You might think that Cardiff are completely out of the Champions Cup, but you’d be wrong! And you’d probably get very rich betting on them to go through. They just need a bonus-point victory over Racing 92 in Paris and for Ulster to not get more than one point.
Connacht, languishing at the bottom of their pool on one point, also have a theoretical chance.
All the permutations have been not very clearly worked out by BBC Sport.
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates free-to-view. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 19th January
| Connacht v Bristol | 20:00 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Glasgow v Toulon | 20:00 | TNT Sports 1 |
| Scarlets v Edinburgh | 20:00 | S4C / iPlayer |
| Gloucester v Castres | 20:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
Saturday 20th January
| Bulls v Bordeaux | 13:00 | TNT Sports Extra |
| Harlequins v Ulster | 13:00 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Black Lion v Clermont | 13:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Racing 92 v Cardiff | 15:15 | S4C / TNT Sports 2 |
| Leicester v Leinster | 15:15 | TNT Sports 1 |
| Oyonnax v Cheetahs | 15:15 | epcrugby.com |
| Treviso v Montpellier | 15:15 | epcrugby.com |
| Munster v Northampton | 17:30 | RTÉ2 / TNT Sports 1 |
| Stade Français v Stormers | 17:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Saracens v Lyon | 20:00 | TNT Sports 1 |
Sunday 21st January
| Sale v La Rochelle | 13:00 | ITV1 / STV / TNT Sports 2 |
| Perpignan v Newcastle | 13:00 | Viaplay Sports 2 |
| Lions v Ospreys | 13:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v Bath | 15:15 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Bayonne v Exeter | 17:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Dragons v Sharks | 17:30 | Viaplay Sports 2 |
Ovally Balls 
The ref’s not Adamson is it?
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Oof! And Northampton win by 3 points. Munster still go through, though, I think.
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And Stade get the penalty from the scrum! Lineout 5m out. Battering away. Stormers tackle them back 15 metres and then get the penalty! Time up and the win for the Stormers!
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Hell of a comeback by Saints. Munster will be kicking themselves for letting that slip away at the end.
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That was pretty frenetic in the last 10 to 15. Stormers through to last 16 though.
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It can’t have helped that the storm hit in the second half with the rain being lashed in Munster’s faces. But yes, Northampton are looking the business this year.
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Saracens doing better against Lyon, than they did last week. They’ve scored a try!
The game looks like it’s being played by 30 Nick Tompkins – utter chaos on the pitch. It’s quite fun.
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Ronnie O’Sullivan has just produced four centuries out of six frames to win the semi-final 6-1. Poor Ding hardly saw the table.
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Bloody hell. Some smart sleight of hand by Sarancens and Itoje scores their second try. Then, after the restart, Faz is charged down TWICE in the space of 10 seconds and Lyon score their 3rd.
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Faz just got charged down, kicking for the corner inside the 22 (well, he just didn’t get enough height on it and the Lyon 11 jumped & blocked it).
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As I was typing that, he got charged down for a 4th time, albeit with pen advantage.
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Saracens win 39-24. A much more typical performance from them in the second half and they make it through to the next round.
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Thanks for watching that so I didn’t have to, Refit.
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Sale vs LAR is a scrappy old match. Pretty sure someone’s gonna get lamped at some point – there’s that much niggle.
LAR go into half-time leading 0-16.
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Jack Nowell has just come on for LAR. The way they switched camera views, it made it look like he’d replaced Botia, at 7.
Sale have twice come close in the last few mins, but for a foot in touch both times. LAR have increased their lead. 0-30 52mins.
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Sale have been unable to take advantage of a 2-man advantage for 10 mins (two yellows), except for a single try. They’ve also conceded an intercept.
12-37 on 76mins, with play stopped for a nasty injury to one of the LAR props (oxygen bottle and stretcher out for this one).
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Same managed a couple of tries in the last 5 mins and closed the gap a bit. Final score 24-37.
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Ospreys with a great comeback win at Ellis Park. From 28-17 down they scored a bunch of late tries to run out 38-28 winners. Lions discipline was appalling, but they’ve should’ve put the game away before the hour mark.
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Toulouse-Bath is off to a flyer! Two early tries for Toulouse, but Bath have hit back. 12-7 inside 15 minutes!
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Bath Bounce Back! Pick and go, pick and go and eventually over! Conversion missed, so 12-12 after 24 minutes, but Bath concede a penalty from the restart. Toulouse kick to the 5m but cock up the lineout. Bath clear but Toulouse still have an attacking lineout. Feed is skew and Bath have the scrum. Sloppy by Toulouse when they could’ve knocked over a penalty from in front.
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Toulouse pull the plug on the Bath scrum and again kick the penalty to the corner. The maul kicks into gear, Bath collapse it and penalty try and yellow card!
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Bath back! Battering through! Lovely move off the top.
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Fuck me. Ugo and the florid dipshit from last week on commentary for the Exeter match. I’ve almost turned it off, they’re soooo bad. The main guy wants to be Bill McClaren so badly. He keeps trying little quips, that are just terrible.
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Jamie Lyall? Apparently had studied to be a vet. Made the wrong career choice.
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Borderboy – mind you, imagine taking your sick animal to see him, and he keeps making ‘funny’ quips while treating them.
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There’s been a lot of head contact in tackles this weekend. I think they need to start giving reds again (they’ve mostly been yellows), get the player behaviour back under control.
Speaking of which, Joe Hawkins gets a red for Exeter, with 3mins left, for a tackle even Faz would deem too upright.
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Then they got stuffed in the last 10 minutes.
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Watched the Toulouse / Bath game – that was fun. New, slim-line Dupont looking fast for 7s.
Exeter faced a choice at the oranges: win and play La Rochelle or lose and play BAth
They must have got confused.
I don’t think they’ll beat either on today’s showings.
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Slade, they did try to win though in he 2nd half, even scored to tries in the process. Then Bayonne woke up again and stuffed them.
French journalist at the end asks Baxter ” so Bath it is then?” Baxter nods. Then: “another try for you and it’d’ve been LaR”. Baxter remained silent with a wry smile.
Whatever the narrative in Sale, I dont think it’s fair some teams knew what they had to do to achirvevthis or that.
Anyway the whole format sucks, so many rematches in March, no home and away games, teams qualifying with only one victory, not even mentionning the Saffers participation. Give me back the old HCup!
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Thaum, another post in the spam? What am I doing wrong?
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Flair – rescued your post. Not sure what’s going wrong for you. I’ve sent you an invite to be a ‘team member’, which might help, if you accept(?).
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Flair/Refit – yes, that will help! Members don’t get put in the spam bin.
And, Flair, I also hate this format.
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And no idea why your posts have been put in the spam bin. Usually it’s if they are very short, or contain a lot of links.
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I’ve had periods where my posts have gone to the bin, but not for a while now.
I’m not wholly against this current format, across the games this weekend we had teams with lots to play for right up to the final whistle. In the old competition we’d see teams field a second string lineup after round two, the final overall league positions were changing game by game from Friday to Sunday evening.
In the challenge cup I was left working out who Edinburgh would face and where it would be played (at home to Bayonne) after the very last game across the two competitions.
It’s not a perfect format by a long way, but in some ways it’s much better than the old one
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For clarification, this sentence should read
In the old competition we’d see teams field a second string lineup after round two, whereas under the current format the final overall league positions were changing game by game from Friday to Sunday evening over the last weekend of the first stage.
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The repeat fixtures are not a great feature, there are five of them, I wonder if there is a way to avoid this whilst maintaining the jeopardy of the final weekend of the first stage?
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Munster will be kicking themselves
Munster’s game plan is designed around keeping the ball in hand and wearing down the opposition by making their big lumps run from ruck to ruck .
To do that and retain the ball Munster need big heavy ball carriers – Synman, Kleyn, Edogbo are all out injured.
Ahern was carried off – Coombes moved from 8 to lock and at 8 we had Gleeson – of whom someone said – he had his age on the back of his jersey.
Coombes and Beirne did 80. Loughman and Scannell went off around 60, and immediately the decline sets in as their replacements are smaller and give less impact. Northampton brought on three big lumps around 50-60… including switching winger for a hooker (made sense wingers arten’t going to see
With all the injuries there’s no big lads to come on as subs – bench had no 2nd row, Kendellen is similar to Hodnett.
You might say why not kick – but in that storm, kicking into the wind was almost impossible plus there’s no real kicking threat in the back line – Crowley excepted (Healy’s gone). Plus with Ahern off and O’Mahony subbed at 60, the lineout becomes a liability
Now, Munster’s game can work as we saw vs Toulon – and last season in URC in dry weather. And the hope is that as season goes on – the weather will start to suit better (Bayonne, Connacht, and this game all very wet and windy) – maybe Snyman comes back…
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So Farrell ‘s officially going to Racing. Doubt Racing’s fans will be pleased. I wouldn’t.
As the French saying goes, you can’t teach an old monkey new tricks. Kicking away good possession, specially after a turn over is a major crime in French rugby, and that’s what I’ve seen Farrell do again and again. That, and seriously lacking pace. Maybe I’ll eat my words when Sarries meet Bordeaux again in March, but I doubt it. Wrong investment.
Unlike Jack Willis who was stupendously effective with Toulouse vs Bath (great team, I fancy Bath to get at least to the SF). Willis not playing for England is a shame.
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Thaum, another post in the spam? What am I doing wrong?
The site has been taken over by Nigel Farage. Doesn’t want posts coming over the Channel. Best use a VPN to post. Or something.
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And another one last night, this time mostly about Farrell going to Racing. Grrrr..
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The repeat fixtures are not a great feature
Munster probably aren’t too unhappy to go to Franklins Gardens – when the alternatives inclued the Bulls – but it’s unfortunate to see 5 of 8 to be repeats.
When you rank teams 1-16, it’s a chance – if it were top 8 home in one bucket and bottom 8 away in the other – you could build in no repeats or at least no repeat at same venue.
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Test.
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Grrr.
Comment in the spam again. Merde alors!
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And as my colonial posts sail through, I’m left to wonder if the fundamentals of European unity have finally frayed beyond repair. First they allowed the Boks back, but I (you lot) did not complain because I thought they were one-dimensional; then they let the Stormers, Bulls and Sharks back, but I did not object, because they mostly lost to Kiwi sides, then they let the Lions and Cheetahs in and it was too late to squeal as Asenati Nthalabakanye’s 150kg frame squashed the fuck out of me. You were warned.
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Deebs, it’s Emmanuel Meafou who is going to terrorise opposing teams this year. He’s looked immense (literally and in how he plays) for Toulouse recently. He was described by one of the commentators in their game against Bath as being the same size as Will Skelton, but with pace and good hands – 2.03m and 145 kilos on the hoof, as Bill McLaren would have said. He’s just qualified to play for France. Once Danty gets fit again they are going to have a bit of go-forward in the ball carrying stakes. Also, when Paul Willemse is fit again their pack is going weigh a bit
Since Blair Kinghorn moved I’ve been handed the excuse to watch Stade Toulousain again – they are a joy to watch, Sag would hate them.
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I like the Pastor Niemöller reference
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Ticht – I remember that bit in the commentary!
The best teams in the tournament so far have been Toulouse, La Rochelle and Bordeaux, imo. French teams just laying waste to the rest of us.
Maybe that is why the spambot doesn’t like Flair at the mo.
Speaking of which: Flair – I still don’t know why it’s going for you. You’ve accepted the invitation, which I thought would make you immune; has it happened since then, or did you accept after the latest spimbanning?
The idiot thing is supposed to learn, but it certainly doesn’t learn quickly. It’s probably best not to post one-word things such as ‘Test’, because it thinks that’s suspicious. You can explain more fully why you’re testing. ;-)
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I wonder what Niemöller would make of the situation in Gaza.
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Both Meafou and Jelonch out of the 6N.
Sag has some time to breathe.
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