And now, the end is near….
That sounds good. I should put it in a song.
That can wait, though. The real reason you’re reading this gibberish is to find out what the results are going to be on Saturday.
First up, Wales against Italy. Wales have scored 5 tries to Italy’s 4. That makes you think it might be close! Until you realise that Wales have conceded 7 to Italy’s 24. Which is a bit of a problem for Italy. (Nae shit, Sherlock). Italy played better against Scotland than they had in the other games, so is this the time they can back it up with another good performance? Probably not.
Wales have struggled a bit this year. Thumped by Ireland, scraped past Scotland, somehow losing to England despite scoring all the tries and never really looking like they would beat France. So, can Italy pull off a huge shock and get past Wales in Wales?
Let’s ask Predict-A-Bear!
Answer: Nah. Might be closer than expected, but probably Wales by 15.
Next up is Ireland against Scotland. (Sob). This was going to be The Year! The year to end (Way too many to count) Years Of Hurt! A brilliant start! And then everything turned Scottish. A disappointing – to say the least – defeat in Wales, thumped by France, then showing what we can do against Italy, before deciding that things were far too easy and that we should turn Scottish again.
Never mind, it’s only Ireland. The team that has been reinvigorated under Farrell The Elder. The team that beat the All Blacks. The team that thumped Wales, gave France their closest game so far and who managed to be disappointed in only scoring 57 points against 15, 14, 13, 12 man Italy. They have scored 20 tries to our 10, conceded 3 to our 11, Sexton’s on his Neverending Farewell Tour and have the might of Ulster (cheering them on from the sidelines).
So. Any hope for Scotland? Well … Ireland’s scrum looked strangely out of sorts against England. They also seemed a bit too rushed at times. And Finn bloody owes us one! So of course, Toonie sticks him on the bench. But probably none.
But let’s find out from Predict-A-Bear!
Answer: Nah. Much as I would love to be wrong, Ireland will win this fairly comfortably, by about 15 (at least). Can’t see us even getting any sort of bonus point. (Sobs again.)
Finally, the main event! France against England! France at home and going for a Grand Slam against a (fairly) average England team. (I mean, come on, WE beat them!) Eddie’s playing mind games again, although the only people he seems to confuse with these are his players. They have looked fairly toothless in attack (7 tries scored – and they’ve played Italy!), wonder boy Smith hasn’t quite lived up to the hype (but he will), the midfield has a Manu-sized hole (but then it frequently does) and Jack Nowell will probably end up hooking in the front row. And please (don’t) let Joe Marler take more throw ins. On the good side, Maro’s been a right annoying bastard on the pitch.
But France! They have everything: they can play tight; they can be expansive as (cliché alert) only France can. They have the best player in the world, and a few others who would probably be in a world XV, strength in depth and Shaun Edwards as defence coach. They haven’t perhaps scored quite as many tries as their play would suggest and had to tough it out against Wales.
So who will win?
Predict-A-Bear to the rescue!
Answer: A France win and Grand Slam!
Predict-A-Bear whispered sweet nothings into BorderBoy‘s ear.
Onna telly this week
Friday 18th March
| Bulls v Scarlets | 17:10 | BBC2 Wales / Premier Sports 2 |
| Glasgow v Edinburgh | 19:35 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Newcastle v Leicester | 19:45 | BT Sport 2 |
Saturday 19th March
| Lions v Munster | 12:00 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 2 |
| Wales v Italy | 14:15 | BBC1 / iPlayer |
| Sharks v Zebre | 16:30 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Ireland v Scotland | 16:45 | ITV |
| France v England | 20:00 | ITV |
Sunday 20th March
| Stormers v Cardiff | 12:00 | S4C / Premier Sports 1 | ||
| Wales v Italy (U20s) | 14:00 | BBC1 Wales / iPlayer / Website | ||
| Ireland v Scotland (U20s) | 17:00 | BBC1 iPlayer / Website | ||
| France v England (U20s) | 20:00 | BBC1 iPlayer / Website |
Ovally Balls 
Bravo to Italy. Not a result I saw coming but splendid for them.
Back from a weekend in the north of Ireland, which meant missing the first two games yesterday but enjoyed France’s job on England. A couple of inaccuracies saved a heavy defeat for the English.
Watched Ireland Under 20s late this afternoon. A very well-coached team stacked with talented guys. Ulster’ll have a lot of competition in the next while.
On Friday we were in MickeyNumbersland. We had a long lunch in a pub next to where my grandfather and his brother sailed from and I got introduced to an ex-Irish international from the1980s, an absolute bull of a man still. Then we went within half a mile of the scene of many great Numbers’ tries and down the Ards peninsula – an astonishing number of caravan parks there – and across on the ferry to Strangford before staying in the village of Ardglass. A trip to Downpatrick and surrounds yesterday and then a coast run to Newcastle and Tollymore Forest Park today.
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Craigs – it’s incredibly disingenuous. They don’t mention that Keira Bell *lost* their court case (https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2021/09/17/puberty-blockers-keira-bell-nhs-court-appeal/). There is also the fact that puberty blockers have been used for decades, to treat (primarily) girls who enter puberty too early and there a lot of evidence that there are no long-term effects.
Tbh, it doesn’t surprise me, as it has apparently been written by Sonia Sohda, who is somewhat anti-trans (this may be an understatement – she has blocked me on twitter, for pointing out there is bigotry on Mumsnet).
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@thaum
That’s what gender blockers are for. They enable a child who issues with their assigned gender, to not go through puberty, so they can decide on what path they want to take.
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Properly borked my quoting there
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TomP – busy! The Ards Peninsula is the Norfolk of NI in jokes about family logs (rather than trees). It has an amazing micro-climate though.
Refit – Haven’t read the piece in question; the person I’m referring to was a 50+-year-old man transitioning to a woman. Thought he would start menstruating, FFS. Just a shocking lack of care.
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As an aside, I saw Sonia Sodha on some celebrity quiz show once, and she was as vacuous and uninformed as the day is long.
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thaum, grandfather’s family were sailing people from somewhere down there until my great-grandfather broke out of the loop by going to school in and then marrying a Belfast woman. They moved to Donagahadee and then to Bangor.
I had fine old time listening to some Northern Irish English again. It’s really lovely, full of great phrasings, and reminds me of the grandparents.
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TomP – it is lyrical and funny, and I miss it.
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Wales losing to Italy is enough to put up with without people having trans debates and being rude about Norfolk.
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I’ve got a soft spot for working-class Dubliners and their ability to swear in every single fucking sentence. Not enough of them round my genteel way but at least once a week I find a way to go for a walk to places where I’ll get to hear it.
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Looks like I will finally get to set foot in the north of Ireland in the summer as it seems my brother in law’s ashes are to be scattered in Donegal. I suspect there will be a trip to Omagh thrown in for good measure.
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Looks like Andy Bull read my ATL for his article in the Graun today. Except that JIFF started in 2010 and not 2016, he got his facts right. Call me flattered. Ha!
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And as I’m writing this, just heard that Galthié signed a 5 year contract with the FFR.
So France’s aiming at back to back RWC titles. I like the ambition. But let’s get one first.
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With what are pretty clearly the four best teams at the moment matched up to play each other in the quarter finals it’s brave for anyone to try to pick a World Cup winner.
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I agree with much of this. Although it is very frustrating that Jones doesn’t care about the Calcutta Cup or 6ns.
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There is a lot Wayne Pivac gets wrong and he correctly gets criticism, but he has been Wales Head Coach in every 6N from 2020, that’s 3, and they have won one. That’s as many as any other nation and he hasn’t had a chance at a World Cup yet. The sacking calls are…
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England are almost guaranteed a semi-final. Big test for Eddie is if he can prepare his side for two cataclysmic games at semi-final and final. The problem I see for him is the one CMW points out – it’s unclear who they’ll play in the semi-final.
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Yes it’s hard to see England losing their QF with Fiji.
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You think England’ll come second in the group? I had them playing Georgia.
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Might be better for them if they do as they should avoid Italy in the semi-finals that way.
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Who do our Scottish contingent think Townsend should focus on for the win in the group stage – South Africa or Ireland?
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Flair, I’m fairly sure I’ve never seen Craigs and Andy Bull in the same room at the same time. And parroting your wisdom may be the first sensible thing either has committed to paper. So to speak.
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Just looked at our RWC group. Can’t see us not qualifying from that one. If Eddie does deliver the world cup then this up and down will be worth it. I just don’t think he or the players have it in them.
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Has anyone seen Deebs and Stephen Jones in the same room as Inverdale?
Thought not.
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(A little secret, Craigs. Deebee’s real name is Mark Keohane. He’s definitely not Stephen Jones or John Inverdale.)
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Pivac never stood a chance.
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Too much weight to carry as it turned out.
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The world cup came up elsewhere.
When the pools were err, pulled, Japan were allocated the second seed slot. If the draw had been done at the same time as every other world cup Scotland would have that slot
So Pool A has France, New Zealand and Italy as the contenders for qualification (I’m assuming the fourth and fifth seed in each pool is not going to pull out three or four miracles in a row)
Pool B has South Africa, Ireland and Scotland
Pool C has Wales, Australia and Fiji
Pool D has England, Japan and Argentina
The qualifiers from B will play, lets be honest, France or New Zealand
The qualifiers from D will play Wales or Australia.
Scotland have South Africa first and Ireland last in the pools stage, it makes no difference who we target unless we can do two things – first sort out the discipling and not give away penalties
Penalties conceded this tournament
Scotland – 61
Wales – 56
England – 51
Ireland – 50
France – 47
Italy – 46
The second is that we need to get our pack carrying more effectively and not losing possession in contact. Schoeman does well, Cummings does well as does Mish. Fagerson the younger is starting to do better, but Ireland, France South Africa, they have big guys repeatedly knocking the players back in contact, getting good front foot ball.
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Something I just remembered, the squad numbers are bigger for this world cup and since it’s only a very short flight away, with a week between fixtures I expect Scotland to go full strength for both the big games and pretty close for the games v Asia Pacific 1 and Spain, there will be tweaks and “playing in to match fitness” in those games, but it’s not like we have much to lose
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Deebee’s real name is Mark Keohane.
At the risk of hyperbole (just) I’d rather be accused of being Reece-Mogg. That’s low, TomP! And did I really say I’d be supporting Wales? Can’t remember why. Pretty sure I was supporting Italy until the last round. Oh.
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This isn’t quite right. The date of the draw’s moved around a bit as has the date they take the rankings from to sort out the pots. But yeah not a kind draw for Scotland.
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Your challenge today is to pronounce that surname in a way acceptable on this island……
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Meant to ask, what does MSM stand for? People flinging it about in a not very friendly manner on the Graun.
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Trisk, I’m guessing Smith or Jones?
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The draw for next year’s World Cup was done on December 2020, December is the “traditional” time, a much as something that has happened so few times can be called traditional.
Scotland were ranked 7th at the time, but the rankings that were used were the ones immediately after the last World Cup, or at 1st of January 2020 – there weren’t any games between the pre-qualified teams after the RWC.
Prior to the 2017 World Cup the draw was postponed to May to allow teams to play more games and increase their rankings, as things stand the draw depended on rankings a full world cup cycle before the tournament is going to take place.
When the draw took place the ranking were
South Africa
England
New Zealand
France
Ireland
Australia
Scotland
Argentina
Argentina can effectively play as second seeds in their pool next year as they have England and Japan.
The pitfalls of making the draw four years before the tournament are obviously individual teams get the short straw, but also the whole draw is lopsided, we’ll have New Zealand and France playing QFs against Ireland and South Africa on one side (the current top four teams in the world), and Australia and Wales playing England or (probably) Argentina
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Deebee, they probably mean Mainstream Media
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I think Fiji will qualify over Wales – they’ve got history, don’t they? – or possibly Australia as neither teams seem very good now ( who knows in 18 months?) but England will still have an easy way to a SF.
So Eddie, for all his loud mouth may be right. But what style of play, and with which players? Besides Itoje, and possibly Genge, most of them are journeymen. Even the much hyped Smith didn’t show much.
One can blame the coach and the general organisation forever, as we did with France for 10 years, but the truth finally rests with the players. I just don’t see them.
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I think two out of Australia, England, Wales, Argentina, Fiji and Japan – they all have history don’t they? – will make the semi-finals. And if those two turn out to be Australia and England, by no means guaranteed as they both look dodgy, then it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if one of them makes the final as one of the lot on the other side could well use too much of themselves up getting that far and will be up against a confident team on a winning streak.
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It’ll be interesting to see where sides are this time next year. Over the last year to 18 months the ABs have looked their most beatable in years and have lost to Ireland, France and the Boks in that time (not sure about Aus? don’t think so), so don’t have that air of invincibility around them, but will still be there or thereabouts. The Boks will still have the bulk of the last WC squad so should be there or thereabouts, offering continuity, but only once has a side gone back to back with a core of the same players, so perhaps we’ll be on the down by France ’23? Still plenty of quality in the broader squad though and the lack of consistent rugby over the last couple of years may actually be a bonus when it comes to player longevity.
Australia aren’t a bad side (and beat us twice last year in Aus, winning more comfortably in the 2nd match than they did against France B/C), so shouldn’t be written off. That said, I don’t see much depth in their rugby and watching the Super Pacifika matches, I think the Aussie comp is probably the weakest around at the moment. But they have mongrel and street smarts that works against most sides, especially in tight situations, so wouldn’t write them off completely (for a last four spot). Argentina will need a minor miracle to be competitive at the latter stages next year. Since their breakthrough win against the All Blacks, they’ve gone backwards quite quickly.
Of the 6N sides, France and Ireland look by far the best equipped to go deep, possibly all the way, with Ireland perhaps sweating over depth at 10, and according to some, the front row – haven’t seen enough to judge that to be honest. But they do seem to have excellent depth elsewhere notably in the back row and outside backs. France, GS winners, purring along nicely, depth aplenty, at home, settled and confident. What could possibly go wrong?
England, at this stage, have no more than a puncher’s chance – they can raise their game on the day, but doubtful over a full WC, especially as injuries and fatigue start to set in. Wales in a similar position, but probably less stardust and more bloody-mindedness, which sees them grind their way to results, Scotland, as ever, short of real quality in too many positions, in depth, to really make a major impact (unless they catch the Boks cold first up and get a couple of bonus point wins against the smaller sides in our group. Not inconceivable, but unlikely, in my opinion). Italy in the same bracket as Argentina, despite their heroics this last weekend.
Fiji and Japan? Japan more likely to make it to the knockouts, but probably no further. It would be amazing to see the likes of a rampaging Fijian side and a slick, smart running Japanese side in the semis, but unless there are a couple of shocks earlier on, I think we’ll have the usual suspects jousting for honours.
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France move above the Kiwis into 2nd on the World Rankings, behind the Boks. Now we know the Boks only win the whole thing every 12 years just in time to spice up a Lions Tour, so France now have no excuse at all. They are front runners by a country mile.
https://www.world.rugby/tournaments/rankings/mru
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The demented poetry of Class Reception phonics books #1
A Goat on the Road
It is night.
It rains.
A goat is on the road.
The goat has a thin coat.
The goat weeps. The goat wails. The goat sighs.
The goat sees a light.
The goat might go right.
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The accompanying pictures were all photographs:
A road at night.
Rain in more or less half light.
A goat in broad daylight with the sun shining.
The goat in a coat.
A fucking miserable looking goat still in the daytime.
Two streetlights (it’s dark again now).
A road sign with an arrow pointing to the right and no sign whatsoever of the goat.
These things are all written around particular sets of digraphs and trigraphs etc. to the exclusion of all other considerations. They’ll all be ready for Georges Perec when they’re a bit older, maybe in Class 2.
I found it enjoyably disturbing. The Little One will be returning it today along with The Rich King which was disappointing in comparison and notable only for the line “The king has a fat chin”. Means I’ve got a couple more to look forward to later on.
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A lot going on there with the multiple “igh”s and the “oa”s. My guess is “igh” was the focus in a previous book and “oa” in this one. Disappointing the goat isn’t on a boat.
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I’ve also been playing with the Rugby World Cup historical predictor machine and have got Wales to the final:
2nd in group based on losing record against Australia (2-5) and winning record against Fiji (yes, really), Georgia and presumably Final Qualifier Winner.
QF with England (winning record 2-1)
SF with Ireland (winning record 2-1)
Final with France (1-1)
Anything could happen in extra time.
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Perec’s simpler, fewer letters.
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Obviously we bomb out if NZ or SA make it out of the Groups A & B set to. I tried to see what happened if Scotland came through, but the machine blew up as we’ve never played them.
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Well I I think that’s why it blew up…
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Based on those historical results, as long as we don’t go into the Fiji game with a former Llanelli Scarlets coach whose stated mission is to play a 15-player running game with lots of flash offloading and the like we should be ok.
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@TomP – Yes, very much so. Though to add a twist the physical books she gets to bring home are not the ones for the phonics programme they’re doing in school as those are all only available on the computer. We do the other ones sometimes, but The Little One prefers a book and some of the computer ones are really clunky to the extent it’s off-putting. This does mean that sometimes the digraphs etc are not the ones she’s just learned, but so be it.
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@TomP – We should be safe as there’s no way we’ll score more tries than Fiji the way we’re playing at the moment.
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