Seventeen sides have received cards in the tournament so far, with a total of 39 yellow or red cards issued. Most ill-disciplined/unlucky/dirty bastards/ref’s a cheat are Romania and Samoa with five each, Samoa edging the evil stakes with four yellows and a red to Romania’s five yellows (albeit two to one player). Chile and Namibia are next on four each, with Namibia winning the Excellence in Evil award with two reds and two yellows, to Chile’s four yellows. So three of the four most offensive sides are minnows and people want them playing more regularly? Pfft! Clean yer act up, you lot!
Portugal, Tonga and Wales are on three each, with the latter on three yellows and the first two with a red and two yellows. Of the QF sides, Wales are by some distance the dirtiest, dirtiest bastards, with their three cards of shame, Argentina have two (both yellow), and England, New Zealand and Fiji on one apiece, although the Flying Fijians have a paltry yellow, compared to the horrific reds that the other two have. Interesting to note that none of the big sides has picked up a card at all – Ireland, France and the Boks have been squeaky clean (as you’d expect, especially from the Boks).
Discipline is going to be absolutely key from here on in, especially in the tackle area (Karl, go home), with fine, fine margins likely to decide the Groups A & B encounters, whilst neither Fiji nor Argentina has a snowball’s against England and Wales if they are reduced to 14 for any length of time. So, to the matches themselves.
Wales v Argentina, Saturday, 4pm Marseille
Wales have had the best scrum so far in the World Cup, but the slowest at clearing the rucks, whilst for Argentina – once a feared scrummaging unit – it’s the exact opposite. Argentina have struggled this year, losing to England despite being a man up for the majority of the match, and not looking all that flash in their must-win encounter against Japan. Wales have been Gatball personified: well organised, fit and stingy on defence and this should get them over the line against the erratic, but more erotic, Argentines. If Argentina’s backs click (and they’ll need good, clean ball for this, and Wales without Faletau may be slightly weakened here) they are as good as anyone’s bar possibly France and Ireland and could sneak through in dramatic style. Wales though, play pragmatic rugby first and are likely to wear down Argentina and prevail in the end – with perhaps some LRZ magic to go with it. Wales by less than 10.
Ireland v New Zealand, Saturday 8pm, Stade de France
A massive, massive encounter with some wonderful recent history between the sides – most of it in Ireland’s favour. They’ve duffed the Kiwis in a series in Mordor and have had the rub against them more often than not in recent years (can’t be bothered to look at the actual stats, the cards ones were enough for one week). Ireland are the complete package, with a very strong tight five and probably the best balanced and most accomplished loose trio in the world at present. None of O’Mahoney, van der Vlier or Doris is a huge man – they’re all around 106kg – but they’re nimble, feisty and intelligent, giving their backs the platform to weave their magic from. Sexton commands his troops behind the marauding pack with aplomb, giving space and time to a very well-drilled and skilful back line. There really isn’t much you can fault in the side. The Kiwis have apparently been slipping in under the radar. I’m not so sure. Yes, they’ve been ruthless in dispatching the lesser sides, including an appalling Italy, but their last two Big Tests have been against teams that actually defend – and the Boks and France have both dispatched them with room to spare. Are they coming to the boil at the right time? I’m not so sure: they have a callow front row, an illustrious but fading second row and an unbalanced back row, with a captain many Kiwis don’t think should be in the side at all. The backs remain lethal, however, and give the All Blacks a puncher’s chance of creating an upset. Yes, an upset. Ireland by 7 or a bit more.
England v Fiji, Sunday, 4pm, Marseille
The Flying Fijians have been more a Sopwith Camel with a spluttering engine, than an F16 jet this tournament, and come up against the most ridiculed sporting side in the history of ridicule. A question of who wants it less may be on the cards. Fiji have lost a couple of key players and the bereavement in the camp may upset their rhythm – or it may spur them on to greater things. They’re still capable of breathtaking tries and length of the field gallops, but their final passes and general handling have let them down this year. Get it right, and they could pull off the shock of the weekend (yes, I know they beat England a few months ago, but still). England? They’ve picked the Venus de Milo at 10, with his unique interpretation of None Shall Pass! and Marcus Smith at 15 – not a familiar position for him and one that he may regret if a few 20 stone (not sure if that’s an actual, possible weight for a man) Fijians come flying through the defenders in front of him. England’s pack should have the measure of Fiji’s and I think we’ll see slow poison from them, with Farrell pulling the strings from behind, although I don’t expect a symphony of slickness outside of him. England by 10 or thereabouts.
France v South Africa, Sunday 8pm, Stade de France
It is testimony to my great skills set that I’m able to type this whilst hiding behind the couch with my eyes closed. For every moment of surging belief that the Boks are Back and have been playing possum up until now (there’s a lot of tinfoil speculation that this is indeed the case down here) and will now reveal their full hand, there’s a sinking feeling that this is as good as it gets and we’ve got no more gears. The Boks have picked a side that has surprised many – with Cobus Reinach preferred to Faf and Libbok retaining the 10 jersey over supposed saviour Pollard. Damian Willemse at 15 may be the number one kicker as well. All in all, it look a more enterprising back division (save for de Allende at 12) and the 5-3 split on the bench has two very good fetchers and link players in Deon Fourie and Kwagga Smith, as well as the monstrous presence of RG Snyman in addition to the two props. Faf, Pollard and Willie le Roux give the Boks more flexibility in terms of how the match is progressing – if we’re well up, Faf will keep France pedalling backwards; if we need points, Pollard to kick; if we need creativity, Willie to play first receiver. France? Well, like Ireland they have few weaknesses and some sublime players – it’s not just about Dupont, with Jalibert, Fickou, Penaud and Ramos they have stardust aplenty in the backs. France also have a pack that can match the Boks in every department, including the famed ‘physicality’, and have been extremely disciplined. The set pieces should be titanic and it’s an area in which the Boks have been curiously sloppy in this tournament. France also attack wonderfully – when it’s on. A curious note is that apparently France have kicked more than any other side in the last 8, which is strange for a side of supposed gazelles, but the Kiwis also did it in their pomp. Clever, accurate kicking is poison to opponents and France have been excellent at this. As the depression settles in reading this, I’m reminded that the Boks almost beat France in Marseille in November last year, despite having played most of the match with 14, so it’s not all over, yet. It should be a humdinger! The head is leaning towards France with their fantastic side and even more magnificent supporters, the heart is pure green and gold. I’m going with the heart. Boks by no more than 3.
Bokky sunshiny optimism by Deebee7.
Blog News
I’ve added a page to the site for help with Tech Issues (click on Other Pages at the top right). So far it addresses the issue of WordPress not remembering your login and not allowing you to recommend posts or comments.y
Also, I have heard from TomPirracas who has sent this fab video of great reffing.
Onna telly this week
Friday 13th October
| Bristol v Leicester | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 14th October
| Exeter v Saracens | 13:30 | TNT Sports 1 |
| Wales v Argentina | 16:00 | ITV1 / STV / S4C / iPlayer |
| Ireland v New Zealand | 20:00 | ITV1 / STV |
Sunday 15th October
| Sale v Northampton | 13:30 | TNT Sports 1 |
| England v Fiji | 16:00 | ITV1 / STV / RTÉ2 |
| France v South Africa | 20:00 | ITV1 / / STV / RTÉ2 |
Ovally Balls 
I think perhaps Ireland will win:
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Thanks Deebee and Thaum.
Premiership kicks off in an hour.
Bristol Bears: 15. Rich Lane, 14. Gabriel Ibitoye, 13. Benhard Janse van Rensburg, 12. James Williams, 11. Noah Heward, 10. AJ MacGinty, 9. Harry Randall; 1. Jake Woolmore, 2. Harry Thacker, 3. Max Lahiff, 4. James Dun, 5. Joe Batley, 6. Fitz Harding (c), 7. Dan Thomas, 8. Magnus Bradbury
Replacements: 16. Will Capon, 17. Andrew Turner, 18. Jay Tyack, 19. Josh Caulfield, 20. Steven Luatua, 21. Kieran Marmion, 22. Virimi Vakatawa, 23. Piers O’Conor
Leicester Tigers: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Josh Bassett, 13 Guy Porter, 12 Dan Kelly, 11 Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10 Charlie Atkinson, 9 Joe Powell, 1 Francois Van Wyk, 2 Charlie Clare, 3 Joe Heyes, 4 Cameron Henderson, 5 Harry Wells, 6 Hanro Liebenberg (c), 7 Olly Cracknell, 8 Matt Rogerson
Replacements: 16 Nic Dolly, 17 James Whitcombe, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Mike Williams, 20 Kyle Hatherell, 21 Tom Whiteley, 22 Jamie Shillcock, 23 Phil Cokanasiga
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womens” field lacrosse is 10-a-side with no physical contact and no clouting the ball carrier or anyone else with your stick.
Lactosse will be in the Olympics in L.A. – 6-a-side on, essentially, dry Ice-hockey stadia.
womens’ still no phyical contact; mens’ all-in helmets/padding the lot but is usually too fast for much contact and very difficult to film.\
Canada for the men and USA for the women will be favorites, I think.
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p.s. great AtL, thanks
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Reckon lactosse would be QUITE an interesting sport to see in the Olympics……
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Also, words Deebs and Thaum.
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Words Deebee!
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Almost time to see how Bristol perform without their star PI players.
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Slade – great video, thanks for that! Much better than the original. And very timely.
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Try Bristol!
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NOOOOO!!!! No interviews with players just after they score a try. Bugger off TNT Sport. (Although nobody’s really going to tell Martin Bayfield to bugger off).
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Buggrit. Shitty Discovery app made me miss the first try.
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mens 6-a-side ‘box’ lacrosse highlights:
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Oh, that was quite the try by Ibitoye!
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Good win for Bristol in the end, although they might regret not getting the try bonus point. Leicester were awful in the first half, better (slightly) in the second.
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Deebee, I may be wrong, but SA didn’t play vs France in Marseille last year “with most of the match with 14”.
PS Dutoit was RCarded after a head butt on Danty but soon afterwards Dupont was also RCarded, for taking Kolbe in the air. SA played with a man down for not much more than 15 minutes.
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“Buggrit. Shitty Discovery app”
Good heavens.
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The Guardian are still cracking me up with their headlines, “Steve Borthwick’s England reach point of definition against Fiji” being the latest.
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Nice article Deebee.
I would just about go for the same winners as you though I’m hoping for Wales, NZ, France and Fiji and don’t think that’s completely out of the question. I guess everyone who still has their team involved is pretty nervous…
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For what it’s worth Kitson tells us that “the Fijians are arguably the more predictable of the two opposing teams”. I think they went two out of four including losing to Portugal and only being consistent through an entire game once. England, the warm-up against Fiji aside, seem to beat teams ranked below them and lose to ones ranked above them, I don’t see them losing though I can understand that the Samoa game would give cause for alarm (it irritated me quite a bit that they didn’t go through with it and lose like Wales would have done).
I’m worried that Wales will struggle at the breakdown and Argentina will have one of their going days though I kind of think that what we’ve seen so far makes us favourites and we don’t normally do that badly when that’s the case other than against Tier 2 teams.
Will laugh like hell if Wales and England end up as the only NH representatives in the semi-finals even though I would prefer France to win the thing out of the likely candidates. I wouldn’t expect to laugh for more than a week though.
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‘If we are smiling nothing can stop us’ is another good Guardian headline, one for the ‘Pro I guess.
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@Flair – Deebs said nothing about how many players they had to play against. Now I can understand that you might feel he was claiming they were a man down even though he didn’t, but I will defend his righteous ATL accuracy until he stops backing Wales.
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Do I actually want him backing Wales though? Deebee – how do you normally get on with these predictions things?
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For Deebee
(I’ve not watched it, so I don’t know Squidge’s conclusion)
Refit – just watched it and after 30 odd minutes of analysing matches between between anybody except South Africa and France, they didn’t make a prediction!
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CMW, if ‘Bru rankings are anything to go by, you’ll want me backing Argentina.
Flair – forgot about Dupont being sent off, to be honest, but in my defence (cough) fifteen minutes against France is like a lifetime.
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India v Pakistan in the Cricket World Cup about to start. Enough needle in this one to lose a piece of hay in it! And playing at the 132,000 seater stadium name after India’s humble, self-effacing, democracy-embracing Prime Minister.
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My predictions:
Wales by 10
Ireland by 10
England by 10
France by 5
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I’ve gone
Wales by 9
Ireland by 13
England by 8
France by 5
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I was about to do my predictions and came up with 8 credible results – so I won’t.
All I ask is 4 great matches in which the players honour themselves and each other.
Really looking forward to them and no reds please!
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…………… 8 excluding draws!
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Real Rugby update:
Exeter Chiefs to face Saracens:
Josh Hodge; Immanuel Feyi-Waboso; Henry Slade; Tom Hendrickson; Tom Wyatt
Harvey Skinner; Tom Cairns
Scott Sio; Jack Yeandle (c); Ehren Painter; Rusi Tuima; Lewis Pearson; Ethan Roots; Jacques Vermeulen; Greg Fisilau
Replacements:
Max Norey; Billy Keast; Josh Iosefa-Scott
Aidon Davis; Ross Vintcent
Niall Armstrong; Will Haydon-Wood; Ben Hammersley
7 from last season’s 23; lots of academy players/graduates.
Going to be an interesting season. At least the play will be fast.
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Great stuff atl
I’ve driven past Berkhampstead school a few time, we have family nearby. The rugby facilities at the school are outstanding.
The Oxfam bookshop has a lot of rugby books which I usually buy. When I mentioned this previously on the old blog one of the posters said that it was probably her brother that had donated them.
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Mine:
Argentina by 4
Ireland by 7
England by 8
France by 5.
All results could be reversed. And probably will, considering my predictions accuracy.
Glad SA went bold, with Libbock. They won’t have any regret.
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That was quick from Exeter!
And in the time I forgot to post, Sarries have a guy sent to the bin and Exeter score another try!
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Now they get a third! Still 2 minutes on the yellow.
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Exeter bonus point try in less than 20 minutes! Sarries have been woeful!
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Oh, there’s another.
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Slade gets an intercept from Goode to get try number 5! 27-0 in 23 minutes and Sarries could have another in the bin for a high tackle.
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And a second yellow for Saracens – Aled Davis with contact to the head.
Possibly the worst start to a season happening here.
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Our Slade is gonna be enjoying this.
Now Goode’s gone for the corner, with a penalty, and put it the wrong side of the post.
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Try number 6!
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It’s raining tries at Sandy Park.
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Brilliant try from Hodge! He really seems to have come on hugely since I first saw him.
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41-0 at half time. Who’d have thought Exeter would be in the New Zealand role, and Sarries would be Italy?
(Although I suppose Exeter are playing in black – even though you can barely see it with all the sponsors logos…)
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Is the tide turning?
Sarries try and Exeter player off for a tip tackle.
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I don’t think I’ve every seen Sarries so comprehensively spanked. 48-5 down with only 55mins played.
Oh, TNT can fuck right off with the on-pitch, mid-match, post-try interviews.
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Treacletoes in for another Sarries try.
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Goode gets away with a shoulder block on the Exeter 10, after he puts a chip in for Roots to score their 10th try.
58-10 with 7mins to play.
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Rob Baxter looks happy….
Good job Exeter’s kicking has actually been rubbish today or they would have been even further ahead.
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Need to type faster, Chiefs have just scored their 11th.
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