You might think that Cardiff are completely out of the Champions Cup, but you’d be wrong! And you’d probably get very rich betting on them to go through. They just need a bonus-point victory over Racing 92 in Paris and for Ulster to not get more than one point.
Connacht, languishing at the bottom of their pool on one point, also have a theoretical chance.
All the permutations have been not very clearly worked out by BBC Sport.
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates free-to-view. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 19th January
| Connacht v Bristol | 20:00 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Glasgow v Toulon | 20:00 | TNT Sports 1 |
| Scarlets v Edinburgh | 20:00 | S4C / iPlayer |
| Gloucester v Castres | 20:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
Saturday 20th January
| Bulls v Bordeaux | 13:00 | TNT Sports Extra |
| Harlequins v Ulster | 13:00 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Black Lion v Clermont | 13:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Racing 92 v Cardiff | 15:15 | S4C / TNT Sports 2 |
| Leicester v Leinster | 15:15 | TNT Sports 1 |
| Oyonnax v Cheetahs | 15:15 | epcrugby.com |
| Treviso v Montpellier | 15:15 | epcrugby.com |
| Munster v Northampton | 17:30 | RTÉ2 / TNT Sports 1 |
| Stade Français v Stormers | 17:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Saracens v Lyon | 20:00 | TNT Sports 1 |
Sunday 21st January
| Sale v La Rochelle | 13:00 | ITV1 / STV / TNT Sports 2 |
| Perpignan v Newcastle | 13:00 | Viaplay Sports 2 |
| Lions v Ospreys | 13:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v Bath | 15:15 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Bayonne v Exeter | 17:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Dragons v Sharks | 17:30 | Viaplay Sports 2 |
Ovally Balls 
‘Mon Ra Weedge!!!!’
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Looks a wee bit breezy in Galway. Kicking’s gonna be ‘fun’ tonight.
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Glad I’m not in Scotstoun tonight, weather is absolutely boggin’ here.
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It’s been a lovely, calm, sunny day here, if a little on the chilly side!
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First blood to Connacht!
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Bugger. Nice try Connacht. Hanrahan’s conversion moved in about 4 different directions, before missing the posts.
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Try Glasgow!!!! Brilliant run from McKay! From his own half!
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Noooo! Going to chalk it off for blocking! Boooo!
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Red card for Bristol 4, Josh Caulfield. He stamped on Bealham’s head, in a ruck. It looked fairly accidental, but extremely careless.
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BB – that’s a shame!
Refit – yes, I can’t believe he did it on purpose, but it was nasty.
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From the BBC link:
Hmm, this is suddenly looking more likely. Sorry, Refit!
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Another try Glasgow! Hope this one sticks, lovely run from Jones, nice pass to Rowe and in. Hopefully the TMO won’t look for a reason to chalk it off.
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Especially as Sinckler has now also been binned (but only a yellow)!
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Bristol down to 13 – Sinckler with a yellow (I missed what for). Connacht get a 2nd.
12-0 20mins
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Huwipolotu strike again! Jones in for Glasgow try number two!
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Hanrahan limping off, but I’m not sure that Carty coming on is a downgrade.
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Refit – I didn’t see it either as I was feeding the dog, so I asked the mister and he wasn’t entirely sure either, just ‘something leading up to the try’. Perhaps an off-side too many, he thought.
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Leo Varadkar is at the match, apparently because he’s just approved funding for a new stadium.
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Nice penalty kick from Bristol to put them on the board!
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3rd try to Connacht, off the back of a maul. Probably luck they scored – I reckon Bristol would have got a yellow for any number of infringements at the maul.
17-3
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Some lovely play by Bristol, but stopped just short of the line and the ball turned over.
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12-0 at half time. Win and we’re through. Embra also leading, but down to 14 I think at half time.
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And it’s 17-3 at HT, with Connacht on three tries.
The mister inexplicably wants to watch … er, something else … so please keep me updated!
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Bugger. Toulon score. We had plenty of chances to clear the ball too.
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Fucking hell, how did the Connacht winger score that?
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He didn’t. Booooooooooooooo! Judged to have just brushed the line, with a toe.
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3rd try for Glasgow!
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Last pass was a miss pass off his left hand by Johnny (Erling Mauland) Matthews!
Huw Jones in for his second and Glasgow’s 4th and bonus point!
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Ravuvu looks to have scored a wonderful try, kicking on a chip, gathering and getting though the Connacht defenders. But it’s spotted that he knocked on just before grounding – good defence by the last tackler.
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Bugger x2. Another Toulon try. But they are looking at it. Chalked off for obstruction. Scored by Cornell du Preez, who is apparently only 32, thought he’s been around for longer than that.
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Another try on 83 minutes for Glasgow!
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Edinburgh winning but seem to be making heavy weather of it. Gilchrist shown red after two yellow, and McDuhan also shown yellow, Scarlets get a penalty try after it. Embra win 19-31.
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“Edinburgh winning but seem to be making heavy weather of it”
Not really BB, it was 5 – 31 until the last minutes when the game descended into farce. Scarlets weren’t even close for any part of the game
I have to say though, the ref seemed to favour one side, and that side was Edinburgh.
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For those of a sentimental bent, Jonathan Davies passed into row fourteen of the stand, just for old time’s sakes.
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It will be with a great sense of relief, and possibly euphoria, that you are reading that Jaco Peyper has hung up his boots, packed away his whistle and scurried off into the sunset. Loose forwards the world over are mourning the loss of the unreffed ruck and maul.
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I quite liked Peyper when he first appeared reffing international matches. Running around with his little grin, he seemed to be fairly even-handed and sympathetic to the players.
Then he went a bit…weird.
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‘MON Ulster!!!!
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Oops Ulster.
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Jesus fucking christ.
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Should be a penalty try, that!
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Hero-to-zero. Nick David scores a try then gets a yellow.
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Neither team quite clicking at the moment
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TRY McCann!
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Ulster very nearly managed to butcher a clear chance there from Balacoun (?) 7-7
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SLMC – indeed! (It’s Baloucoune, and Lowry the butcher).
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Ulster breaks look very dangerous
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Actually, we’ve butchered about 4 tries by now.
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Quins getting the key ref decisions close to the line keeping Ulster out miraculously
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Make that 5 now.
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And we let another one in.
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