It’s Christmas in July as the Northern behemoths head south to upside-down-world and a feast of rugby! With this being the last July tour before the World Cup next year in France, there are markers to be put down, there are points to be made and there are matches to be won! Not the usual ‘development tours’ we see, but full-blooded Tests, with a capital T and an exclamation mark to boot. So who’ll be the turkeys (not Türkiye, as they’re not playing anyway), who’ll get a stuffing and who’ll provide the trimmings and the sauce? A veritable smorgasbord awaits:
Romania v Italy
After slaying the Welsh dragon in February, there’ll be a sprightly step in the Italian dressing room before facing off with a Romanian side that lost its last two matches (narrowly to let’s-replace-Italy-with-Georgia, and more convincingly to Spain) to end a decent five match winning streak prior to that. Solid second tier, but not enough to get past Italy, who broke a 36-match losing streak at the Principality with THAT try. It won’t be a canter, but Italy should start their summer series with a fairly comfortable win: Italy by 15 over Romania
Australia ‘A’ v Samoa
Much talk around the improvement of Australian sides in Super Rugby this year, but frankly I’m not sure where that came from. A couple of wins against Kiwi sides masked the fact that they only got one side in the semis and propped up the bottom of the combined table along with the Samoan and Fijian sides. The Brumbies were the only consistent side in Australia, but they’ll have too much depth anyway to field an ‘A’ side that will see off Samoa easily enough. No idea what to expect from Samoa, or who they’ve selected, but history tells us they’ll be blood and thunder for 60 minutes, whilst still getting the wrong end of the scoreboard and cards, and fade away as the superior conditioning and game plan of the Aussies takes control: Australia ‘A’ by 23
Fiji v Tonga
A spicy affair for sure, although Fiji have emerged as the most consistent of the Pacific Island sides in recent years, combining some electric running from all 15 (or 23) players at times, with brutal defence and a set piece that’s better than most of their neighbours. It’ll be fierce, it’ll be fast, it’ll be fun to watch from afar, but ultimately Fiji will have too much: Fiji by 13
Japan v France
Two of the world’s great cultures and two of the world’s great cuisines. Most recent and next hosts of rugby’s great showpiece. Two sides renowned for silky skills and derring-do with ball in hand, but that’s where it ends, I’m afraid. France are building up a fearsome head of steam in the lead up to their home World Cup and have oodles of talent and power in most positions, led by Dupont and Ntamack at 9 and 10, behind a pack that won’t step back for anyone. Japan have been solid recently, with good wins over second-tier sides and running the likes of Scotland, Australia and Ireland relatively close (bar one blowout against Ireland), so they have the wherewithal to mix it with the big boys. However, this is a France on a mission and they should stroll away with it in the end: France by 33
New Zealand v Ireland
One of the most eagerly awaited July series, with Ireland having got the measure of the Kiwis in recent years. But not in New Zealand. Both sides come into the series with question marks hanging over them – the All Black pack got dusted in Dublin and flayed in France last year and they’ve gone with Scott Barrett at 6 in an effort to bolster the lineout and scrum. Worked a treat in the 2019 Semi against England, didn’t it? Ireland’s Leinster-dominated side has struggled against top packs, but they’ll probably fancy they’ve got the wood on the Kiwis up front. The AB backline has suffered some Covid disruptions, but such is the depth of talent in New Zealand, they’ll be fine there. The noises coming out of New Zealand are ominous and they’ll throw everything at Ireland this week. Perhaps overly generous, but it’s New Zealand by 17
Australia v England
Another hugely anticipated match as Eddie’s eagles got their wings clipped in the 6N, amidst rumblings around his sometimes leftfield selections. Australia have been building quietly under Dave Rennie and demolished a Bok scrum last year thought to be their key weapon. The Aussies always bring that mongrel spirit to matches like this and they won’t back down against England’s forwards. It’s an intriguing match-up with England’s centres – as ever – a topic of debate and the backs in general, from 9 to 15, with the exception perhaps of Marcus Smith being anything but nailed on. Both sides are actually a little unsettled and it could go either way, with the match-up between Smith and Cooper at 10 a key contest. Australia will look to run England around the park, whilst England will look to smother the Aussies before letting loose later on. Could go either way, I’m backing Rennie’s Roos to break some hoodoos: Australia by 2
South Africa v Wales
Everyone in Wales apparently thinks the Boks will smash Wales. So does everyone here. Except for the people who think it’ll be a tight, ugly affair. Of which I’m one. The Boks are generally slow out of the starting blocks in the international season and are probably most vulnerable in this first Test. That said, it’s a pretty settled squad, with most of the players in their prime, or near enough. They’ve all played together for a few seasons and so should be settled enough. Wales, on the other hand, have come off a horror 6 Nations, only winning one match and losing to Italy in the final match – but they also got three losing bonus points, so three tight defeats. Whatever the missing links are in the Welsh side, it’s not guts and defence and bloody-mindedness. And the matches between Wales and South Africa have been tight in recent years, so I expect another tight affair, with the Boks perhaps easing away at altitude later on: South Africa by 9
Argentina v Scotland
This has all the potential to be a cracker, with Argentina now under the tutelage of Michael Cheika and with some of the Euro-based players back in the fold. Having stunned the ABs in 2020 and played some fabulous rugby in the process, they slipped back badly in 2021, winning only one match, against Italy. Scotland’s all-new, all-singing, all-dancing style fell a bit flat in the 6 Nations after a promising start and the Scots once again failed to live up to expectations. That said, they have some wonderful, athletic forwards and some serious gas out wide that can blitz most defences on its day. This could be a great match. Would back Argentina’s 2020 version, but not the 2021 version, albeit they’ve changed management and got a few players back: Scotland by 5
Merrily foretold by Deebee7
Onna telly this week
Thursday 30th June
| Scotland v Italy (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
| Wales v Georgia (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Saturday 2nd July
| Japan v France | 07:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| New Zealand v Ireland | 08:00 | Sky Sports Action |
| Australia v England | 10:55 | Sky Sports Action |
| South Africa v Wales | 16:05 | Sky Sports Action |
| Argentina v Scotland | 20:10 | Sky Sports Main Event |
Tuesday 5th July
| France v South Africa (U20s) | 16:00 | YouTube |
| England v Ireland (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Wednesday 6th July
| Scotland v Georgia (U20s) | 16:00 | YouTube |
| Wales v Italy (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Ovally Balls 
Craigs, – saw that Wiki entry, very funny!
In the aftermath of that defeat, the Boks have some very serious questions to answer, primarily around the loose forwards and half backs. PS du Toit is a long way off his best form and really shouldn’t be using the 4N to get match fit, ditto Duane Vermeulen, who seems to have been caught by old father time. Siya Kolisi is also struggling for his best form. Given the importance of forward primacy to the Bok gameplan, you really can’t afford to be second best in this area.
Faf is also struggling, long fingernails or not, and this has a knock on effect on Pollard (who hasn’t recreated his 2019 form either). Nienaber (and Erasmus, behind the scenes) seem wedded to the idea of taking the bulk of the 2019 squad to the 2023 World Cup regardless of form or fitness. If they do, a QF exit beckons, which I’m sure nobody here wants, loving the cuddle-Boks as you all do.
Strategically, they’re also a busted flush by leaving the best players on the bench as the ‘bomb squad’, even though the starting XV are not up to it: two matches in a row we’ve been pummeled in the opening half because we haven’t competed at the breakdown or set pieces effectively, leaving it to the replacements to play catch up. It almost worked against New Zealand, but the Aussies showed – emphatically – that its the wrong approach. Leaving your prime loosehead and hooker (and poacher and carrier) on the bench until your 15 or 20 points down is simply stupid. When Bongi was fit and on top of his game, you arguably could, but when he’s not and Dweba doesn’t look like making the step up, you can’t. Ditto Kwagga Smith, for the energy he brings to the breakdown, link play and defence – far better than any of the incumbent back row.
Finally, if all you have up front is parity, the one-trick pony of hoisting it skyward is useless and clever defensive coaches have worked that out too. We get such great ball off our scrums and yet never look to launch attacks out wide from them, preferring to scrum for penalties, kick to touch, gather the lineout and hope the opposition can’t stop the maul, which this season most have managed to do more often than not.
It’s time for a major reorganisation of the coaching and playing staff, even if it’s common cause that you don’t tinker a year out from a World Cup. What’s the point of going to one if you realistically won’t get past the QF (or dog forbid out of the pool) with the players, coaches and tactics you’re employing?
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Tbh, is anyone surprised that an Aussie scrum half is a dick
No.
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why Aussie?
nearly all #9s are so, or should be…………………..
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Jean Pierre Rives broke the mould
For those of us of that vintage – Rives was an idol/icon ….
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…..great hair
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@Craigs – “Cmw – it’s the dishing out of status that annoys me the most though. It seems random and more arbitrary than having a cathedral.”
You seem to be using poor examples then as it sounds like Gibraltar had the status all along and St Davids had had it for hundreds of years (presumably due to the cathedral) before losing it between 1886 and 1994 when it got it back.
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Seems to me cathedral issue a minor worry compared to a full scale cloning of Jean-Pierre Rives scandal. Are clones eligible to play for country of dna donor as well as country of birth/residence?
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@SBT – I’m not convinced ‘Fraser McReight’ is a real person at all, sounds made up to me.
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anagram of:
rearm fighters (c)…………………………sinister, or what?
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why Aussie?
nearly all #9s are so, or should be…………………..
Sorry, I should’ve taken 9s out of the quote. And I almost took offence – instantly and angrily – until I saw the ‘nearly’ qualification. You’re on probation. #Leagueof9s
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“What’s the point of going to one if you realistically won’t get past the QF (or dog forbid out of the pool) with the players, coaches and tactics you’re employing?”
Nope, you’re right. Might as well stay home, then we can get Kenya, Portugal or some other 3rd tier Nation that people might actually like to watch involved. Win win for everyone.
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New SA winger for this weekend
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Looks defensively very sound, which he’ll be required to do a lot of. Not much evidence of kick-chase prowess, which he’ll be required to do a lot of. Excellent finisher out wide, which he’ll not be adding to his highlights reel this week.
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SBT, we have enough talent and depth to push for the big pot, but not with the way we’re currently set up. It’s infuriating. And I’d back Kenya obviously.
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Bok side for Saturday, with 8 replacements from the one from last week:
15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Lodewyk de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Retshegofaditswe Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Albertus Smith, 20 Duane Vermeulen, 21 Jacobus Reinach, 22 Francois Steyn, 23 Warrick Gelant.
So, a completely reworked back division, with Am and Pollard both injured. It sees Damian Willemse shift from 15 to 10, Willie le Roux back starting at 15 and Jesse Kriel in at 13 in place of Am. In addition, Faf de Klerk is out of the 23 completely, probably inconsolable after his vicious assault on Dick the Tache, and Warrick Gelant benched, In come Jayden Hendrikse, who has looked better than Faf, with Cobus Reinach onto the bench and a debut for young Canan Moodie on the right wing (5th one so far this season?).
In the forwards, PS du Toit is injured and replaced by Franco Mostert at 7, with Jasper Wiese at 8 and Vermeulen benched. 2nd row stays the same, but front row sees Malcolm Marx and Steven Kitshoff start, with Ox Nche benched and Joseph Dweba out altogether, replaced by 1-cap 35 year old Deon Fourie who last played hooker seven years ago!
Positives? Willie is enjoying something of either an Indian summer or a late revival depending on how you view him, and will bring both tactical nous and an attacking threat to the 15 jersey (not that Willemse was bad there at all), whilst Willemse moving to 10 could see a much more attacking style from the Boks, given his natural footballing brain and style – he’s come on in leaps and bounds in the last year or two. Canan Moodie on the wing looks to have a massive future, so let’s see how he deals with the flying Venus de Milo dressed in yellow.
Negatives in the backs? Lots of changes, so little continuity, especially if they do decide to give it a fling. De Allende at 12 isn’t very creative so it may be a moot point who is inside or outside of him. Jesse Kriel at 13 gives me the shivers, he’s not a natural there and Am’s loss is massive. Expect the Aussies to target our midfield.
Positives in the pack? Kitshoff, Marx and Wiese starting, continuity in the second row and in Mostert at 7 yet another option to disrupt the Aus lineout.
Negatives? Mostert starting at 7 doesn’t add much other than at the lineout, if Marx is injured early we’ll have a 35 year-old bloke who moved from hooker to flank because his darts were so poor, back at hooker based on 3 weeks of training. What could possibly go wrong? He is a great poacher though and more than handy with ball in hand.
Aus by 8. Again.
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@cmw
Check out our Second XI captain who has gone viral. I wasn’t there but apparently you could hear the snick a mile away. Nice touch pretending to brush the dirt off his pads though. Having said that this was against Ilford so there is some background to this….
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the flying Venus de Milo
:-D
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@deebee
didn’t see the Oz vs SA match at weekend (caught the Poo-mas vs ABs on catchup) – but from what I heard seemed like half the Boks issues would be solved by “take your 3”.
BTW what’s the story with Evan Roos – seems out of contention here but in URC looked a class act at 8
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Cmw – there should be a formula for it. Some kind of calculation taking into account population of the country and population density.
Yes, that’s sort of arbitrary, but at least it’s consistent and actually means it’s restricted to large, dense urban areas.
Which is what I want. And doing what I want isn’t arbitrary.
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And then we can colour in some maps in a meaningful way.
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Trisk, yeah, apparently Pollard missed a couple of relative sitters, which would have given us a bit more momentum and possibly belief, but he didn’t.
Everybody in SA is puzzled by the Evan Roos thing – he was grudgingly selected for the 2nd Wales Test in what amounted to an experimental Bok side and not since. Frankly, how both Roos and Elrigh Louw aren’t in the squad and 23 on a regular basis is hugely puzzling.
It looks like our coaches are doing the ‘Woodward Lions’ special of fanatical belief in a once great side that is now on the slide. Needs fresh faces and ideas.
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@Craigs – “Yes, that’s sort of arbitrary, but at least it’s consistent and actually means it’s restricted to large, dense urban areas. Which is what I want.”
You’re just against seals and puffins and what have you being allowed to live in cities which is something that marks you out as a wrong ‘un.
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You’re just against seals
Do I look like a Kiwi hooker to you?
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Australia unchanged from last week in the starting 15, with just a tweak or two on the bench. The Boks have 8 changes in personnel or positions from last week and one more on the bench. Depth! Unfortunately, in this context, we’re plumbing it.
15 Reece Hodge, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Jed Holloway; 5 Matt Philip, 4 Rory Arnold; 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper (c)
Substitutes: 16 David Porecki, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Darcy Swain, 20 Rob Leota, 21 Pete Samu, 22 Jake Gordon, 23 Andrew Kellaway
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@Craigs – “Do I look like a Kiwi hooker to you?”
Given your attitude to the citizens of Ramsey Island and it’s surrounds I can’t imagine that New Zealand’s urban kiwi population is safe from you either.
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CMW – you are starting to make me feel vaguely important.
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looks like our coaches are doing the ‘Woodward Lions’ special of fanatical belief
There’s something of a feeling like that here too. Win in NZ was great – coming back to win 2-1 after the disaster of the 1st test was great but Argentina winning last weekend puts it in context – this isn’t a good NZ team (whether it’s selection or coaching or both that’s the issue)
The problems in the tight we saw vs France and England in the 6N haven’t gone away. Scrum got penalised in 1st test – but got away with it thereafter but 1st test was only one where NZ had Barrett, Whitelock, Retallick on the field for the bulk of the game. Also the disintegration after Sexton went off in the 1st test wasn’t good.
I am being hyper-critical but we got scalded in RWC 2015, and 2019. 2015 was especially concerning because loss of starters (Payne, O’Mahony, Sexton, O’Connell, O’Brien) had us completely unbalanced.
It wouldn’t take much for the loss of a few key men to have us back in 2015 again – Keenan (no obvious full back), Sexton (still – even though Carbery looked more comfortable in green than playing with Munster), Furlong (Bealham is a long way off), Porter (our 2 props played 65-70 mins of each test in NZ which indicates how much faith there is in the bench)
Signs are that we’re looking for an AI clean sweep, so will go in locked and loaded vs SA and Oz. I’ve have thought this was the time for the lads who played vs MAB to get a go (some of them anyway).
But signs are they’re being sent to SA in October with some U20s to play Currie Cup teams as “Emerging Ireland”, so probably won’t make the AI squad for Nov.
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So Trisk, is all Ireland agog, waiting for Michael Flatley’s rakishly-hatted ego trip, sorry, film? Sounds amazing, for all the wrong reasons…
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/aug/31/blackbird-review-michael-flatleys-fabulously-bad-spy-tale-is-a-classic-of-egosploitation-cinema
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Trisk – well I didn’t want to say anything…
Actually, my main concern for you guys (ok, not concern) is that when Sexface gets injured or Father Time catches up with him 2 weeks into 2023 there isn’t a replacement. He’s far too central to this Ireland team. You guys are very strong right now, playing great rugby (the win in NZ was awesome) but also inevitably/potentially brittle. I hope I’m not wrong tbh.
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Michael Flatley’s rakishly-hatted ego trip
@BB
I think that Guardian link was first mention of it I’ve seen….
Flatley is well regarded in Ireland due to the connection with Riverdance (and the follow ups) and how it brought a different aspect of Ireland / Irish culture to the world
BUT the over-the-top lifestyle and faux Irishness he tends to be associated with is generally regarded with sigh. The Quiet Man style thing was ok in 1950s Hollywood – doesn’t really run now.
Having read the review – seems to be in David Lynch “Dune” category – so bad, you can’t stop watching it.
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@craigs
You have it in one – Sexton gets a serious injury or form nose dives and we’re up the creek without a paddle.
I think the “form nose dives” one isn’t seriously considered enough – with sportspeople I tend to adhere to “catastrophe theory” – you don’t get a gradual decline but a sudden drop in capability.
Sexton missed the Lions tour – so got a decent rest. We really need to manage his minutes now – not roll him out to play every Ireland game from here to RWC 23 even though – as you say – everything goes through him.
Prop is the other weak point (as I’ve mentioned). Hooker is ok with Sheehan, Kelliher, Herring (even Scannell looked good vs MAB – which raises loads of questions about how Munster used him)
Bonus would be to find a way to get likes of Hume, Baloucoune, Coombes in the squad / 23 (Baloucoune seems to get injured the week before every Ireland squad is announced). Coombes (I’m Munster biased) is the type of heavy carrier we could use and in addition has decent hands
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You’d better all sit down. There will be a new post shortly.
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Et voilà!
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