You might think that Cardiff are completely out of the Champions Cup, but you’d be wrong! And you’d probably get very rich betting on them to go through. They just need a bonus-point victory over Racing 92 in Paris and for Ulster to not get more than one point.
Connacht, languishing at the bottom of their pool on one point, also have a theoretical chance.
All the permutations have been not very clearly worked out by BBC Sport.
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates free-to-view. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 19th January
| Connacht v Bristol | 20:00 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Glasgow v Toulon | 20:00 | TNT Sports 1 |
| Scarlets v Edinburgh | 20:00 | S4C / iPlayer |
| Gloucester v Castres | 20:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
Saturday 20th January
| Bulls v Bordeaux | 13:00 | TNT Sports Extra |
| Harlequins v Ulster | 13:00 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Black Lion v Clermont | 13:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Racing 92 v Cardiff | 15:15 | S4C / TNT Sports 2 |
| Leicester v Leinster | 15:15 | TNT Sports 1 |
| Oyonnax v Cheetahs | 15:15 | epcrugby.com |
| Treviso v Montpellier | 15:15 | epcrugby.com |
| Munster v Northampton | 17:30 | RTÉ2 / TNT Sports 1 |
| Stade Français v Stormers | 17:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Saracens v Lyon | 20:00 | TNT Sports 1 |
Sunday 21st January
| Sale v La Rochelle | 13:00 | ITV1 / STV / TNT Sports 2 |
| Perpignan v Newcastle | 13:00 | Viaplay Sports 2 |
| Lions v Ospreys | 13:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v Bath | 15:15 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Bayonne v Exeter | 17:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Dragons v Sharks | 17:30 | Viaplay Sports 2 |
Ovally Balls 
Well, that doesn’t look good
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Ireland Team
15. Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster)(36)
14. Calvin Nash (Young Munster/Munster)(1)
13. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster)(67)
12. Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht)(52)
11. James Lowe (Leinster)(26)
10. Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster)(9)
9. Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster)(30)
1. Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster)(59)
2. Dan Sheehan (Lansdowne/Leinster)(21)
3. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster)(72)
4. Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster)(5)
5. Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster)(46)
6. Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)(captain)(101)
7. Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster)(57)
8. Caelan Doris (St. Mary’s College/Leinster)(36)
Replacements:
16. Ronan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster)(26)
17. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)(125)
18. Finlay Bealham (Buccaneers/Connacht)(36)
19. James Ryan (UCD/Leinster)(59)
20. Ryan Baird (Dublin University/Leinster)(15)
21. Jack Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster)(41)
22. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)(112)
23. Ciaran Frawley (UCD/Leinster)(1).
Not a single Ulster player. Farrell oot!
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Not a single player from Ulster? France by 45 then.
That’s a hard game to call. Ireland will be better without Sexton whereas France will be much weaker without Dupont. I don’t think the French bench is that good either, especially the props.
Marseille will easily provide a better atmosphere than the cold and windy Stade de France. Too bad Deebee can’t make it there, the crowd would’ve sung “Bon anniversaire” for him! I would.
Enjoy the week-end, and don’t forget the U20 games, a bit earlier.
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Not a single player from Ulster? France by 45 then.
That’s a hard game to call. Ireland will be better without Sexton whereas France will be much weaker without Dupont. I don’t think the French bench is that good either, especially the props.
Marseille will easily provide a better atmosphere than the cold and windy Stade de France. Too bad Deebee can’t make it there, the crowd would’ve sung “Bon anniversaire” for him! I would.
Enjoy the week-end, and don’t forget the U20 games, a bit earlier.
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I definitely don’t think Ireland will be better without Sexton!
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I have to say it’s a little disappointing that both France and Ireland have gone 6/2 on the bench – one more step towards Orcs on Dinosaur-back, perhaps.
I hear Jalibert has been in fine form.
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@Slade, there is young lad who has been selected to play for Scotland U20s this weekend at hooker. He is from my home town and has apparently been with Exeter since the start of the season – Elliot Young.
The Scottish side contains a tichtheid, Ollie Blyth-Lafferty. He is aligned to the Edinburgh academy and is 18 years old. He weighs in at over 130kg, which is nearly 6kg or a stone more than Zander Fagerson who will start for the men’s first team.
Ollie’s older brother is a hooker and he is on the bench on Friday against Wales U20
Orcs on Dinosaur-back right enough.
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I hadn’t properly twigged that the 6N starts this Friday, until I was listening to the Blood & Mud podcast and they were doing team previews.
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Refit – I know! Isn’t it a bit earlier than usual?
Hope Deebs has sharpened his typing claw for the preview.
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Thaum, it’s always the first weekend in Feb, as far as I recall.
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Must be my old age kicking in. Or maybe it’s just because the first weekend happens to be very early in the month this year!
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Thaum, Ireland have to be better without Sexton. He may have inspired his team to play better (although some players must be happy to be relieved from his shackles) but he was well past his best years and was barely running at the RWC. He never was a threat ball in hand as everybody knew all he could do was kick or pass, no uncertainty.
The new guy, whoever he is, will keep defences more on their toes.
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Thaum, Ireland have to be better without Sexton. He may have inspired his team to play better (although some players must be happy to be relieved from his shackles) but he was well past his best years and was barely running at the RWC. He never was a threat ball in hand as everybody knew all he could do was kick or pass, no uncertainty.
The new guy, whoever he is, will keep defences more on their toes.
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@TichtI don’t think he has played for the first 23 yet, but:
https://www.exeterchiefs.co.uk/players/elliott-young
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…… and he’s at Exeter Univ. – don’t know what he is studying.
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Baffling England picks from Borthers. Can’t understand Marler, Cole, Care or Coles. Feels like we have Eddie Jones lite in charge.
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England: Steward; Freeman, Slade, Dingwall, Daly; Ford, Mitchell; Marler, George (capt), Stuart, Itoje, Chessum, Roots, Underhill, Earl.
Replacements: Dan, Genge, Cole, Coles, Cunningham-South, Care, F Smith, Feyi-Waboso
Dab. I guess he is trying to leave some experience in there, altho Ben Spencer strikes me as the form 9 in the premiership, and if you want harum scarum on the bench, Harry Randall has been looking good . Was also hoping Steward might be surplanted, his lack of pace is a problem defensively and in attack, in my opinion, and the backline looks a touch short on outright pace across the board. Coles too. Hmm.
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Like the look of the starting 15, bench may be light.
Italy team
15 Tommaso Allan (Perpignan, 79 caps)
14 Ange Capuozzo (Stade Toulousain, 16 caps)
13 Juan Ignacio Brex (Benetton Rugby, 30 caps)
12 Tommaso Menoncello (Benetton Rugby, 12 caps)
11 Monty Ioane (Lione 25 caps)
10 Paolo Garbisi (Montpellier, 31 caps)
9 Alessandro Garbisi (Benetton Rugby, 7 caps)
8 Lorenzo Cannone (Benetton Rugby, 16 caps)
7 Michele Lamaro (c) (Benetton Rugby, 33 caps)
6 Sebastian Negri (Benetton Rugby, 52 caps)
5 Federico Ruzza (Benetton Rugby, 49 caps)
4 Niccolò Cannone (Benetton Rugby, 36 caps)
3 Pietro Ceccarelli (Perpignan, 31 caps)
2 Gianmarco Lucchesi (Benetton Rugby, 17 caps)
1 Danilo Fischetti (Zebre Parma, 36 caps)
Replacements
16 Giacomo Nicotera (Benetton Rugby, 18 caps)
17 Mirco Spagnolo (Benetton Rugby, esordiente)
18 Giosuè Zilocchi (Benetton Rugby, 16 caps)
19 Andrea Zambonin (Zebre Parma, 3 caps)
20 Edoardo Iachizzi (Benetton Rugby, 6 caps)
21 Manuel Zuliani (Benetton Rugby, 17 caps)
22 Stephen Varney (Gloucester, 24 caps)
23 Lorenzo Pani (Zebre Parma, 5 caps)
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Damn – lost a long post
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Nothing in the spam bin, Trisk, so you must have done it yourself!
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@Flair – I was going to say that Squidge does a good review of how we can expect Crowley to differ from Sexton
Upside of the whole world seeing Sexton “walking” at the end of the quarter final vs NZ means Crowley has something of a free hand.
Further upside, was he didn’t play at all – had he come on with 15-20 mins to go and result stayed the same…. he’d be forever tarred with “we should have left Jonny on” – well, we did and see where that got us.
6-2 split on the bench was pretty much advertised by having Frawley and Byrne as other 10s. No way was Byrne going to bench – it was going to be Frawley, and that meant 6-2.
However, advantage of 6-2 bench is slightly undone by having Healy as LH. Porter will go 70 mins unless game is lost.
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No Ulster player for only 4th time ever (apparently)
I guess Herring lost out to Kelleher, and Henderson to the Ryan/McCarthy duo as Beirne’s jackal ability cannot be left out.
Recent Ulster form hasn’t been great – but like Munster – players lose out to the Leinster player who “knows” the system or who fit the system better. So, Henshaw replaces Ringrose, even though recent form is no great shakes, but McCLoskey and Aki weren’t seen as complementary.
Munster fans pleased to see Nash in - there were rumours Larmour would be back – but for all the nifty footwork, he’s regarded as a liability under high ball.
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@SBT – I guess Spencer shit on Beaumont’s door step or something. He’s only had 4 England caps since his first call-up in 2019.
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Trisk – yet at the most recent meeting between Ulster and Leinster – at the RDS – it was Ulster who won!
Flair – it was Sexton’s game management as much as any actual playing ability that made him so important.
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@thaum
Results don’t matter while Leinster remain “successful”. Ireland are – more or less – modelled on Leinster, and therefore the core is Leinster with patching where Leinster are less good – so Hansen, Aki, Beirne, and O’Mahony fill gaps
We can big up McCloskey, Hume, Coombes, Hodnett – but if they don’t fit the system (Coombes) or there’s a Leinster player who “knows” the system available – then there’s no need for these players.
Playing Leinster en bloc gives a unity and “cohesion” that other international teams tend to struggle for – except at RWC where they get 6-8 weeks together
Ireland are always in “win now” mode because success in 6N keeps money rolling in and keeps rugby running here – so we only see changes when enforced mainly (Keenan at FB?, Aki for Henshaw). Also when changes are made – results are patchy (Aus in AI 2022), playing a Leinster heavy system with different players – so back we go to tried and trusted and ultimately end up with Sexton walking around….
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<i>Hope Deebs has sharpened his typing claw for the preview.</i>
Oops! Away with my son until Sunday, as he’s out from Vietnam for the first time in about six years!
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This should do:
France’s pack are set to make pieces of Guinness stew out of the Irish gristle, to be mopped up and washed down with aplomb by their wonderful cork-popping backs, Du Pont or no. End of an era for Irish rugby, back to the drawing board.
Italy to spring the surprise of the tournament in week one, with an ambush of a rusty and luddite English side, apparently more concerned with shoehorning more music into the match and walking further from the bus to the ground than um, playing winning rugby. Just kidding. England will prevail, offering neither joy nor stardust. Danny Care gets MOTM.
Wales will Gatball their way to a 12th successive win over Scotland at home to shut Kitson and Co up who can’t be bothered to actually look at Scotland’s side so just come up with the usual ‘dark horses’ tag for a side of haggis and boerewors munchers. Crap match, but at least the Scots won’t be killed by The Hope for more than 80 minutes this year.
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Deebs – you absolute field in human (well, scrum-half) form.
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Thauma, not a fiend of dreams!
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Hell of a photo of Jack Crowley and POM in this article
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sport/rugby/six-nations/peter-omahony-backs-big-player-jack-crowley-to-deliver-in-france/a1703013553.html
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Damn my typo!
Refit, that’s amazing!
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<i>End of an era for Irish rugby</i>
I might seem gloomy here at times – but I think we have players coming through to refresh this team – biggest problem is getting the space to try them out.
Back to back U20 6N (and I know England and France rotate as prep for the U20 RWC) indicates that some things are going well.
SoCoDu (South County Dublin) fee-paying schools stil turn out an inordinate number of good players; Munster have refreshed their academies – which turned out very few successes 2012-2020
I don’t see us back at the wastelands of the 1990s again – even if we’d find it hard to keep up with France and England (expectation that they’ll both sort themselves out and sheer numbers will ultimately count)
GAA – specifically gaelic football – is always there to suck up promising players, and trail over all the place with it’s never ending season…..
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Capuozzo out of the England match. Booooooo!
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Boo indeed. May give England the edge.
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https://twitter.com/Scotlandteam/status/1753055605374234983?s=20
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Ah well.
Anyway, if that Scotland team don’t win in Cardiff they need to go to the nearest sports psychologist, or down to the job centre.
On paper there is no comparison between the sides, the Welsh regions are not is a good place right now and Glasgow are playing some very good rugby whilst Edinburgh are getting to grips with a new coach, but we’ve won more games at the halfway point that we did all last season.
The only way I can see Scotland losing this is in those top two inches – it’s all in the head. We have been notoriously mentally weak in the pro era.
Blair Kinghorn is out for the first two matches, which is a shame as he’s been playing well after his move to Toulouse (Jack Willis FFS – the RFU need to sort themselves out, same for Arundell). Newly appointed Captain Rory Darge isn’t quite fit so Ritiche and Crosbie are the on the flanks of the scrum. Kyle Rowe fills in for the aforementioned Kinghorn and the other Kyle, Steyn, comes in for the injured Darcy Graham. Graham and Kinghorn aren’t expected back before round three, Darge was close for tomorrow.
If Scotland don’t lose the head and ship a dozen stupid penalties, if the lineout doesn’t turn to dung, if we keep 15 players on the pitch, ie all stuff we can control, then it will take a very good performance from Wales to win, in which case I’ll raise a glass to them and say “Well done”, but for once I really hope we don’t turn to mush in Cardiff
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I have yet another gripe. I love the Friday night game, but why schedule an overlap with the U20s?
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Wales: Winnett; Dyer, Watkin, Tompkins, Adams; Costelow, G Davies; Domachowski, Elias, Brown, D Jenkins (capt), Beard, Botham, Reffell, Wainwright.
Replacements: Dee, Mathias, Assiratti, Teddy Williams, Mann, Tomos Williams, I Lloyd, Grady.
Scotland: Rowe, Steyn, Jones, Tuipulotu, Van der Merwe, Russell, White; Schoeman, Turner, Z Fagerson, R Gray, Cummings, Crosbie, Ritchie, M Fagerson.
Replacements: Ashman, Hepburn, Millar-Mills, Skinner, Dempsey, Horne, Healy, Redpath.
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“but for once I really hope we don’t turn to mush in Cardiff “
Pedant alert – Ticht, are you saying that you normally do hope you turn to mush in Cardiff ? Have you got a secret Welsh granny in the cupboard as well?
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SBT, I regretted how I phrased that as soon as I posted it.
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Ticht, I agree about Kinghorn and Willis, they both play supremely well but Arundell, besides being extremely fast, is not very good yet.
I’ve watched most of Racing’s games and Arundell has been consistently poor in defence, and often forgot to pass in attack. He may get there but I don’t think he’s ready for international rugby, even the Hcup seems a step too high ATM.
Jack Willis, on the other hand…what a player! Three lungs and always at the right place.
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Ticht, I agree about Kinghorn and Willis, they both play supremely well but Arundell, besides being extremely fast, is not very good yet.
I’ve watched most of Racing’s games and Arundell has been consistently poor in defence, and often forgot to pass in attack. He may get there but I don’t think he’s ready for international rugby, even the Hcup seems a step too high ATM.
Jack Willis, on the other hand…what a player! Three lungs and always at the right place.
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Worth saying twice…
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Ha, Flair, I’ve just found a draft post that you’ve created. It has a message for Refit, so I’ll leave it!
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I bloody love the Six Nations! There’s a real buzz in Cardiff. Even though Welsh expectations are low, everyone is up for the craic. I hold out very little hope for England (a) winning more than one game and (b) playing anything resembling rugby. But it’ll be great to see if anyone can stop Ireland or France. Think tonight will be looked back upon as the tournament decider come the end of the competition, but you never know.
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Read your message Flair.
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New post is here.
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