Getting to the business end now, so things are hotting up or cooling down, depending on your perspective. Three teams still in it, and away fixtures for the two favourites, so could be a good round of games. Could be.
As the times demand a number of contradictory but yet plausible expert views, the blog’s favourite possibly evil nine-year-old is on board this week to provide the comfort of a second equally valid set of predictions. She also gives her assessment of each team’s most important player. And that would be the one who scores all the points. Won’t win if you don’t score points.
Wales v France
While Friday night Six Nations games shouldn’t be condoned, it does provide a good opportunity for the TV-watching audience to enjoy a match without ruining dinner/missing dinner/having to make alternative arrangements to get children to ballet classes. Some might think Wales will have gained confidence from their showing in the second half at Twickenham, but only being able to score tries when playing desperate catch-up has been a bit of a thing at times under Wayne Pivac, and the first-half wet fart, along with the Dublin débâcle, don’t give much cause for hope. On the flip side, Wales have been dogged as anything in recent home games against the Boks and the Scots, so could just about conceivably grind something out. On the selection front, Pivac has gone full Gats, chucking in Navidi when he’s probably not fully fit, presumably on the basis that it worked with Faletau the other week. Wales also field three out of four players who suffered head injuries at Twickenham. Whilst I’m sure they have all passed the various tests, it does make you wonder if Wales deserve anything this time out at all.
France were absolutely ruthless when it came to taking their chances at Murrayfield, and anything like that will surely mean a big win for them. Dupont has been passed fit, Penaud misses out due to Covid with Villiere returning, and otherwise they’re as you were bar one further bench change. Hopefully Geraint Pillock’s cousin Dylan Cretin will make it on to the field at some point. If we do see them in full flow with the glorious short passing and brute force of the forwards and some sparkling back play, then there will be nothing to begrudge. So can Wales drag them down? France have had off spells in some of their recent games and come roaring back, but could they be due a real off day? Clutching at straws maybe, but anyway:
CMW’s prediction: Can’t be going for three away wins and don’t know which one of the two big games to go for as the upset.
Wales 26-23 France
Middle One’s prediction: Dan Biggar doesn’t always make good decisions – shouldn’t have gone for that drop goal when they could have scored a try against Scotland. He’s always shouting at people so might not be a very nice man. Don’t know who kicks the goals for France, but it’s probably some really super person who never misses.
Wales 21-28 France
Italy v Scotland
The phrase ‘nothing to see here’ could perhaps be used for a lot of Italy’s Six Nations games, but their last outing may well have trumped all previous efforts on that front. Will being on the wrong end of an unfair and pretty arcane part of an unfair and pretty arcane rule that is only necessary because rugby is full of cheating bastards inspire them to great heights? Or will their challenge fade to nothing at the first sign of Scotland being anywhere near on their game? I know which I expect. The Scots will be missing Duhan van der Merwe after a slightly unfortunate sending off playing for Worcester, but with plenty of other exciting runners and their pack likely to dominate this should be a comfortable win.
CMW’s prediction: Italy 13 Scotland 37
Middle One’s prediction: Finn Russell needs to take things more seriously if Scotland are going to win anything, he’s always smiling and laughing even when he’s done something bad. I don’t smile when I’m playing netball and he shouldn’t either. Who kicks goals for Italy? Who knows and who cares?
Italy 17 Scotland 43
England v Ireland
England took advantage of some sloppy Welsh forward play to get their lead last time out with soft penalties and an even softer try, and then didn’t do a lot after that. That said, they had looked good in parts up to the point of not scoring tries during the first fifty minutes or so, and at Murrayfield they also had a lot of the game without capitalising on it. Is there something fundamentally wrong or is it just all waiting to click and if so could this be the day? Considered opinion on Ovally Balls has been that playing two proper flankers wouldn’t go amiss. I had been hoping to see Lewis Ludlow, previously unknown to me though reading around the subject I see that this was probably because he was known as Dinham for a very long time. Sadly Eddie has cast him aside, leaving Curry as the only flanker left in the squad. He’s an injury doubt so we may yet see two number eights and a second row starting in the back row. I had heard that George Ford would be missing out with the apparently not very good George Furbank as the outside half cover on the bench, but see that that was just some training squad shenanigans and Ford is back in, though it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Smith play the whole game anyway.
Passing over the Italian hooker-based non-event, Ireland’s last game was the defeat in Paris. I felt they might have got a proper hiding if it hadn’t been for Hansen’s skilful but freakish try. However, the comeback in the second half was impressive to the point that they could have gone on to win, so it’s hard to know what to make of that performance. It’s good to see significant Ulster presence in the wider squad; I’m sure they’ll all be there on match day. [Ed: harrumph!] There’s a lot more pace in Ireland’s passing this season, some of the play between the forwards is great to watch, and they look a really good team when they get going. England, though, always have a chance to win at home no matter whom they’re playing.
CMW’s prediction: Can’t be going for three away wins etc.
England 26-19 Ireland
Middle One’s prediction: Marcus Smith is the annoying-looking one who’s always really pleased with himself and has weird hair. Don’t like him though he does score a lot of points sometimes. A boy in my class wants to be Johnny Sexton and seems to support him even though he should be supporting England. Like Johnny Sexton, he plays rugby when he isn’t injured though he broke his collar-bone scoring a try the first time they were allowed to tackle each other properly, so can only play on his own at the moment.
England 27-35 Ireland
Bowwow Woofwoof Grrrr as David Bowie would say.
Plausible Expert Views by ClydeMillarWynant and The Middle One.
Onna telly this week
Friday 11th March
| Sharks v Scarlets | 17:10 | TG4 / BBC2 Wales / Premier Sports 1 |
| Italy v Scotland (U20s) | 19:00 | BBC iPlayer / website |
| Wales v France | 20:00 | BBC1 / S4C |
Saturday 12th March
| Bulls v Munster | 14:05 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Italy v Scotland | 14:15 | ITV |
| England v Ireland | 17:15 | ITV |
| England v Ireland (U20s) | 19:15 | BBC iPlayer / website |
| Ulster v Leinster | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Montpellier v Toulon | 20:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
Sunday 13th March
| Lions v Cardiff | 14:00 | S4C / Premier Sports 2 | ||
| Northampton v Wasps | 15:00 | ITV / BT Sport 1 | ||
| Stormers v Zebre | 16:05 | FreeSports | ||
| Clermont v Bordeaux | 20:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
Ovally Balls 
Anyone (Slade/Flair am looking you) have any experience going on holiday around Gigondas/Vacqueyras in Provence. Mrs Craigs is gonna be the big four oh in April and I’ve booked a place there. She said she wanted to walk around some fields in the sun, drinking wine. I think I’ve picked a good spot and have enjoyed wine from that region but if there are any tips please let me know.
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Returning to England vs Ireland, third game I’ve seen that England have been on top physically ( I watched most of the games vs Scotland and Wales) without threatening to score tries….
I’m not watching closely enough to diagnose – I can tell you what I thought Ireland did well/badly – but 1, 1 and 0 (albeit with 14) isn’t impressive.
Maybe it’ll “click” but right now you can’t imagine they’ll stress France next week enough – might generate sufficient penalties to score 15-18 but I doubt that’s a matchwinning total in Paris. Again, I’m not watching like a coach but I don’t see how they’re trying to score tries.
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Sounds an excellent idea… my wife has a significant birthday next year …. I may steal this one…. now youve put it in my head …might go Toulouse/Carcassonne…
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Trisk – you could always come to Kent. We have wine, fields and occasional sun. Can’t guarantee the quality or frequency of these things though.
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Trisk, if you go to Toulouse/Carcasonne area, there is a pretty little town called Mirepoix that is worth a sightseeing trip.
Also Montségur is a Cathar Castle on a hill that is worth the leg work to climb up to.
That was my (sort of ) area when I lived in France. The people, the food, the weather, the rugby – all brilliant.
I loved it there.
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Also – Blanquette de Limoux, it’s said to be the oldest sparkling wine in France, and the locals claim it to be better than Champagne, it’s also a hell of a lot cheaper – the local owner/chef at my local hotel said he’d put up Crémant de Limoux against any Champagne at any price.
I don’t know anything about wine, but he was very passionate about it.
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He (the chef) learned English whilst cooking in Newcastle, so he’d greet you with “Ay Bonnie Lad” in a French accent.
He made the most amazing roast beef and Yorkshire puddings, beautiful.
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trisk, I agree, can’t see them winning in Paris.
They’ve got three very young, very inexperienced players at 9, 10 and 15, all are good but it’s asking a lot for them to run a show at test level. For instance, Smith has the experience of Care and the power (and skills) of Esterhuizen at Harlequins.
They also badly need someone to make some really hard metres for them. Maybe they should have someone like Simmons pushing for those hard runs in the centre but not sure that’d work against France as Danty and Fickou are a solid defensive pairing in the midfield.
Their pack is doing ok at the moment and Jones is plainly going for something to win the World Cup.
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Jones is plainly going for something to win the World Cup.
Perhaps should have started earlier then.
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Craigs, great choice, especially in April where it’s not going to be too hot.
Beautiful area. Lots of excellent wines, mostly reds but also some delicious sweet, very sweet white called Beaumes de Venise, perfect for apéritif. In most villages they organise wine tours and tasting in English. Lots of olive oil too, some old mills can be visited.
If you have a car, don’t miss Les Dentelles de Montmirail, a stunning low range mountain, great for a walk or climbing. But when it comes to climbing, you must go to Mont Ventoux, of Tour de France fame, a barren lone mountain, looks like the moon out of nowhere. Am sure you’ll enjoy your stay.
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Craigs,
I really don’t know the rea at all well – so can’t add much to the above.
What France is brilliant at is providing zillions of ‘unknown’ rural locations that are perfect in themselves, plus all the old towns are crammed with culture.
France’s population is quite dispersed so there are few really huge towns/cities and almost everywhere is crammed with sights and history.
A little pre-trip research will be well rewarded – especially in terms of where to stay. There are lots and lots of beautifully romantic settings to be discovered.
I would advise not being drawn to the brightest lights but exploring around historic or art themes for example.
Cathars of course but also Van Gogh and other impressionists.
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Rugby………………….
I think EJ’s best tactic for dealing with Danty/Fickou etc is not to confront them but aim to play behind them – they are very powerful and we have nothing in the backs to confront them but plenty to outwit them
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The Middle One takes some satisfaction from her predictions, but is quite disappointed with the results. The way she sees this is:
She is NOT pleased with Ireland for beating England.
She is not pleased with France for beating Wales – this shows she is a bit more grown up than I am.
She only got to see the England game which she did enjoy to an extent. Her other comments:
She doesn’t see why that boy in her class wants to be Johnny Sexton, he’s just as annoying as Marcus Smith (this was in response to the camera following him around when he was subbed near the end). She also thinks he should be made to get on with taking his kicks.
She doesn’t like the man with the blue teeth’s face when he’s running around with the ball (this in response to my suggestion that Lowe should get man of the match if it was going to be an Ireland player).
Number four for England should obviously have been man of the match (the black man, him, there, number four!). I very much agreed with her on this and praised her last method of identification (she also knows his name now).
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She also didn’t really believe me when I told her I was pretty much supporting England towards the end due to their magnificent effort after the sending off. She doesn’t get much wrong.
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“What does ‘pretty much supporting’ even mean? You’re either supporting them or you’re not and I know you always want England to lose.”
“Well yes, but apart from that…”
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Lions 30-20 up against Cardiff in Joburg. They were 24-6 up at one stage but Cardiff came back strongly either side of the break. 20 to go and Cardiff have the 5m lineout. Into the final quarter.
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Looks like Cardiff are in trouble for a no-arms clearout at the ruck on the Lions 5m. Fuck, could be two quite frankly! Dacey gets yellow and the Lions are off the hook. For now. And then throw in skew at the linout. Scrum ‘Diff. Early shove Lions and they’ve botched another promising position.
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Lions handling in the first 30 minutes was superb. Been pretty crappy since them. Cardiff with a lineout inside their own 22. They clear but the Lions are playing in the area they want to- Cardiff’s final third.
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Now a defensive lineout for the Lions. Cardiff take the jumper out and penalty Lions with 5 to go. Lineout on the halfway. Both sides chucking it around but neither side really has the handling or structure to get it over the line. Lions scrum in the Diff 22. Time up as the Cardiff 9 interferes repeatedly with the put in. Looks like the Lions have found their MOJO and got the BP at the death!
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And awarded! 37-20 final score. Not reflective of the match.
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Cardiff were for closer to the Lions than that suggests, but neither side was very good overall. Adam Jones from Wales to ref the Stormers-Zebre match. Nobody gonna question his decisions! Oh. It’s 28 year old slightly dreamy Adam Jones. Nit in the Mike Phillips league, obviously.
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Stormers are ripping it up here. Three tries in 12 minutes.
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Bonus point inside 25 minutes. Zebre look shell-shocked. And fairly clueless. Some silky running by the Stormers backs though. 28-0.
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33-0 at HT. This could get nasty.
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38-7 entering the final quarter. Zebre winning the 2nd half on the scoreboard. What do I know? Bugger all, as the Stormers launch an attack from inside their half and send Zas over again after a few phases. 43-7 as another conversion attempt is wayward.
Evan Roos, the young Stormers 8 has been good tonight. Many feel he should’ve been capped on the end of year tour last year.
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Straight red for Asaeli Tuivuaka, the Zebre 11 for a swinging arm and the Stormers rumble over for another try. 48-7. Still 3 to go.
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55-7 final score. Seabelo Senatla with 3 of the 9 tries. Dominant from the Stormers, but against weak opposition. 4 wins on home soil for the Saffer sides though. Good weekend.
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Jonathan Liew has an article on the Guardian about Sexton’s ‘long goodbye’. The Middle One could have saved them some space with a better one:
“All this fuss about Johnny Sexton is even more annoying than Marcus Smith’s face. Discuss.”
The BTL community would be just as happy and the standard of comment attracted would probably be similar.
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Ah well, the fuss may be annoying but there is no obvious replacement. Carbery does not look like an international fly-half, although I thought the same about Sexton at first. Hopefully he’ll improve.
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Just watched Rugby Special and seen Thomas Williams get knocked out tackling Danty just before the 1st French try. It is really nasty viewing as he staggers about trying to get up and then stay on his feet and get in the defensive line too. Someone should have stopped the game right there or been on the way out onto the pitch with a stretcher. Mind, I didn’t spot it watching it live on tv, and it was only a few seconds before the try was scored.
Hope the lad is alright, he looks like he might still have a headache.
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tackle is 8.02 mins into the match, and the next twenty seconds makes for pretty unpleasant TV.
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To be fair to the medical staff, on third viewing, two guys were on the pitch trying to get him off as the try was scored, but the tough little 9 waves them off and jogs towards the posts to defend again, before finally being walked off.
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SBT, there was a moment in our game v Italy where ref Luke Pierce stopped the game and insisted that an Italian player “take a knee” because he thought he’d taken a bliw to the head.
It was a very good piece of refereeing, and not at all easy considering how much refs have to be looking for during a match.
The player went off for an HIA, which I think he failed.
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It was Brex, ticht. He came back on after half time.
They get info sent on to them by touch judges and the TMO so it’s 4 people who didn’t pick up Tomos W’s injury.
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One thing that annoyed me a bit on Saturday was Sexton got called for being in front of the kicker when Ringrose punted through. He was, fair enough, but Reynal shouted stop and Sexton did about 20 metres away from where the England player fielded the ball. Kickable penalty to England in Ireland’s half.
Contrast this with one in the Scotland game. Early on, Braley put up a box kick and Ioane hared after it. Luke Pearce shouted , ‘Winger, stop. 11, winger, stop’ and Ioane does eventually but about 5 metres from where a Scot should have fielded the ball. None did the ball bounced out and Scotland had a line out, rather than a penalty back in the Italian 22.
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@TomP – Don’t think the Sexton one needed to be given to be honest.
Luke Pearce gave some pretty odd decisions at times though obviously it’s a very difficult job. The one I’d really raise an eyebrow at was the Scotland advantage from an Italian knock on where Watson then accidentally kicked it back about three times into his own 22 trying to pick it up. They kept going backwards at a few rucks after that and I don’t think they can ever got within 20m of where they could have had the scrum, but he still called advantage over when they eventually had to kick.
Think he had a good enough game overall and the thing with the possible head injury had to be right.
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Was interesting that a couple of Scotland tries that had obvious things to check were dealt with by the TMO without anything in the way of a song and dance routine. No idea if the right decisions were arrived at, but assume that they were. Wonder if we’ll see more of this in future.
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The contrast between the decisions was what irritated. Of the 4 possible combinations of outcomes that was the only I would’nt’ve expected.
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nice apostrophising by me, there.
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Cheers Flair!
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Stop whatever you are doing and watch this
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Can’t delay the hols until the world cup ? I had a fantastic 2007 world cup watching games in a variety of bars round Armangac, with good coffee, a nice vintage brandy and excellent knowledgeable patrons.
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2007 World Cup was awesome for me too – I flew to Europe on the Saturday of the QFs and landed in Paris early on Sunday. My sister met me at Charles de Gaulle for coffee and croissants and we were surrounded by glum looking Kiwis. Must be badly hungover I remarked, and then my sister laughed because I didn’t know that both the Kiwis and Aussies had been knocked out whilst I was flying. Then got to watch the Bok SF in a bar in Bilbao with an Argentine rugby team who were touring Spain – great guys who mocked me a bit for wearing my Bok jersey but were superb throughout and we drank the bar to pieces after the match. Awesome stuff!
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My main memory of the 2007 World Cup was watching the opening game at a mate’s house who used to live on this street here. Because I was supporting France he and his wife were shouting for Argentina.
Argentina were good that year, not only did they win that opening match, they beat us in the QF, that was when we always seemed to lose to Argentina in a World Cup.
They ended up 3rd after beating France again in the play off. (TY Wiki)
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Flew to NZ the day after they lost so saw plenty of crying. Got laughed at for being Welsh by Fijian car-hire brothers on arrival. Watched England’s dreary semi-final and the miserable final in hostels in Wanaka and Dunedin. Or was it Christchurch and Te Anau? Such unmemorable matches.
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“that was when we always seemed to lose to Argentina in a World Cup.”
Thought that was Ireland. Have checked now and feel OK as they’d already lost to them.
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Have looked at the dates and think it must have been Wanaka and Dunedin. Definitely ran over a load of fluffy ducklings in front of appalled cafe-goers in Wanaka, was going very slowly looking for a right turn, that sticks in the mind more.
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@cmw
I think that’s a bit harsh. It was the worst England team since the mid-80s and they somehow managed to find a way of getting to the final. Watching as an England fan and having zero expectations of winning (particularly the QF and SF) and then actually beating the opposition was an absolutely fascinating experience.
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@OT – I can imagine it was. And as you say was quite an achievement from that team. From most other perspectives they were a little dull though even with the surprising outcomes (or surprising closeness in the final).
QF – that bald centre missed some kicks
SF – French fullback who was only any good at centre fucked up right at the start and then nothing else happened
Final – There was some debate over a try that wasn’t
I’m surprised I can remember that much.
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Obviously the final being between my two least favourite teams wasn’t going to help. Not the case by 2019 as being able to be pleased for Deebee had moved the Boks up one space by that point.
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