Being short of time as I’m travelling tomorrow, I have shamelessly stolen Deebee7‘s prognostications.
But first, I’m sure we can all rejoice that Stuart McCloskey has kept his starting place on the Ireland team with Aki relegated to the bench.
Your results for the weekend:
Tonga v Uruguay: Tonga by 14 – Tonga are enjoying playing against Spanish speaking sides, and will dish the pain once again!
Italy v South Africa: South Africa by 4 – Boks have had two narrow losses and will look to get their tour on the board, with four straight losses for the two sides so far. Bench to haul them over the line.
Wales v Georgia: Wales by 19 – good win for Wales last week and they’ll look to build on that (and cement their place in the 6N at Georgia’s expense).
Romania v Samoa: Samoa by 6 – just because I don’t have a clue, but Samoa seem to better at the moment.
Scotland v Argentina: Argentina by 3 – Did Scotland blow a gasket against the Kiwis last week? Argentina have some good scalps this year and will look to take a Scottish one on their own turf.
England v New Zealand: New Zealand by 9 – don’t think it’ll be a shellacking, but the Kiwis are cruising this November tour after a dodgy start against Japan.
Ireland v Australia: Ireland by 8 Aussies are one from three, but all their matches have been single point affairs so far. Ireland will put a bit of distance on the scoreboard, but not that much.
France v Japan: France by 24 Japan won’t be as bad as they were against England, but they also don’t have the ability to step up and close the gap that much either. France for win 13 on the trot and getting within touching distance of some serious records.
Onna telly this week
Friday 18th November
| Sale v Harlequins | 19:30 | BT Sport 1 |
Saturday 19th November
| Italy v South Africa | 13:00 | Amazon Prime |
| Wales v Georgia | 13:00 | Amazon Prime |
| Scotland v Argentina | 15:15 | Amazon Prime |
| England v New Zealand | 17:30 | Amazon Prime |
| Ireland v Australia | 20:00 | Amazon Prime |
Sunday 20th November
| France v Japan | 13:00 | Amazon Prime |
Ovally Balls 
Who do France play away to, Flair? Your guys are definitely putting down a marker for next year, along with Ireland. I’d imagine they’ll be the two shooting it out for the 6N trophy, with the rest some distance behind.
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Italy, Ireland, England
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Deebee, what BB said.
I wouldn’t forget England for the title. Except Wales and Italy, all teams could win the 6N.
Injuries after the first part of the Hcup, bad weather, playing away more often than at home, all these elements tend to level up the field, which I love. The final result might depend upon where Ireland and Scotland play one another or vs England.
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We play England at Twickenham first up. We do at least have a winning streak there…..
We play Ireland at home. We don’t have a winning streak against them and that probably won’t change. By that time Finn will probably have fallen oot with Toonie again.
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Flair, can’t see you losing to Italy, but the matches against Ireland and England are likely o be ferocious. At home to Scotland Wales should be okay (apologies all round), but a French Grand Slam would be monumental given the fixtures.
PS – there is rebellion afoot in South Africa with club coaches starting to speak out against Rassie. I’m not sure he’ll be in France next year unless he shuts up or Twitter goes bust. Both pleasing options.
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Yep, both pleasing options.
I don’t expect a GS. My money would be on Ireland. If Sexton was 10 years younger or not so prone to concussions, it’d be a given. Without him, they remain well drilled but unimpressive. France are still a work in progress which is both good news and bad news. Almost settled but still some room for improvement.
6N rugby is winter rugby, as opposed to the next RWC which should allow for more running and passing the ball.
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Thought the Ireland v Aus match was absolutely dire. We were a side with no apparent plan at all.
Watched France v Japan earlier this evening and it was very entertaining even if it ended up being rather one-sided.
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Don’t think the third game being away rather than at home makes any real difference to the teams with notions about winning the championship as it’s always against Italy. Can’t say the same for the ones bumbling around near the bottom though.
French GS would be quite something as it’s very rare for anyone to get back to back ones. And yes they have the two other best teams away from home though there does look to be quite a gap between France/Ireland and the rest despite Ireland’s turgid display against Aus.
I assume Wales were terrible on Saturday, not a surprise in itself though losing was, but I didn’t see it and won’t be watching it. Quite enjoyed the England game though I didn’t think either team played especially well. Can’t explain to myself why I carried on watching the Ireland game all the way through.
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Have to say Townsend is something of a genius. He dropped Monsieur Le Genie to get him to buck his ideas up, and brought him back with perfect timing to start the Scotland run for the world cup, being remotivated and in fine fettle after a well deserved rest for a couple of games. Thought Argentina were a touch unlucky with the refereeing rub of the green.
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Thauma, I only saw a 10-minute highlights package of the Ireland-Aus game, and even that was hard to watch. The quality of the Wales-Georgia game was arguably worse, but the tension around Georgia pulling off such a massive upset made that highlights package more bearable. A feature of this year’s Autumn Internationals is how close so many of the matches have been – matches between the top tier nations (including Japan) saw 10 results out of 16 settled by a converted try or less. If you add in Wales-Georgia and Scotland’s 8 point loss to NZ, it’s 12 out of 18. Bodes well for next year.
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Lies: the tension around Georgia pulling off such a massive upset made that highlights package more bearable.
Damned Lies: If you add in Wales-Georgia … Bodes well for next year.
Statistics that you can see can’t be right because Deebee’s been daft enough to show his dodgy workings: matches between the top tier nations (including Japan) saw 10 results out of 16 settled by a converted try or less. If you add in Wales-Georgia and Scotland’s 8 point loss to NZ, it’s 12 out of 18.
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There are some very salty Ireland supporters, in the replies
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Would love to have asked why Scotland-NZ only counts as top tier if you pretend it was closer than it was, but feel I’d be on dodgy ground given recent events. Need TomP back for that sort of brazen behaviour and also to let me know if there’s a special word for mathematical pedantry.
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I won’t say this is from a Scottish perspective, this is my own take on our four games. It’s all about the hours.
Aus – I was gutted to lose that, we were the better side for an hour, we were 15 – 6 up going in to the final quarter, we had a kick to win it at the end and we did what Scotland do.
Fiji – for about an hour we were bullied terribly. I don’t think I’ve seen us be physically intimidated by the sheer brutality of the (completely legal) tackling of the opposition like we were then. The person I felt most sorry for was Adam Hastings’ mum, watching from the side as her laddie was pulverised in a tackle and taken off and out of the series as a result. Give them some real time together, the sort of time Japan had to prepare for their own World Cup, get all the best Fijian players available and they will be a threat to anyone.
New Zealand – I’m mightily pissed off with that game. Again we were leading after an hour and we were actually in control. Apart from not getting off the bus for the first seven minutes we were by far the better side. Okay, they had rested one or two players, but this was still New Zealand and we have never beaten them, this may have been our best ever chance.
Argentina – I never thought we’d lose this one, Finn had played very well the previous week and the pack had been going quite well over the series, even if we were missing Watson (it really shows when he’s not there), Skinner, Cummings, Ritchie Gray and Darge.
Argentina completely lost their heads and the game went with them. Yes they shipped a lot of cards, but discipline is part of the game too, as well we know and we scored 8 tries.
I’ve love to say that our series came out as a 50/50, but I can’t. The fact that we coughed up games against our two toughest opponents from a position of being the better side on the day and in control on the scoreboard makes it harder to take than just plain old getting cuffed like we are so used to.
We don’t really have the personnel to make a difference, perhaps Rory Hutchinson could make a difference in midfield. Toonie drops centres who miss tackles, so Matt Scott could be playing like peak SBW and he’s not going to get another chance under Townsend. There is a lot of talk about Chris Harris, and to be fair he was bailed out by another fantastic finish by Darcy Graham at the weekend, but we do seem a more difficult side to break down when he’s playing. Mark Bennett has been ripping up trees from Edinburgh, but he missed a tackle against the ABs and was dropped for Argentina.
Tuipulotu was good over the course, but he’s a completely different player to Redpath, the broadsword to Redpath’s epee.
So we’ve developed a centre conundrum of our own. There is talk of Hutchinson’s team mate Fraser Dingwall being approached, but nothing has come of it yet, speaking of which Toonie has also had words with young Fin Smith of Saints, his grandfather played for Scotland and the Lions. I’ve only seen him play once and he really did look the part at 10.
We don’t have the heft of some teams, so all of the above is moot until we really develop a modern day version of the old fast rucking game which brought us a couple of Grand Slams, a game which allowed us to play two number 8s in the second row to keep the pace up. We can’t do that (we don’t have enough number 8s for a start) but we have to play a really fast game because when we start to try match the power of others we are found badly wanting.
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Agen have signed Elton Jantjies with immediate effect after his Japanese club told him to do one when news of his indiscretions emerged. Not sure slogging it out in the French second division will do his World Cup aspirations much good, but then I think Manie Libbok pretty much extinguished them on Saturday anyway. Looked to the manor born, although he’ll get a much sterner test against England on Saturday, for sure.
Vincent Koch, Jasper Wiese, Cobus Reinach, Cheslin Kolbe and Andre Esterhuizen all unavailable for England with the Test outside the official window, so a bit of juggling needed to put the side together. Add in du Toit banned and de Jager injured, and we’re possibly a bit light in the pack.
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I like this.
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Watch the whole thing – it’s awesome.
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SBT – I’ll take your Toonie is a genius and raise by Eddie even more of genius. Make the team play like guff for 70 mins and then issue the command to get them to play well but only well enough to not give away all of our secrets and secure the draw. Kick it off the field, no one feels satisfied and leave the Kiwis scratching their heads.
Innit.
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No Ben Youngs or Dan Biggar…
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Hrmm.
Furlong has been my favourite (non -Scotland) player for a good few years now, but I’m not sure he’s been at his very best in 2022. Malcom Marx doesn’t usually start for the Boks, I think both Mbonambi and probably Koch can be a bit cheesed off.
Thoughts Deebee?
Dupont was magnificent int he 6N, – not sure about his form since then.
Freddie Steward was the best fullback in the world through 2022?
Really?
I don’t think any Scots have been hard done by, btw. Although if it was just on the last three months Darcy Graham might be in with a shout
I was told I must watch the Wales Georgia game, just for the last ten minutes, so I went for the extended highlights. The Georgian scrum was a thing of beauty, but I think they got a bit of a friendly decision for the last one, they battered the Welsh pack, no doubt, but I thought Wales got the ball away.
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On hookers, I think Sheehan has great potential
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Ticht – If anything, Freddie Steward has been the best thing to happen to England in the last year so I’ll take that. Ribbans was ridiculous off the bench on Saturday. Jonny Hill has his work cut out to keep his starting spot imo.
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Didn’t realise that Georgia had beaten Italy as well this year. Pool C next year could be a humdinger if current form continues!
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Ticht, Bongi was the better hooker at the last World Cup, but in the last year or so, Marx has been in stupendous form. He’s also started more matches than he did last year. Koch is definitely bomb squad, with Frans Malherbe the starting TH. I think Etzebeth may be a bit hard done by, he’s had a great season, but lots of competition in the 2nd row.
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Craigs, that’s as maybe, but would you rather have Steward or Ange Capuozzo in the England 15 jersey after what you’ve seen this year?
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Aye Deebee, I thought it was tight between them.
You’re right on Etzebeth, he’s been in great form.
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Wonder what the threshold for doctors getting it wrong is before matey changes his mind about HIAs? ‘The doctors are the science’. No they aren’t. The science states that if you get concussed you are more likely to have issues in later life (to paraphrase The Science). Doctors assess whether you are concussed and will make mistakes. Nic White has been stood down after a second opinion. This is such bullshit.
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Ticht – still Steward actually. As great as Capuozzo has been. Although, I haven’t watched more than the highlights for Italy Steward is solid under the high ball and very powerful. He lacks pace sure but not by much.
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Should say that Kearney and the other guys in that clip are right IMO.
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I forgot to mention something in the summary, one of my highlights over the series was WP Nel winning his 50th Scotland cap against New Zealand at the age of 36 years and 7 months.
He has 176 Edinburgh appearances, with 21, count ’em, 21 tries to his credit.
The man is a legend of Edinburgh Rugby, whether or not he chooses to carry on after this season, he’s been a great servant of the club and his adopted country.
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That list is pretty funny.
Only considering France players, I’d take Baille over Genge, Marchand over Marx, Ollivon over Matera and Penaud ahead of Jordan. And that’s not even considering NZ or Australia.
And Sexton, seriously? Unless you intend to play like Ireland, there’d be no room for him in most tier 1 teams. Certainly not France, Scotland or NZ.
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I think I’d take Ramos at 15
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Matt Williams to the centre of the sun, sharpish!
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Flair, I’d want to find a 13 jersey for Gael Fickou too, he may not grab as many headlines, but he runs France’s defensive line like a military operation – it’s not just all down to Shaun Edwards, he needs his lieutenants on the park to make it work.
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“Matt Williams to the centre of the sun, sharpish!”
said every Scottish rugby fan since 2003
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Ticht, I’d obviously take Fickou ahead of DeAllende and not only for his defensive qualities. He’s the French equivalent of Conrad Smith.
I’d also take Ramos ahead of Steward but then my first choice would be Barrett. Or the Irish lad, very good and very quick.
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Innit.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/nov/21/world-rugby-investigating-australia-not-substituting-white-after-brain-injury
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@Refit
The van der Flier is South African gag started with Three Red Kings – mainly as pushback against the borderline xenophobia that pops up from time to time but focused mainly on Munster’s Saffas (mainly Stander, Kleyn, Grobler)
Stander – well, when he retired from Munster, he was going to start again in SA (not yet anyway_
Kleyn – we’d have won RWC 2019 with good old Devin Toner but Schmidt wouldn’t listen to reason. (Kleyn is married to an Irishwoman and looks pretty settled here – but he stole Dev’s rightful place)
Grobler – signed for Munster – to little notice then 5 months the bomb dropped over his drugs ban – cheating Saffa should be cast into the uttermost darkness
Since playing in Ireland an d being from SA was a borderline mortal sin, TRK made a gag about “Joburg Josh” – and lots of Leinster fans bit – “He’s from Wicklow”, “His grandfather is Dutch”.
3 years later – it’s still going. Still get some idiots who don’t get it as a joke, and some who are offended that anyone would consider Leinster would stoop to having a Saffa project player on the books, and others annoyed that the joke is still going….despite the fact that it’s driven by their own cohort.
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Springboks (vs England, Tuesday)
15 – Willie le Roux (Toyota Verblitz) – 82 caps, 65 pts (13t)
14 – Kurt-Lee Arendse (Vodacom Bulls) – 6 caps, 30 pts (6t)
13 – Jesse Kriel (Canon Eagles) – 58 caps, 60 pts (12t)
12 – Damian de Allende (Wild Knights) – 69 caps, 45 pts (9t)
11 – Makazole Mapimpi (Cell C Sharks) – 35 caps, 110 pts (22t)
10 – Damian Willemse (DHL Stormers) – 26 caps, 30 pts (2t, 4c, 4p)
9 – Faf de Klerk (Canon Eagles) – 45 caps, 30 pts (5t, 1c, 1p)
8 – Evan Roos (DHL Stormers) – 2 caps, 0 pts
7 – Franco Mostert (Honda Heat) – 62 caps, 15 pts (3t)
6 – Siya Kolisi (captain, Cell C Sharks) – 74 caps, 45 pts (9t)
5 – Marvin Orie (DHL Stormers) – 10 caps, 0 pts
4 – Eben Etzebeth (Cell C Sharks) – 109 caps, 15 pts (3t)
3 – Frans Malherbe (DHL Stormers) – 57 caps, 5 pts (1t)
2 – Bongi Mbonambi (Cell C Sharks) – 55 caps, 60 pts (12t)
1 – Ox Nche (Cell C Sharks) – 18 caps, 0 pts
Replacements:
16 – Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears) – 58 caps, 70 pts (14t)
17 – Steven Kitshoff (DHL Stormers) – 70 caps, 10 pts (2t)
18 – Thomas du Toit (Cell C Sharks) – 14 caps, 0 pts
19 – Marco van Staden (Vodacom Bulls) – 9 caps, 0 pts
20 – Kwagga Smith (Shizuoka Blue Revs) – 30 caps, 20 pts (4t)
21 – Jaden Hendrikse (Cell C Sharks) – 11 caps, 12 pts (2t, 1c)
22 – Manie Libbok (DHL Stormers) – 2 cap, 10 pts (5c)
23 – Canan Moodie (Vodacom Bulls) – 3 caps, 5 pts (1t)
Looks weak.
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Apologies to CMW, but the Italian try v Wales is my pick from that, it was just such a monumental moment for Italy and for the tournament, multiple Grand Slam and competition winners, downed in their own back yard by a piece of magnificent running and change of direction from a skinny 14 year old boy in the age of Great Orcs on Dinosaurback.
It was beautiful.
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“Matt Williams to the centre of the sun, sharpish!”
Unfortunately, since his “success” with Leinster – he’s a staple on Irish tv….
Going into a home Heino semi with no reliable goalkicker doesn’t rate as success in my book.
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I think Sheehan has great potential
general feeling (outside Leinster) is he’s a bit on the big size for scrummaging – otherwise powerful presence in open play and getting back with the throwing. Kelleher is rated a better scrummager but has been injured a fair bit
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We were a side with no apparent plan at all.
this the problem with the reliance on Sexton – so many other players are reliant too, you get a complete system breakdown (notably JGP – looks great with Sexton).
Once the system, breaks all those Leinster players who fit the system beautifully suddenly look less impressive (O’Brien was great at 13 vs SA – no his normal position at all – but didn’t play well at either 15 or wing in last 2 games despite those being his preferred positions)
Same applied with Ireland A vs NZ A
Can’t explain to myself why I carried on watching the Ireland game all the way through.
No – only a game an diehard of either team would have been expected to watch
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Trisk,
“general feeling (outside Leinster) is he’s a bit on the big size for scrummaging ”
I’m not really sure why would be the case, unless his back is massively longer than those of his props and puts the second rows’ shoulders askew. An inch here or there won’t make a difference, I wouldn’t have thought.
The scrum half places the ball right in the pocket for the hooker now, and their foot is pretty much there as the feed comes in, so they only have to get the foot back into the driving position sharpish and they’re fine.
The refs don’t allow the scrum to go low enough for the hooking to be a problem – no hooking with the head these days!
Of course I could be mistaken in this, I’ve never been in a professional scrum, but the set up is pretty much the same as in the black and white days.
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Launch to Quins next season
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And Sexton, seriously? Unless you intend to play like Ireland
@Flair
This is the problem – Ireland have to play “like Ireland” because of Sexton. We’ve never learned to play w/o him. Everything revolves around him, and Ireland can’t play w/o him.
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Trisk, from one of your earlier posts:
Gibson Park kept passing to McCloskey (who was only ok yesterday) .
The Wobblies had 3 men on him at all times. So, as you said, a failure to adapt the gameplan.
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What I was thinking during the match is that, if we don’t have Sexton, we need a scrum-half who plays like a French 9 and can direct the game. Like Cooney or Doak. :-) It doesn’t hurt that they can kick too.
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Thaum, Cooney would be my starting 9. But then, Sexton , good servant as he was, wouldn’t be my starting FH.
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