It’s Christmas in July as the Northern behemoths head south to upside-down-world and a feast of rugby! With this being the last July tour before the World Cup next year in France, there are markers to be put down, there are points to be made and there are matches to be won! Not the usual ‘development tours’ we see, but full-blooded Tests, with a capital T and an exclamation mark to boot. So who’ll be the turkeys (not Türkiye, as they’re not playing anyway), who’ll get a stuffing and who’ll provide the trimmings and the sauce? A veritable smorgasbord awaits:
Romania v Italy
After slaying the Welsh dragon in February, there’ll be a sprightly step in the Italian dressing room before facing off with a Romanian side that lost its last two matches (narrowly to let’s-replace-Italy-with-Georgia, and more convincingly to Spain) to end a decent five match winning streak prior to that. Solid second tier, but not enough to get past Italy, who broke a 36-match losing streak at the Principality with THAT try. It won’t be a canter, but Italy should start their summer series with a fairly comfortable win: Italy by 15 over Romania
Australia ‘A’ v Samoa
Much talk around the improvement of Australian sides in Super Rugby this year, but frankly I’m not sure where that came from. A couple of wins against Kiwi sides masked the fact that they only got one side in the semis and propped up the bottom of the combined table along with the Samoan and Fijian sides. The Brumbies were the only consistent side in Australia, but they’ll have too much depth anyway to field an ‘A’ side that will see off Samoa easily enough. No idea what to expect from Samoa, or who they’ve selected, but history tells us they’ll be blood and thunder for 60 minutes, whilst still getting the wrong end of the scoreboard and cards, and fade away as the superior conditioning and game plan of the Aussies takes control: Australia ‘A’ by 23
Fiji v Tonga
A spicy affair for sure, although Fiji have emerged as the most consistent of the Pacific Island sides in recent years, combining some electric running from all 15 (or 23) players at times, with brutal defence and a set piece that’s better than most of their neighbours. It’ll be fierce, it’ll be fast, it’ll be fun to watch from afar, but ultimately Fiji will have too much: Fiji by 13
Japan v France
Two of the world’s great cultures and two of the world’s great cuisines. Most recent and next hosts of rugby’s great showpiece. Two sides renowned for silky skills and derring-do with ball in hand, but that’s where it ends, I’m afraid. France are building up a fearsome head of steam in the lead up to their home World Cup and have oodles of talent and power in most positions, led by Dupont and Ntamack at 9 and 10, behind a pack that won’t step back for anyone. Japan have been solid recently, with good wins over second-tier sides and running the likes of Scotland, Australia and Ireland relatively close (bar one blowout against Ireland), so they have the wherewithal to mix it with the big boys. However, this is a France on a mission and they should stroll away with it in the end: France by 33
New Zealand v Ireland
One of the most eagerly awaited July series, with Ireland having got the measure of the Kiwis in recent years. But not in New Zealand. Both sides come into the series with question marks hanging over them – the All Black pack got dusted in Dublin and flayed in France last year and they’ve gone with Scott Barrett at 6 in an effort to bolster the lineout and scrum. Worked a treat in the 2019 Semi against England, didn’t it? Ireland’s Leinster-dominated side has struggled against top packs, but they’ll probably fancy they’ve got the wood on the Kiwis up front. The AB backline has suffered some Covid disruptions, but such is the depth of talent in New Zealand, they’ll be fine there. The noises coming out of New Zealand are ominous and they’ll throw everything at Ireland this week. Perhaps overly generous, but it’s New Zealand by 17
Australia v England
Another hugely anticipated match as Eddie’s eagles got their wings clipped in the 6N, amidst rumblings around his sometimes leftfield selections. Australia have been building quietly under Dave Rennie and demolished a Bok scrum last year thought to be their key weapon. The Aussies always bring that mongrel spirit to matches like this and they won’t back down against England’s forwards. It’s an intriguing match-up with England’s centres – as ever – a topic of debate and the backs in general, from 9 to 15, with the exception perhaps of Marcus Smith being anything but nailed on. Both sides are actually a little unsettled and it could go either way, with the match-up between Smith and Cooper at 10 a key contest. Australia will look to run England around the park, whilst England will look to smother the Aussies before letting loose later on. Could go either way, I’m backing Rennie’s Roos to break some hoodoos: Australia by 2
South Africa v Wales
Everyone in Wales apparently thinks the Boks will smash Wales. So does everyone here. Except for the people who think it’ll be a tight, ugly affair. Of which I’m one. The Boks are generally slow out of the starting blocks in the international season and are probably most vulnerable in this first Test. That said, it’s a pretty settled squad, with most of the players in their prime, or near enough. They’ve all played together for a few seasons and so should be settled enough. Wales, on the other hand, have come off a horror 6 Nations, only winning one match and losing to Italy in the final match – but they also got three losing bonus points, so three tight defeats. Whatever the missing links are in the Welsh side, it’s not guts and defence and bloody-mindedness. And the matches between Wales and South Africa have been tight in recent years, so I expect another tight affair, with the Boks perhaps easing away at altitude later on: South Africa by 9
Argentina v Scotland
This has all the potential to be a cracker, with Argentina now under the tutelage of Michael Cheika and with some of the Euro-based players back in the fold. Having stunned the ABs in 2020 and played some fabulous rugby in the process, they slipped back badly in 2021, winning only one match, against Italy. Scotland’s all-new, all-singing, all-dancing style fell a bit flat in the 6 Nations after a promising start and the Scots once again failed to live up to expectations. That said, they have some wonderful, athletic forwards and some serious gas out wide that can blitz most defences on its day. This could be a great match. Would back Argentina’s 2020 version, but not the 2021 version, albeit they’ve changed management and got a few players back: Scotland by 5
Merrily foretold by Deebee7
Onna telly this week
Thursday 30th June
| Scotland v Italy (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
| Wales v Georgia (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Saturday 2nd July
| Japan v France | 07:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| New Zealand v Ireland | 08:00 | Sky Sports Action |
| Australia v England | 10:55 | Sky Sports Action |
| South Africa v Wales | 16:05 | Sky Sports Action |
| Argentina v Scotland | 20:10 | Sky Sports Main Event |
Tuesday 5th July
| France v South Africa (U20s) | 16:00 | YouTube |
| England v Ireland (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Wednesday 6th July
| Scotland v Georgia (U20s) | 16:00 | YouTube |
| Wales v Italy (U20s) | 19:00 | YouTube |
Ovally Balls 
Strong rumours that Ireland are looking to play Sexton next week ….days after WR announced 12 day stand down following failed HIAs. Not sure how they’re hoping to engineer this … but it’s “not a good look”.
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We’re expecting changes for the 2nd test, though not clear what they’ll be … already 40 man panel looks thin.
Scannell will have to be bench hooker. Ed Byrne is likely to be parachuted in a bench LH. Assume Sexton doesn’t play… that puts either Frawley or H Byrne as sub 10. Hansen may return. Gibson Park wasn’t good – too frantic at times.
Farrell”s over-reliance on Leinster cohesion may have paid dividends in delivering results to a coach who was – to an extent – was certainly under pressure early in his reign. But we’ve seen how to bust Leinster in the end games of the season. I’d say Farrell needs to change it up – and present some different problems. Otherwise, we’re looking at 2019 again …. when teams “worked us out”
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Now, Farrell has a degree of cover based on how Munster and – to a lesser extent – Ulster finished their seasons.
Munster ended up the season losing to Leinster’s Bs – how can Munster players push for inclusion ahead of their Leinster equivalent? Munster’s selection policies don’t help. Someone like Casey hasn’t been 1st choice ahead of Murray – how can he push to be ahead of Gibson Park?
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Think I need to watch the Bok match again. Wine and tequila gave me the view that whilst we were crap in the 1st half, that we did enough, once Jantjies and then Faf went off and the bomb squad came on, to win. Not a decisive win, but enough. Not many on the Graun think so.
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Deeb, agree on all counts. Wales rarely threatened the line and once SA got rid of its poor ” charnière “, it went according to plan. Not pretty but effective.
IMHO, both teams would be much better if they tried to play some rugby rather than just kicking the ball away. When they did ( not for long, admitedly) it was not only more efficient but also more entertaining for us.
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Agreed, Flair. It was poor until a bit more ball in hand (and not just forwards) came into the game. Didn’t realise that Jantjies hadn’t played a match since January due to injury which explains his atrocious form to a degree, but Faf was also horrid and a lot of humble pie is being eaten down here by those who loathe Herschel Jantjies, who on the day was way better than Faf when he came on. Faf is almost becoming a caricature of himself with the endlessly delayed pose at the base of every ruck, toe pointed heavenward before hoofing too far downfield for an effective chase.
The expectation down here is that Pollard will be restored to 10 post haste and that PS du Toit is likely to be back at 7 in place of Franco Mostert, who may drop to the bench or out of the 23 altogether. Growing concern over Siya Kolisi’s lack of form, which has been pretty much the whole season so far throughout the URC and now on Saturday. It would be a political bombshell as much as anything else to drop him, but he needs to get his game back to where it was last year and 2019. Any of Elrich Louw, Marcel Coetzee, Kwagga Smith, or Evan Roos would be a better option on recent form.
On the plus side, Damian Willemse had a very good game and justified the faith the Boks coaching staff have in him, Kolbe in green and gold is always magical and he, Mapimpi and Am can get their hands on the ball a bit more in open play, we could produce some glorious rugby.
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SH 4 – Europe zilch after weekend one isn’t looking good for Kitson’s predictions thus far either. I called Arg-Sco wrong, but it was always a tricky one, got blessed by the gods on the Aus-Eng match, was right about the Boks struggling against Wales, and got the NZ-Ire result right, if not the chasm on the scoreboard. Think I’ll dust off my CV and send it through to them.
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Another thought on the Bok-Wales match is that Wales may have lost four out of five in the ^N this year, but only Ireland actually clobbered them – the rest were all losing bonus point losses, by four each against England and France and one against Italy, with a a three point win against Scotland. Suggests to me that Wales know how to compete and are very difficult to break down comprehensively, but perhaps are just lacking in a bit of something special or self-belief to get it over the line?
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Deebee, Pollard had an awful season with Montpellier. He mostly remained on the bench, Garbisi owned the 10 shirt. No threat in attack and a turnstile in defence. He appeared for the last 10 minutes vs Castres in the T14 final and managed to miss 3 tackles. Not the player he was several years ago.
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Well that’s a depressing bit of news, thanks Flair! 10 is rapidly developing into a huge problem for us. If Pollard is that dire, Jantjies is 100% a confidence player (with none on display) and nobody else seemingly being considered. Willemse can do a job there but is preferred at 15, with the potential to move to 10 if needed, Manie Libbok had a very good season at 10 for the Stormers but is now with the 7s team, Chris Smith at the Bulls is a poor man’s Morne Steyn (although that sounds quite seductive to be honest!), Johan Goosen is seen as a saviour by some but is broken more than than he plays, and Curwin Bosch at the Sharks is a poor man’s Elton Jantjies. You have Sacha Mngomezulu at the U20 tournament at the moment, but he’s had a couple of appearances for the Stormers this season and no more.
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Wales know how to compete and are very difficult to break down
I think Wales retain the “muscle memory” of Gatland/Edwards era. But looking at the performance of the regions (in URC/Europe) vs the national team – from the outside it’s hard not to wonder how much longer that disparity can continue. The gap has to close – and one hopes it’s not national team aligning to the regions*
I know I’m complaining above about Farrell betting the farm on Leinster, but a successful club team can drive performance – if only by holding international team mates to the expected standard. (Can go too far when it’s assumed club players in successful team are better option than better players in a less successful team – cohesion etc)
* of course, part of me would find it highly entertaining but for the betterment of rugby etc etc
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10 is rapidly developing into a huge problem for us
I think I saw enough of the SA teams in URC to offer a view.
Smith at the Bulls is fairly prosaic – he’ll kick his goals and find touch but nothing spectacular- maybe that’s enough with your pack and outside backs .
Sharks would be a serious threat with a better 9-10 – good backs but seriously disorganised from what I saw
Libbok blows hot and cold – nailed that 83rd min conversion vs Ulster but was fairly horrid before that – missed a DG attempt from directly in front just before it. Good in open play but you’d miss structure. I could see how 7s might suit.
Don t think I saw enough of the Lions to venture an opinion on 10. Hendrickse seemed to be similar to Libbok – running threat but not a “general”.
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Belated Happy Birthday Craigs, I hope it was a good one.
Regarding the Boks selection in the back row, I thought the Scottish Glasgow v Edinburgh selection was bad for arguments, and it is, but the South African provincial arguments I’ve seen online make the Scottish version pale into a mild tiff at play time in primary school.
Smith played very well when he came on, and as has been said, Louw, Coetzee and Roos were all playing well at the denouement of the URC.
Scotland’s result was disappointing, if not altogether unexpected, away from home against a team ranked one place below us. We really aren’t very good, and we rely far too heavily on Finn and Hoggy, it is what it is.
Scotland’s performance was personified by Blair Kinghorn, a few absolute howlers in the first and then he got us back into the game in the third quarter with some real Skillz.
The truth is we never got going in that first period, Kinghorn at ten needs continuity from his pack and some ball, we had neither, the game was very disjointed and Argentina capitalised on our high error count and poor discipline.
The so called Blair Switch Project, Kinghorn moving to ten from fullback, is still not even a calendar year old, he’s play well over 100 games for Edinburgh but only this season has be been concentrating at ten. The Glasgow fans hate it, on the whole, many of the Edinburgh fans too are not that keen, but for me the project is worth pursuing because he offers so much in attack and he plays the type of rugby I love to watch. He is still throwing howlers of passes from time to time, one of them led to and Argentina try, then two passes in the 2nd half opened up the opposition defence and we got two tries back.
There was a third pass zipped out to the wing which outstripped the defence and saw our player with open prairie in front of him. Ref Berry judged it forward but we didn’t see any replay on it, I would have liked to have seen the move completed and then come back for a TMO check on the pass. We scored with the exact same move against Chile last week.
Finn can do this stuff, but the other fly halves available to us can’t. Hastings is good in heavy traffic in that he has great feet and he can dodge tackles, but I don’t think he has that fizzing pass across a defence that we see from the likes of Finn and Sexton
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Also, we have one of the best centres on recent form playing in the Gallagher Premiership (Hutchinson), and we play him at full back, preferring instead the hard-running Sam Johnson.
Now maybe it was injury to young Ollie Smith that led to this selection, or maybe it was that Townsend wanted Johnson’s experience alongside Kinghorn. Maybe Townsend didn’t trust Smith’s youth and inexperience at fullback, but we have to mix it up for next week.
I’d be tempted to play Darcy Graham at fullback if Smith isn’t going to be there and bring in Rufus MacLean to the wing, he is a lot stronger than his size would suggest and he bounces tacklers off quite readily.
Then play Hutchinson at 12, where he belongs.
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However, none of this addresses the lack of possession in the first half, which was down to the pack not getting their mitts on the ball.
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Hmm, looks like we should swap some players and tactics, Ticht – you can’t get the ball and we don’t know what to do with it.
Curry out of the Aussie tour with concussion. That’s a big blow.
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Curry out of the Aussie tour with concussion
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Well, at least they’re following good practice…. unlike us.
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Thanks everyone. I saw my folks last weekend and will be having a more disgraceful celebration on Saturday.
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England absolutely creaming it in the cricket at the moment – 100 without loss inside 20 overs chasing 378 for the win. Will be absolutely remarkable if they can do it. Still theoretically got 140-odd over to do it in as well.
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So effectively need two an over from here, where they’re scoring at five an over
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Oops! Sorry, I’ll get my coat.
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Curry’s withdrawal may not be too detrimental.
He’s not been at his best for a while and there are other good players champing at the bit:
Underhill, Ludlum, Willis……..
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England creaming it again! 100+ partnership between Root and YJB putting them in the pound seats for tomorrow.
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Curry and Itoje both are very good players who seem to have levelled out, and keep making dumb mistakes. With reference to the best spoiler in the pro era, Saint Ruchie, while he constantly pushed the limits, if a ref was pinging him for something, he stopped it. Both Curry and Itoje repeatedly seem to get penalised for the same offence 5 minutes after the have been done by the ref, and then look amazed and surprised when it happens again, and for the third time . I would very much like to see England have a crack with two actual real live flankers on the pitch, would be happy to see Ludlam/Willis and Underhill next week, with Courtney back where he belongs.
And happy 40th to Craigs, you young whippersnapper.
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July is the best month for birthdays….
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BB – it will be when all the Northern Hemisphere pull off (karl) series victories in the coming weeks.
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BB – agree! (Mine is Thursday.) Happy birthday!
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Happy B’day BB
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Happy bbb.
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Well that’s fucked it.
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Happy birthday all you other July babies too. Big win at cricket again for England, big win this weekend for Wallabies.
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“We said from the outset that we needed to strike a balance between giving our talented young players an opportunity to show what they can do at international level, and winning,” said Nienaber. as he announced 14 changes to the starting lineup for this Saturday! Balance? Fuck me, on that basis, Bojo is a balanced Prime Minister! Piers Morgan is a balanced social and political commentator! The Tower of Pisa is dead straight and loses part of its name and Jacques Nienaber doesn’t understand the meaning of the English word ‘balanced’. Only one of those is actually true and I’m not saying which one.
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The Team (not sure capitals are justified):
15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Kurt Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Aphelele Fassi, 10 Handre Pollard (captain), 9 Jaden Henrikse, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Joseph Dweba, 1 Thomas du Toit.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Rynhardt Elstadt, 21 Deon Fourie, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Damian Willemse.
In bold. Bold move by the Bok brains trust. Boldly going where no selector has gone before. Perhaps further into the realms of fantasy than Jean-Luc Picard, although Nienaber shares a hairstyle at least with Patrick Stewart. I’m flabbererd and ghasted. Will Wales be pissing themselves laughing or feeling like they’ve just got a slap in the face with a wet fish the likes of which haven’t been seen since Unhygienix dished one to the Romans?
No doubting that there is some serious talent on display, but it’s more a Bokbarian side than a Springbok team. Pedants will point to their being 9 World Cup winners in the squad, but that was three years ago and there’s bugger all continuity in this squad. Not sure if the thinking is that because the SA ‘A’ side was able to pull a fast one over the Lions that this side can do the same, but Wales know exactly what is coming at them in terms of physicality and style, just without cohesion (not that there was much of that display last weekend to be fair).
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I’m sure they’re all good players. Boks by 20.
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Interesting development. Good player but like all cross code converts will have to be exceptional to be successful. Will wait and see
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@OT
Been a while since we saw a big name move (at least in NH) – or it’s been a while since I noticed one
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@trisk
I think they’ve cottoned on finally it’s hard to make a successful transition. Thing is Regan Grace is a fantastic player but to get into the Wales team he would have to be better than LRZ and Josh Adams, which I’m not certain he is.
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At last – my beer tastes much better,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Javid and Sunak the first to jump………..
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Slade – indeed, indeed … glued to the news!
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The sleekit have gone.
The slimy are silent.
The stupid are staying.
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Very well summed up, BB!
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Thaum – it might be that it’s the resignations of the ‘little people’ that cause the most damage.
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BB – yes, there’s a constant drip-feed of that. The little people are probably the ones who do any real work.
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Saw Starmer interviewed earlier in something that had obviously been planned for, and dozed off. Just seen Rayner hijacked on the street, who was so much sharper and to the point.
Rayner for LOTO!
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The end of Johnson can’t come soon enough, he’s an absolute disaster for the UK. I’m not sure if it’s Brexit, the Ukraine war or other factors, but I mentioned that when I was in the UK a few weeks ago how expensive everything had become, in pound terms, not the rotten little Rand. The cost of living for ordinary Brits seems to spiralled out of control.
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Bojo kills blog. Another ‘victory’ for Tory Britain.
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@deebee
Inflation is around 8.5% in both US and the Eurozone so you can’t blame Boris or Brexit for that one.
The CRB commodity index is currently below what it was around 2011 and in 2007/8 so it suggests inflation isn’t a.fundamental increase of prices but more of a supply chain squeeze caused by the upsurge in demand post-covid.
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Pollard looking as confused as everyone else with the latest selection.
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