It’s Christmas in July as the Northern behemoths head south to upside-down-world and a feast of rugby! With this being the last July tour before the World Cup next year in France, there are markers to be put down, there are points to be made and there are matches to be won! Not the usual ‘development tours’ we see, but full-blooded Tests, with a capital T and an exclamation mark to boot. So who’ll be the turkeys (not Türkiye, as they’re not playing anyway), who’ll get a stuffing and who’ll provide the trimmings and the sauce? A veritable smorgasbord awaits:
Romania v Italy
After slaying the Welsh dragon in February, there’ll be a sprightly step in the Italian dressing room before facing off with a Romanian side that lost its last two matches (narrowly to let’s-replace-Italy-with-Georgia, and more convincingly to Spain) to end a decent five match winning streak prior to that. Solid second tier, but not enough to get past Italy, who broke a 36-match losing streak at the Principality with THAT try. It won’t be a canter, but Italy should start their summer series with a fairly comfortable win: Italy by 15 over Romania
Australia ‘A’ v Samoa
Much talk around the improvement of Australian sides in Super Rugby this year, but frankly I’m not sure where that came from. A couple of wins against Kiwi sides masked the fact that they only got one side in the semis and propped up the bottom of the combined table along with the Samoan and Fijian sides. The Brumbies were the only consistent side in Australia, but they’ll have too much depth anyway to field an ‘A’ side that will see off Samoa easily enough. No idea what to expect from Samoa, or who they’ve selected, but history tells us they’ll be blood and thunder for 60 minutes, whilst still getting the wrong end of the scoreboard and cards, and fade away as the superior conditioning and game plan of the Aussies takes control: Australia ‘A’ by 23
Fiji v Tonga
A spicy affair for sure, although Fiji have emerged as the most consistent of the Pacific Island sides in recent years, combining some electric running from all 15 (or 23) players at times, with brutal defence and a set piece that’s better than most of their neighbours. It’ll be fierce, it’ll be fast, it’ll be fun to watch from afar, but ultimately Fiji will have too much: Fiji by 13
Japan v France
Two of the world’s great cultures and two of the world’s great cuisines. Most recent and next hosts of rugby’s great showpiece. Two sides renowned for silky skills and derring-do with ball in hand, but that’s where it ends, I’m afraid. France are building up a fearsome head of steam in the lead up to their home World Cup and have oodles of talent and power in most positions, led by Dupont and Ntamack at 9 and 10, behind a pack that won’t step back for anyone. Japan have been solid recently, with good wins over second-tier sides and running the likes of Scotland, Australia and Ireland relatively close (bar one blowout against Ireland), so they have the wherewithal to mix it with the big boys. However, this is a France on a mission and they should stroll away with it in the end: France by 33
New Zealand v Ireland
One of the most eagerly awaited July series, with Ireland having got the measure of the Kiwis in recent years. But not in New Zealand. Both sides come into the series with question marks hanging over them – the All Black pack got dusted in Dublin and flayed in France last year and they’ve gone with Scott Barrett at 6 in an effort to bolster the lineout and scrum. Worked a treat in the 2019 Semi against England, didn’t it? Ireland’s Leinster-dominated side has struggled against top packs, but they’ll probably fancy they’ve got the wood on the Kiwis up front. The AB backline has suffered some Covid disruptions, but such is the depth of talent in New Zealand, they’ll be fine there. The noises coming out of New Zealand are ominous and they’ll throw everything at Ireland this week. Perhaps overly generous, but it’s New Zealand by 17
Australia v England
Another hugely anticipated match as Eddie’s eagles got their wings clipped in the 6N, amidst rumblings around his sometimes leftfield selections. Australia have been building quietly under Dave Rennie and demolished a Bok scrum last year thought to be their key weapon. The Aussies always bring that mongrel spirit to matches like this and they won’t back down against England’s forwards. It’s an intriguing match-up with England’s centres – as ever – a topic of debate and the backs in general, from 9 to 15, with the exception perhaps of Marcus Smith being anything but nailed on. Both sides are actually a little unsettled and it could go either way, with the match-up between Smith and Cooper at 10 a key contest. Australia will look to run England around the park, whilst England will look to smother the Aussies before letting loose later on. Could go either way, I’m backing Rennie’s Roos to break some hoodoos: Australia by 2
South Africa v Wales
Everyone in Wales apparently thinks the Boks will smash Wales. So does everyone here. Except for the people who think it’ll be a tight, ugly affair. Of which I’m one. The Boks are generally slow out of the starting blocks in the international season and are probably most vulnerable in this first Test. That said, it’s a pretty settled squad, with most of the players in their prime, or near enough. They’ve all played together for a few seasons and so should be settled enough. Wales, on the other hand, have come off a horror 6 Nations, only winning one match and losing to Italy in the final match – but they also got three losing bonus points, so three tight defeats. Whatever the missing links are in the Welsh side, it’s not guts and defence and bloody-mindedness. And the matches between Wales and South Africa have been tight in recent years, so I expect another tight affair, with the Boks perhaps easing away at altitude later on: South Africa by 9
Argentina v Scotland
This has all the potential to be a cracker, with Argentina now under the tutelage of Michael Cheika and with some of the Euro-based players back in the fold. Having stunned the ABs in 2020 and played some fabulous rugby in the process, they slipped back badly in 2021, winning only one match, against Italy. Scotland’s all-new, all-singing, all-dancing style fell a bit flat in the 6 Nations after a promising start and the Scots once again failed to live up to expectations. That said, they have some wonderful, athletic forwards and some serious gas out wide that can blitz most defences on its day. This could be a great match. Would back Argentina’s 2020 version, but not the 2021 version, albeit they’ve changed management and got a few players back: Scotland by 5
Merrily foretold by Deebee7
Onna telly this week
Thursday 30th June
| Scotland v Italy (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
| Wales v Georgia (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Saturday 2nd July
| Japan v France | 07:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| New Zealand v Ireland | 08:00 | Sky Sports Action |
| Australia v England | 10:55 | Sky Sports Action |
| South Africa v Wales | 16:05 | Sky Sports Action |
| Argentina v Scotland | 20:10 | Sky Sports Main Event |
Tuesday 5th July
| France v South Africa (U20s) | 16:00 | YouTube |
| England v Ireland (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Wednesday 6th July
| Scotland v Georgia (U20s) | 16:00 | YouTube |
| Wales v Italy (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Ovally Balls 
Andrew Porter’s been cited for his tackle on Retallick.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/62213644
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Rain in Cornwall.
There is hope for us yet.
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“Ticht – the difference between boxing and rugby is that the whole point of boxing is to try to knock your opponent out. But yes, WR needs to do more.”
Thaum. like every sport, boxing has changed due to “advances” in strength & conditioning, the short version is that boxers now get up off the floor, or don’t even go down, from punches that would previously sparked them out and ended the fight, and it’s not just once, it’s several times.
It was Eubank Jnr v Blackwell that was the final straw for me, the ref refused to stop the fight and Chris Eubank snr (in his role of trainer to his son) told Jnr to stop hitting Blackwell in the head – he didn’t want his son to live with what he did after the Michael Watson fight.
In fact I’ll quote wiki on it,
The fight was shown live on Channel 5.[44] Eubank dominated the fight to the point that his trainer, father Chris Eubank Sr., began imploring the referee to stop the fight. Following the eighth round, the elder Eubank instructed Eubank to stop hitting Blackwell in the head.[45] The referee finally called a stop to the fight at 2:21 in the 10th round, and awarded Eubank the win, and the title, by TKO.[46][47] Blackwell was taken to hospital with bleeding on the brain, and was placed in a medically induced coma for treatment.[48] The fight averaged 1.5 million viewers on Channel 5.[49]
In rugby I don’t believe the authorities are taking brain injuries seriously enough, we get the same old crap from them then after a month or two referees are told to mitigate cards down to yellow from red or yellow to penalty only because fans don’t want to see a game ruined by cards and mismatches. This does nothing, fuck all, to change behaviour and it really makes me angry when I read halfwits talking about it not being tiddlywinks or the spectacle being spoiled, as if their hour and a half over five pints is more important than bleeding brains.
If they had clamped down hard two years ago when they started this there would be a change in behaviour by now, we’ve seen it a lot in terms of challenging for a high ball and that was brought about by some seemingly “harsh” cards at the time.
No one is going to tell me that they are taking it seriously when they call for a 14 day stand down after a head injury and then almost immediately Sexton is playing the following week after being taken off because of a dunt to the head.
In ten years time when Sexton is in the same boat as Jones (and dog knows I hope I’m wrong about this) there will be a lot of thoughts and prayers and we’ll go on as we are.
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Not to point any fingers, but if Covid is a worry, why go on a plane via a crowded airport?
Also, aren’t these new cases even milder variants than omicron?
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Craigs – I wouldn’t. (Went to Ireland on the ferry, wore mask when moving around, spent a lot of time outside.)
BA.4 and BA.5 seem to be sending more people to hospital, and there’s another one of concern whose name I can’t remember.
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Thaum – fair enough. I’m flying out in late August so hoping that this really is the new normal. Also, I’m pretty sure I had something the week before last but we’ve run out of testing kits at home. I just stayed in.
I can’t find any stats mind.
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Tested negative before we left. In we’d gone through the original gate for out flight, it would have been fine – plenty space. Plane was delayed, we were moved to a new gate, in a smaller area, with other flights leaving at around the same time (and very few wearing masks, although that isn’t mandatory in the airport). We had our masks on during the flight (both ways), and were among the very few to do so, despite continual announcements on the plane.
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BB – did anyone look infested?
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Craigs – here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I note that cases & deaths have not been updated in over 10 days, but you can see hospital admissions rising fast as of a week ago.
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I think, whilst wearing a mask is ‘preferred’, at the moment everything is ‘at your own risk’. Which is the same as every other risk and what I was getting at. Wear a mask or not wear a mask, we have to move on.
That said, if the hospitals are getting pressured then the government should probably invest some money or something. Or shoot them from a fighter jet.
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Thaum – I saw that but haven’t seen anything in the last week which is weird. Hopefully this is indicating a peak though.
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The mask is mostly to protect other people, especially if you’re not wearing FFP2 or FFP3. So no, it shouldn’t be optional.
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It’s raining in Somerset now.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1658190600&zoom=9&lon=-3.36&lat=50.87
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Thaum – until when though?
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@OT
Drizzle here – about 17 Celsius. Yesterday was prob just over 30.
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@trisk
It’s not fair. I’m sitting in a pool of my own greasy sweat.
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Not to point any fingers, but if Covid is a worry, why go on a plane via a crowded airport?
Craigs, I’ve no idea what the context is of the airport reference, but that’s never stopped me before, so I’m going to slag you off. I think that’s fair warning. Planes, eh? What about the poor saps who have to use public transport in 43 degree heat in London to earn a crust that isn’t worth jack in the current inflationary environment? Not popping off to Ibiza on holiday, just a daily grind. Slagging off finished (for now).
When I was in the UK a few weeks back I was actually taken aback at how few people on the tube were wearing masks at all. And you got some strange looks if you were wearing one. Personal responsibility (which was actually your point, but I’m flatly ignoring it because then I couldn’t slag you off) seems to be quite far down the list of priorities these days.
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Trisk – you utter bastard. It’s 38 and full blank and pitiless sun here.
Craigs – until it’s over. And I also think that anyone ever who has cold-type symptoms should mask up if they have to go out, and preferably stay at home (as I understand is the norm in East Asia).
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Deebs – BB specifically mentioned going onna plane and mentioned covid as a worry. My point is that that needs to be factored in if you are already worried. I.e. if you are worried, avoid planes.
The London transport thing is not always a choice, but there still needs to be some kind of individual risk assessment. I’m not so worried as I’m relatively young (certainly outside the risky cohort) and I’ve had all the jabs and had covid so I should be fine (touches head).
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Thaum – I don’t think it will ever be over tbh. I agree that if you are ill you shouldn’t go out but that applies to all illnesses. As son as something becomes optional most people won’t do it imo.
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Yep, I meant all illnesses. Have always been really fucked off by colleagues who came in to work when sick.
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@Thaum – I laugh at your paltry 38 degrees
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What’s the uncertainty in that measurement? With the sensor being on the car I’d hazard a guess at 2-3 degrees.
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BB mentioned the fact that lots of people were herded into a small area (when it wasn’t really necessary). It was more a comment on the uselessness of Glasgow Airport.
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“Thaum – I don’t think it will ever be over tbh”
From what I can gather Covid 19 will be in circulation for a very long time to come due to variants. The hope is, and it is only a hope at this time, is that the variants will become no more deadly than seasonal ‘flu and that there will be annual vaccinations available for the older and more vulnerable cohorts, just as there is with ‘flu.
We’re still flying blind here to a certain degree, but as we go forward we have to roll out vaccines to low-income countries quicker than is being done currently, if Governments in the West won’t do it for philanthropic reasons then their selfishness has to be appealed to because as long as it’s circulating somewhere, there is a risk of it coming through everyone’s front door.
I’m not a gloom meister, but we should be wary and very much prepared to go back into lockdowns if and when necessary, with all of the preparedness that comes with planning for this eventuality. IIRC, the MERS outbreak had a much higher mortality rate than Covid 19. The more lethal diseases tend to die out quicker, just down to not having carriers for too long because, simply put, they are not alive long enough to infect many people, I think that is what happens with Ebola, but the worst case is something that is as lethal as that and has the facility to spread like Covid.
We should be planning for the next pandemic now.
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“What’s the uncertainty in that measurement? With the sensor being on the car I’d hazard a guess at 2-3 degrees.”
So it could be 43 degrees in the sun.
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BB said he doesn’t care about COVID or vulnerable people and he’ll do what the fuck he wants.
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This from the Beeb
New record of 40.3C in Lincolnshire
The UK’s record temperature has been broken again after the mercury reached 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire, according to the Met Office.
The provisional figure, as of 16:00 today, surpasses the earlier peak of 40.2C recorded at Heathrow.
Temperatures are still at that same high this afternoon at the London airport, as well as in St James’s Park in the capital.
Kew Gardens was 40.1C as of 16:00, with Northolt at 40C and Cambridge at 39.9C.
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Just for fun I had a look at my car temp gauge, 36 degrees, up from 34.5 yesterday. That’s in the sun.
Burnt my fecking fingers on the door latch, well, not burnt, but very surprised at the temperature of it.
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@ticht
OT, sure, but wouldn’t the fact that the temperatures quoted in that BBC release as being “provisional” mean that they are subject to verification and/or calibration using some sophisticated instrumentation?
I think the main take away point is that these figures are reading a full two degrees higher than the previous record high temperature in the UK and it’s only going to go in one direction if the status quo is not challenged.
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It’s well worth reading this post on the Politics Live blog about the Forde report.
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@ticht
The way we collect data means it is impossible to compare even measurements from the same locations at different points in time. For example the urban heat island effect makes the temperatures at Heathrow higher than they should be. And the constant increase in building around Heathrow means that effect has gradually increased over the years, which means you need to correct for it, which they don’t do. It’s impossible to compare results from different years.
So I treat all the numbers with a pinch of salt as the uncertainties are too huge. There are many other problems too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44980493
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OT, yes, that is why trends are the thing to look at, and the trend is that we’ve seen a global increase in mean temperatures of around a quarter of a degree over ten years, and of the hottest ten days since records began, one was around 1910, two in the 1990s and seven since 2000.
Also
“Since 1970 the global average temperature has been rising at a rate of 1.7°C per century, compared to a long-term decline over the past 7,000 years at a baseline rate of 0.01°C per century (NOAA, 2016; Marcott et al., 2013).”
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Some blessèd wet stuff!
(Yeah, I know he’s an arse.)
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I can’t wait to be able to say these words (still dry and hot as fuck here)
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Refit – we are promised some of this tomorrow, and it’s feeling like it’s coming.
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Mind you, that has possibly the worst ever lyrics of a Doors song. Never mind, it has good storm effects.
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We need some right now
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That does at least explain the smell of smoke at work today.
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Is this better?
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Refit – I thought only London was on fire. That’s what the media would have you believe, anyway. Wonder why that is?
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There’s always Rainy Day Women no. 12 & 35….
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Or there’s the song predicated on a false premise:
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Slightly, nicer this evening – no warmer but clearer skies and a bit of watery sunshine.
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Trisk. Really. We are suffering here.
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At least give us a weather-related choon.
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Slightly tenuous, but includes cold and wet and weary:
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There’s also the awful song that proposes that rai-ai-ain on your wedding day is (unironically) ironic, but it’s so shit that I refuse to post a link. And you all know that’s a low bar.
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