And now, the end is near….
That sounds good. I should put it in a song.
That can wait, though. The real reason you’re reading this gibberish is to find out what the results are going to be on Saturday.
First up, Wales against Italy. Wales have scored 5 tries to Italy’s 4. That makes you think it might be close! Until you realise that Wales have conceded 7 to Italy’s 24. Which is a bit of a problem for Italy. (Nae shit, Sherlock). Italy played better against Scotland than they had in the other games, so is this the time they can back it up with another good performance? Probably not.
Wales have struggled a bit this year. Thumped by Ireland, scraped past Scotland, somehow losing to England despite scoring all the tries and never really looking like they would beat France. So, can Italy pull off a huge shock and get past Wales in Wales?
Let’s ask Predict-A-Bear!
Answer: Nah. Might be closer than expected, but probably Wales by 15.
Next up is Ireland against Scotland. (Sob). This was going to be The Year! The year to end (Way too many to count) Years Of Hurt! A brilliant start! And then everything turned Scottish. A disappointing – to say the least – defeat in Wales, thumped by France, then showing what we can do against Italy, before deciding that things were far too easy and that we should turn Scottish again.
Never mind, it’s only Ireland. The team that has been reinvigorated under Farrell The Elder. The team that beat the All Blacks. The team that thumped Wales, gave France their closest game so far and who managed to be disappointed in only scoring 57 points against 15, 14, 13, 12 man Italy. They have scored 20 tries to our 10, conceded 3 to our 11, Sexton’s on his Neverending Farewell Tour and have the might of Ulster (cheering them on from the sidelines).
So. Any hope for Scotland? Well … Ireland’s scrum looked strangely out of sorts against England. They also seemed a bit too rushed at times. And Finn bloody owes us one! So of course, Toonie sticks him on the bench. But probably none.
But let’s find out from Predict-A-Bear!
Answer: Nah. Much as I would love to be wrong, Ireland will win this fairly comfortably, by about 15 (at least). Can’t see us even getting any sort of bonus point. (Sobs again.)
Finally, the main event! France against England! France at home and going for a Grand Slam against a (fairly) average England team. (I mean, come on, WE beat them!) Eddie’s playing mind games again, although the only people he seems to confuse with these are his players. They have looked fairly toothless in attack (7 tries scored – and they’ve played Italy!), wonder boy Smith hasn’t quite lived up to the hype (but he will), the midfield has a Manu-sized hole (but then it frequently does) and Jack Nowell will probably end up hooking in the front row. And please (don’t) let Joe Marler take more throw ins. On the good side, Maro’s been a right annoying bastard on the pitch.
But France! They have everything: they can play tight; they can be expansive as (cliché alert) only France can. They have the best player in the world, and a few others who would probably be in a world XV, strength in depth and Shaun Edwards as defence coach. They haven’t perhaps scored quite as many tries as their play would suggest and had to tough it out against Wales.
So who will win?
Predict-A-Bear to the rescue!
Answer: A France win and Grand Slam!
Predict-A-Bear whispered sweet nothings into BorderBoy‘s ear.
Onna telly this week
Friday 18th March
| Bulls v Scarlets | 17:10 | BBC2 Wales / Premier Sports 2 |
| Glasgow v Edinburgh | 19:35 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Newcastle v Leicester | 19:45 | BT Sport 2 |
Saturday 19th March
| Lions v Munster | 12:00 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 2 |
| Wales v Italy | 14:15 | BBC1 / iPlayer |
| Sharks v Zebre | 16:30 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Ireland v Scotland | 16:45 | ITV |
| France v England | 20:00 | ITV |
Sunday 20th March
| Stormers v Cardiff | 12:00 | S4C / Premier Sports 1 | ||
| Wales v Italy (U20s) | 14:00 | BBC1 Wales / iPlayer / Website | ||
| Ireland v Scotland (U20s) | 17:00 | BBC1 iPlayer / Website | ||
| France v England (U20s) | 20:00 | BBC1 iPlayer / Website |
Ovally Balls 
Oh and I don’t think that study says what you think it says. The way I’m reading it, trans people who pass as their assigned gender, will pass even if pixilated.
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Refit – it’s males. That’s it. Call me a bigot, whatever.
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Refit – what a complete arsehole (Linehan).
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😅
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After all these games today, my favourite score:
Macron 28 LePen 23
Waiting for the second leg with a bit more confidence than for Ulster/ Toulouse.
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Oh, and belatedly, congratulations to Leicester. ASM may not be ( all right… are not) what they used to be ( more like a vet team actually) but Leicester were excellent.
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It’s terrible that LePen gets 23% of the vote and in doing so get the second highest proportion.
I lived in France when her father led the FN, hateful, horrible party.
Flair, do you think Macron will garner the votes from the other parties now?
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Ticht, the extreme right reached a total of 30% , which is frightening.
I still believe Macron will win the second round as LePen, besides being a covert fascist, is quite incompetent. But we’ve seen Trump, Bojo and several other clowns elected in democratic countries. The French are no better, and if the left, hard and soft, do not rally behind Macron, we could have a very nasty surprise indeed. Unlikely but possible.
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Morning all, spent a lovely weekend wine tasting in Cape Town, although it did mean I saw none of the rugby on offer. Sounds like some good games mixed with a few thrashings.
On the French elections, you’d be tempted to say “that can never happen in France” but as Flair points out, Trump, Bojo, I’d add Brexit into that. The only thing I think that is clear is that people lie to polls in the run up to elections, which is why some have been so off the mark in recent years (especially Brexit). Flair, is there a marked difference in voting patterns between the large metropolitan areas and the rural areas in terms of left/right, or as happened with Brexit and the smashing of the ‘Red Wall’ in the north of England, between identity/plurality? Also, is Macron’s constituency notably younger than Le Pen’s and will the lazy little bastards bother to vote twice in a month?
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Deebee, it’s the other way in France – Le Pen does better with the young than the old. She beats Macron in every category until 60+. Melonchon beat both in the 18-24 and 25-34 categories. Macron walks it in the 70+ category.
Melonchon has already said “Not a single vote for Marine Le Pen” so that’s something. Macron isn’t a particularly attractive figure for a left voter or for a worker but wins by default.
I wonder which way Macron voters would split if there had been a Melonchon-Le Pen run-off.
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What Tomp said. Plus the three main candidates are highly divisive. Melanchon and LePen share à lot: they were staunch Putin supporters, want out of Nato, out of Europe and end the nuclear industry. They both attract the people who feel left behind and neither would find a majority of lawmakers to govern.
In France there are actually 4 rounds to the presidential election: the first one decanters, the second one names the president, the third one a few weeks later we get to choose the MPs and the 4th one is the street.
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Macron is also divisive as he’s the face of the establishment. Young, handsome, brilliant, probably rich, the best schools etc… what’s not to dislike? Too much on the right for rhe left, too much on the left for the right, mostly interested by foreign policy, he can easily be painted as out if touch with d’ailleurs reality.
Am quite afraid those who voted Melenchon won’t bother to vote Macron. Melenchon himself, as ambiguous as ever, only called for them to not vote for LePen. Big difference.
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He also wants people to work 3 years more than they do at the moment, which is all right if you’re young, handsome, brilliant, probably rich, the best schools etc but not quite so appealing for a lot of others.
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32 years ago today this happened. Fergie got lucky.
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Pensionable age is a problem in many countries and France is no different, a quick Google tells me that the birth rate is falling, life expectancy has gone up from 66 to 84 since 1950 with the pensionable age being 62.
Personally I’d tax the corporations till the pips squeak, but then people tell me that is where pensions are held as shares (not all, obviously)
It’s not an easy circle to square, as they say
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Melenchon is now in quite a powerful position of influence – which key issues will he try to get Macron to adopt in exchange for active voter support?
Overall, it looks like it will be close unless the ‘don’t knows’ actively reject Le Pen – who hasn’t changed her principles much, just been quiet about them so far.
Hilarious interview on TV last night with Marion Marshall-Le Pen – would she now support Marine having been actively supporting her rival so far?
Completely avoided the question.
Seems to me that the further right Le Pen moves in order to garner the far right votes then the more she becomes unelectable overall.
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Ticht – most of western Europe is facing the same, largely foreseeable problem. What to do. Immigration is one way to solve this problem. Lots of young, able tax payers. But I’m not sure that’s popular.
Flair/Slade – I saw lots of posters in France and one kept having a Hitler moustache drawn on him. Assuming that’s Melenchon.
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“Poundland Philomena Cunk”
Ouch.
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@ticht
So at the moment institutional pension funds invest their money in a variety of things, including shares/equities. The pension funds make a return on those investments by a) the equities going up in value and b) receiving annual shareholder dividends. If you tax these companies more to pay higher state pensions today then that will necessarily reduce the return on investment and the pensions paid out tomorrow will be much lower.
Additionally if you increase the taxes on all companies, including those who have company pension schemes where the employer contributes, then their own contributions into those schemes will reduce, reducing the pension pot for those retiring in future.
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Ot – also companies might move their headquarters to low tax locations.
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When I did my degree in the early noughts we looked at the population patterns if various countries, the ‘pension timebomb’ and economic growth. One estimate (and I can’t remember where it came from) was that with the birth rate as it was then, the UK would need a net influx of 1m people of working age per year for 50 years to maintain the economic growth as it was then. Not sure it has entirely been borne out but I was fairly staggered at the thought of ~120m people living in the UK.
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BB’s Brushes With Fame, part 700 and something.
Having lunch in Northallerton in the same cafe as Roy ‘Chubby’ Brown, and wife and daughter. Thankfully, no flying helmet or goggles. And no, I didn’t ask him who the fuck is Alice.
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The other week my lad was playing in a rugby festival in Blackheath. Apparently Hugh Grant was walking through the park. I didn’t see him.
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One of my staff had breakfast in the same hotel as some of the Boks this morning. Said they were the most charming people she’d ever met.
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@deebee
You are Prince Charles and I claim my 5 talking plants
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Fuck the talking plants, I want someone to put the toothpaste on my toothbrush.
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(Not really.)
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Deebee says it’s over rated
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Imagine the indignity.
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@OT, well, yeah, what I wrote was shorthand for that. My wife used to work for the pensions regulator, it’s been a topic of conversation here for a while. It’s not just pensions though.
We in the UK have managed to get ourselves into a position where we have “wealth” tied up in a fictitious house price Ponzi scheme – the generations below me are having to spend vastly more as a proportion of their incomes for housing that we did. My house has increased in value some 450% in the twenty years since we bought it. We could never afford it now, not even when our earning were at their peak a few years ago before retirement.
I think the only way my children will be able to own their own houses is to wait until we peg it so they can put down a deposit on something, until then they will be paying off someone else’s mortgage.
I’ve nothing against council houses, I was brought up in one and I believe we should be building far more of them, but the way the market is now it would as ludicrous a suggestion for the state to embark on a massive public house building campaign as it would for an employer to start a final salary pension scheme.
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There was a history thing on the other day and there was a job of a royal arse wiper, it was Henry VIII they were talking about.
The arse wiper used to travel around with him wherever the king went.
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Ticht, when my mum passed away in 2011, she left a small two bedroom flat in Surrey in her will to her heirs (SBT knows where it is – we shared a pub round the corner at different times of our lives). I had considered buying it, as I was travelling to the UK (and Europe) frequently in those days and it would have been a lovely place to stay when I was over, without having to pay hotel or B&B rates etc. However, by the time we came to wrapping up the estate, it’s value had risen from £130k to £280k* and the poor old SA Rand had dived by 50% in value the other way, making it unaffordable for me to purchase. This was over just under 5 years, so I can fully understand how first time buyers and younger buyers would struggle to afford property. It simply isn’t sustainable.
I also got caught out when a relative of sorts had bought property and splurged on everything from overseas holidays to completely renovating their house to cars in the UK on the promise (Thanks Gordon!) that boom and bust was a thing of the past. When property prices crashed and the person suddenly had more short-term debt than they could afford, I had to bale them out at great expense. Property ownership is great in not having to pay a landlord (other than the bank until you’ve squared that debt) but it can be a double edged sword too.
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The arse wiper used to travel around with him wherever the king went.
Bojo’s arse wiper to Churchill’s king in my estimation, since Boris loves the comparison of him and Winston so much.
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DeeBee, I wouldn’t mind paying rent to a council, you’re contributing to a “common wealth” if you like, but paying off a buy to let mortgage for someone else gets my goat, we’ve basically been paying for them to see that level of increase in the values of their property that you are talking about.
We’ve been doing it for several years now because the student loans are calculated on one’s parents earnings and doesn’t take into account how many siblings you have. The short version is that you can either pick one child to get a tertiary education or you pay a fuck of a lot for their rents, as we have been doing for our three offspring.
As I say, I wouldn’t mind paying the university for accommodation, but that is all run privately now too.
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Bojo’s the arse wiper to Churchill’s arse wiper
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The short version is that you can either pick one child to get a tertiary education or you pay a fuck of a lot for their rents, as we have been doing for our three offspring.
I only have the one child and being from the Isle of Man, his uni accommodation wasn’t covered in the fees subsidy that the IOM government provided (which I’m eternally grateful for!) so I was stumping for landlords for five years too. The quality of the accommodation was variable, shall we say, but the prices went relentlessly up every year.
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an albeit small but pro-Russian demo in Eire…………………………good grief!
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THERE ARE NO CIRCUMSTANCES UNDER WHICH jOHNSON SHOULD NOT RESIGN.
He can f**k right off!
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but but but, Ukraine…
That’s what some of them are saying.
Despite the fact that Asquith was replaced during WW1, Chamberlain was replaced during WW2 and Thatcher was replaced during the Gulf War
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Johnson doing a fair impression of Chamberlain at the moment.
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…more like a fair impression of a lying, unpricipled shite.
Chamberlain was at least generally considered to be a morally good man
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Slade – that’s not an impression.
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If you like baroque music you might love this film about a living master:
https://www.arte.tv/fr/videos/104864-000-A/jordi-savall-musicien-pour-l-europe/
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Yeah, realise with hindsight that comment was incredibly harsh on Chamberlain.
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Deebee, was in UK over Xmas, but didn’t get to the Barley. Only pub I was in was the Coach and Horses in Whitstable, and the Smack as well, come to think of it.
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SBT, I’m not sure I’ll get down to Epsom on this trip – don’t really need to go there since we sold up anyway – but would like to have a pint there for old times’ sake.
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1,000
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