catches the ball, maybe Scotland win.
If Foxy catches the ball, maybe Wales win.
Sadly for us both, France won both.
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look, it doesn’t matter at all
You can take a criticism of Wales’ attacking structure and call out the number of tries scored against Scotland in response if you like.
There’s no one stopping you, fill your boots
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Getting back to tonight, I enjoyed the game, it was full of errors and some questionable kicking, but it was tense and unfolded in an intriguing fashion.
It definitely held my attention, I think France deserved the win over a tough and dogged opponent, Wales were much better than most, including me, gave them credit for, but Cardiff is never an easy place to play for the visitor.
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Well, you ignored this bit here, which is pretty clear:
“I reckon we’re approaching ok but it’d be good to have two wide players in the back row as that’d suit the Pivac way of playing better. Well, you can see from last year when we had Tips and Toby with Navidi in the back row for a few games.”
That’s what he’d like to play, it’s the Pivac, but you’ve got to take into account the opposition as well so that’s why he picked the side he picked today with Seb Davies in the back row to negate France’s play to a degree. And that did sort of work
Wales’s attacking game today wasn’t just about the Biggar punt, although it probably did us best. And it can improve.
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My eye was drawn to the following on the subject of the Welsh attack;
“we have as many tries so far in the comp as Scotland with their super flash outside half.”
“France can be a top attacking team, not many sides put 6 tries on Scotland at Murrayfield”
” You’ve said a few times how good the Scottish defence has been in the last couple of years and France did that to them”
“Scotland’s defence was good against England – not a great attacking team at the moment – and ok against Wales – a weaker attacking team for reasons above – but got biffed by the French, who didn’t attack so well today against Wales, who defended or rather played the game in a way to limit the French attack that Scotland didn’t.”
As I say, it doesn’t matter, there are important things going on in the world, but a post that mentioned that the Welsh attack wasn’t exactly the most exciting thing in rugby got those responses.
It was always going to be okay to say, “aye we could get the midfield and back three running a bit more”
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I hope CMW had a good time at the pub
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It’s our “dangerous back three”, thank you very much. Your words not mine.
Yeah, it’d be nice if we could, as i’ve said in this chat. I’ve also mentioned why it isn’t always possible and possibly wasn’t today.
Anyway, good luck to Scotland tomorrow,
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So, assuming Ireland biff England tomorrow, does that leave Ireland needing England to beat France in Paris next week, while they themselves need to beat Scotland ? Or have we got strange permutations of bonus points to take into account ? I suppose it is theoretically possible for England to win it too. Can’t see them winning either, tbh.
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Got a sneaky suspicion that England are going to pull it off today to set up a proper le crunch next week. Waited up for the match last night but wine snuck up on me and I missed all but the last five minutes. All I have to show for it is a large hangover.
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“I hope CMW had a good time at the pub”
I did, but I had too much to drink.
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1-0 to The Middle One on the predictions. That so easily could have been the upset, never mind.
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As a neutral I really enjoyed last night’s game. Three thoughts:
-Navidi and Faletau were excellent and really got the French back row on the back foot for much of the game
– I thought the Welsh tactics made the most of their resources and nearly did it. They are a dogged bunch with true rugby in their veins
– No team can play exactly the same way against all opposition – that underpinned why last night was so interesting
– French should have been yellow carded for a poor tackle/clear-out near the end
– overall, I thought the ref did well.
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I enjoyed last night too, like I say Wales in Cardiff are a very difficult side to beat. Grand Slams should not come easy, they should be difficult and there are always very tough matches along the way. Last night was almost the opposite of what happened at Murrayfield where everything that France tried came off, they were on fire won well.
Moving on to today, whilst I don’t exactly have the fear, Italy always target this match as their most-winnable and for good reason. Scotland can’t afford to keep up the very poor support at the breakdown, our carriers get isolated and either turned over or penalised far too often. It’s kills the whole team, and we might as well have the back three that we had fifteen years ago if we keep doing this.
Speaking of which, Duhan is a big miss, not only for his tackle-busting runs, but for the defensive cover that he attracts.
With Finn being short of his best form we’ve had to rely on “Give it to Darcy/Blair/Duhan”, but we need to sort out possession first, and by that I mean quality front foot ball at speed.
(Kinghorn is another absentee, he would have started on the wing if he had been available)
We’ve gone for two proper sevens in hot-prospect Darge and McFuckface, along with short-arse-for-a-number-eight Matt Fagerson it means we sacrifice having a third line out jumper, match that with Turner’s less than reliable darts and I can see an area for Italy to go after Scotland.
Scotland should win, but it would not surprise me in the least if Italy do a job on us.
England v Ireland is very tough to call. In Dublin I don’t think there would be any doubt about the winner, but in London it’s a different matter. I think I went for England by three in the Bru, but I’m really not sure, I think this could be a belter and a very tight belter at that.
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“I think this could be a belter and a very tight belter at that.”
Sounds uncomfortable.
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@Ticht – You make a good case against Scotland, but I’m not sure there’s really a case for Italy so even if some of your concerns turn out to be valid it’s hard to see it mattering all that much.
I now need England to win to save face with The Middle One which is not a great position to be in even if it was foreseeable. She can’t lose though obviously she really wants an England win.
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‘“I think this could be a belter and a very tight belter at that.”
Sounds uncomfortable.’
It could make yer pips squeak
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At the risk of going full-on Eeyore, beyond the under dog, I can’t see this Scotland side winning in Dublin, avoiding a hiding will be a victory of sorts. Unless we sort out the breakdown penalties we will get that hiding from Ireland. Today I want us to look like a decent side with a pack that can provide good ball.
We should win this afternoon if we can do that.
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‘Mon Scotland! Make The Middle One proud!
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And just like that! Lovely stuff!
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Big Blast by Turner and some good speed and passing.
Bulls 16-3 up v Munster.
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Sam Johnson’s a dirty try-thief 😅
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Scotland: “Oops”
Italy: “Hold my beer”
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Oh my dog, we got away with one there. Bad Finn, then great break.
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Old-fashioned crossfield kick by Steyn. Italy are real puffers.
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Great play by Bruno. Well done to Italy.
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Ouch:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNpZjfQWYAEPi08?format=jpg
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Bugger.
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Kendellen in the bin. Bulls 26-3 up after 37 minutes.
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That was good by Pierce, stopping play for possible head-knock. Compared to Tomos Williams being left crawling on the floor last night.
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Nice move and nice try.
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Harris’s second. Nice training ground move.
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Not been brilliant, but at least we’re taking our chances this week.
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Nice dart there!
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Lovely from Darcy! Good patience from us (for a change).
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If that isn’t forward, that’s a brilliant try!
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Nice try from the young guy on his ‘dayboo’! (He looks about 12).
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Ooh, that was a nice ball back inside, for Italy to score.
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We are going to get our heids to play with in Dublin
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Nice final say from Italy!
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The Wee Boy scores again! Italy have played well this last 20 minutes.
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Fun game, well done Italy. Whats up with Finn ?
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Almost a great comeback in Pretoria but Munster just beaten 29-24 by the Bulls. Bismarck got a red card so the Bulls played played the last 10 or so minutes a man down.
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Thought Finn had an alright game. Did some good things, made a couple of try-scoring passes, had some decent kicks, also did some rubbish stuff.
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Well, this could be a red.
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The only mitigation I can see, is that Ryan checked his run and slightly changed direction. Can’t argue with a red though.
Uphill for England now.
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