It’s here! The return that nobody expected (or wanted…)
Predict-A-Bear is back, along with his partner in crime, Shug (The Dug). Together, they will cast a beady eye over this week’s Six Nations games and decide the (probable) winner. All 3 games could be tight, and then again, all 3 games could be one-sided batterings.
As you will see, they have gone hi-tech for these predictions.
First up, Italy vs Scotland.
Italy have improved, and even though France were awful, they still could/should have beaten them. They ran England close, not that that’s saying much these days.
They didn’t run Ireland close, but then nobody will this year.
Unlike in previous years, they don’t seem to run out of steam in the last quarter: the pack is improving, and the backs can and probably will try to run the ball from everywhere.
Scotland are, apparently, the second-best team in the tournament. We were favourites to beat Wales (and we did! Just). We should have beaten France but fell asleep for parts of the second half, as did the TMO at the end. We were favourites to beat England, but it’s England….
We have a strong team and squad now, apart from a couple of places, mainly in the front row. Zander seems to have to play most of the 80 and thankfully has stopped giving away quite so many penalties. Famous last words, I know. We’ve gone for a 6-2 split on the bench.
Still uncomfortable with Scotland being favourites for anything, but that’s just part of our psyche.
Predict-A-Bear says:
Next, England vs Ireland.
Hmmm. Will we see the England of the first 20 minutes against Scotland, or the England of the following 60? They’ve had longer to work on their Rush Defence, but have they also worked on passing and offloading? If Mitchell and Smith (M) come in, that may well speed up their attack, plus it would be good to see Feyi-Waboso start. Still, we can always look forward to Ben Earl gurning away any time Ireland drop the ball. He should perhaps concentrate more on coping with the Irish back row.
Ireland have a system. They have players that fit into the system. They have a coach who makes sure everybody knows what they are doing within that system. A system doesn’t work as well if you don’t have bloody good players to work it. Ireland have lots of good players, with a fair smattering of world class players. And a deep squad. Andy Farrell is canny enough not to let any possible emotions about Ireland winning the championship a game early get into the player’s heads. So, no weaknesses then? Not many. Maybe the scrum? Andrew Porter may not get away with boring in against England. Clutching at straws there….
Predict-A-Bear says:
And so to Wales vs France on Sunday.
Which Wales will turn up? The Wales of the first half against Scotland, most of the game against Ireland and parts of the game against England? Or the Wales that played out of their skin for 20 minutes in the second half against Scotland? Who knows? Not sure Gatland does. This is definitely a rebuilding job and there looks to be some future stars in Winnett, Wainwright and Reffell.
Which France will turn up? Hopefully (for non-Welsh fans), NOT the one we’ve seen so far this tournament. It can’t just be down to Dupont. Yes, they’ve had injuries and poor discipline which means they’ve been without important players in each game. Perhaps the squad depth isn’t what we thought it was?
Predict-A-Bear is having serious thoughts about this one, but in the end he says:
BorderBoy accepts no liability for any upset these predictions may cause – it wisnae him!.
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 8th March
| Italy v Scotland U20s | 19:15 | iPlayer |
| England v Ireland U20s | 19:15 | RTÉ2 / iPlayer |
Saturday 9th March
| La Rochelle v Stade français | 14:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
| Italy v Scotland | 14:15 | ITV1 / STV |
| Montpellier v Bordeaux Begles | 16:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
| England v Ireland | 16:45 | ITV1 / RTÉ2 / STV |
| Perpignan v Toulouse | 20:00 | Viaplay Sports 1 |
Sunday 10th March
| Wales v France | 15:00 | BBC1 / S4C / RTÉ2 |
| Racing 92 v Toulon | 20:00 | Viaplay online |
Ovally Balls 
I can exclusively reveal that the bear is dancing around the kitchen as I type…..
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*Boos bear*
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Apart from being disappointed in Scotland yesterday (although I’m used to that), this has to have been one of the best Six Nations weekend in a long time.
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Although they are struggling a bit, I do admire the way the Welsh play at the moment………….
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Penaud is just such a terrific player
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Le Garrec confirmed he is a very good player (but he would have looked an absolute arse if that reverse pass had come to grief (it nearly did)
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@Slade – Anyone just watching the tries might think it was all French power that got them the win, but to my mind it was how quickly they kept getting back into our 22 in the second half with some exciting running and there was a lot of Penaud in that. We didn’t help ourselves with some mistakes and I don’t think Gats should have changed the halfbacks, but it was a very good last half-hour from France.
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That was a perfect ending of a great 6N week-end ( sorry Cmw).
Wales were in the game until the 60th minute when France’s superior bench (and possibly fitness) made the difference. One could see the defensive levee couldn’t hold much longer vs the bigger boys, and then Wales couldn’t break the line they broke so easily before.
Some good additions to this French team that most of us were calling for for some time now. Depoortère, Barré, Meafou, Colombe, but mostly Le Garrec had a big impact.
Next week’s game vs a revitalised England should be a cracker.
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CMW – yes, the replacement scrum-half was particularly awful, and Williams had been doing fine.
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After a really good start to the second half it felt a bit like we would have been better served by conceding early rather than having that heroic and fortuitous ten minutes of defending when we only ended up conceding three points. I know managing to do that sometimes inspires teams to then go on and win, but in this case it was more like we spent everything we had and weren’t really able to show anything more at all afterwards. Conceding a quick try and getting back down the other end to carry on with the ‘basketball’ would have been more fun though I’m sure the difference in strength from the bench would have told in the end.
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France poaching Ireland, what next?
There will be a Munster man with France next week. Antoine Frish’s been called by Galthié to join the 34 players squad. Doubt he’ll get a cap, bar injury it will be Moefana and/or Depoortère but that’d be fun.
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CMW – at that time, I was thinking that it was better to concede a try than get what seemed like an inevitable yellow card, which surprisingly didn’t come.
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Why did Marcus Smith attempt a drop goal at the end of the game vs Ireland, with a penalty advantage in front of the posts, and the very real possibility of scoring a try that would’ve brought a bonus point that could prove decisive?
That was a great performance by England but if I was Borthwick I’d spank the little bugger.
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Good question, Flair – it seems to have been overlooked in the euphoria of the win. Not quite as bad as Matt Dunning’s superb dropgoal that knocked the Waratah’s out of a Super Rugby semifinal, but could it come back to haunt England if Scotland put the wobbling Irish to the sword this weekend?
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There was nothing else on when the ball came to him, but being in the pocket potentially was creating space for England to have another go at the line through the big lads. So really it was Care’s decision to spin it out to him that could be criticised. But personally, I’m all for securing the win and the bonus point be damned – England will lose in France anyway.
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He’s hoping to get selected in the future and it’s what George Ford would have done?
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Well, disappointing day on Saturday – nearly sneaked away with it, but it would have been “daylight robbery”.
Earlier eldest’s U18 team played in Munster quarterfinal but lost out 26-5 to a handy Waterpark team. Ultimately, small panel killed them – 18 active players is too few at this level. No leeway to pull players who aren’t performing and the toll tells in terms of energy expended against a team who didn’t demonstrate much drop off as subs came on.
Quite enjoyed the Wales – France match. Benches told – or at least Wales stopped getting forward once the subs appeared. Le Garrec was a bundle of energy… much more of this and we’ll be saying Antoine who?
And talking of Antoine who – Munster fans are incandescent over the Frisch call up. He was targeted in 2022 as IQ – and although he went on the Emerging Ireland tour hasn’t been involved. Knock on – is that he’ll be NIQ as is Nankivell so one will have to go
This is the third Munster player to get picked by another nation – first, Healy went to Scotland, then Kleyn to SA (which meant we couldn’t keep Snyman) … now Frisch will probably leave. General feeling is good luck to him - it’s a short career and can’t be hanging around hoping….
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Players going abroad and being succesful to the point where they get picked by the country they’re from? Not much to dislike there, I guess two out of three and all that…
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A bit weird that, how can the Munster fans be incandescent about Frish and at the same time wishing him good luck?
The man is born in France (french father, english mother), he’s 27 and has played all his rugby in France bar one year in Bristol and two years in Munster. Galthié previously offered him to tour in Japan in 2022 but he was then injured. Storm in a tea cup as both Ireland and France have better centres than Frish.
Besides, don’t you need a 5 year residency these days to play for a foreign country?
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@Flair – Irish granny apparently.
Turns out I was wrong about Feyi Waboso’s qualification for England. BBC enlightens us with the notable sentence:
“His father is half Nigerian and half English, while his paternal grandmother is from Gloucester.”
Which made me giggle slightly.
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Irish granny trumps 5 year residency rule and almost kills the blog. Knew it, wasn’t World rugby known as Dublin based IRB before?
Hope next week-end bring as much drama as the last one.
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Jason Jenkins leaving Leinster at the end of the season for the Sharks. Thought the lad had more ambition than wanting to play for the chequebook chokers.
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Evening all. Visiting Uk again for a couple of weeks, and availing myself of the swimming pool at Surrey Sports Park a few mornings a week. As I head home at around 8.45 am, tend to run into Quins squad heading in for breakfast. Same must apply to rugby players as coppers as you get older. Thought yesterday it must be the colts training squad all supersized and didn’t bother looking too closely, until the huge bearded fellow in his early twenties turned into Irne Herbst. Good grief, he looks well old on telly. Today there was a spotty looking youth at the counter who looked like he had been standing in a bucket of Baby Bio for too long, and he turned round and smiled. Andre Esterhuizen. Might be large, but still looks like he should be wearing short trousers.
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Gah!
Fey-Weboso out of next game………………………
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Yes indeed, that is very unfortunate. Now instead of the new lad carving up France and creating space for other players, we are going to get Elliot Daly kicking the ball away with a 3 on one outside him, or Freddy “Turns Like the Titanic” Steward facing off against young flier BB or the electric eel Damien Penaud. False dawns, France by 20.
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SBT – Herbst is actually 30 already so way old, innit (as the youth have probably never said).
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North announces retirement from Test rugby – https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/68552219
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Understandable, his game’s gone south recently.
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Rassie saying that he’ll punt on another World Cup over consistency in results in between. Don’t agree with that. Obviously I’d love the Boks to win again in 2027, but I also want us to win trophies and series before then too. This year the two biggies are Ireland and New Zealand both playing two Tests in SA – massive!
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I’d be happy if the Boks show poor results in between and screw up in the world cup, might as well aim for total consistency.
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No Ulstermen. Scotland by 45.
Ireland Team & Replacements (v Scotland, Guinness Men’s Six Nations, Saturday, March 16, 4.45pm)
15. Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster)(39)
14. Calvin Nash (Young Munster/Munster)(5)
13. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster)(71)
12. Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht)(55)
11. James Lowe (Leinster)(30)
10. Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster)(13)
9. Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster)(34)
1. Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster)(63)
2. Dan Sheehan (Lansdowne/Leinster)(25)
3. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster)(75)
4. Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster)(9)
5. Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster)(49)
6. Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)(captain)(104)
7. Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster)(61)
8. Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster)(40)
Replacements:
16. Rónan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster)(30)
17. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)(128)
18. Finlay Bealham (Buccaneers/Connacht)(39)
19. Ryan Baird (Dublin University/Leinster)(19)
20. Jack Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster)(45)
21. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)(115)
22. Harry Byrne (UCD/Leinster)(3)
23. Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster)(57)
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Thing is, SBT, the Boks are notoriously inconsistent. I’d rather we were totally consistent the other way and replaced the McCaw-Carter ABs as the benchmark for consistent excellence. Never really been able to do that year in and out, so it’d be a lovely change, I think we can all agree.
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I thought we’d managed consistent excellence, but no: out in the QFs again.
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Wales have been the most inconsistent team in the 6N over the last 20 years or so, probably by some margin. We’re giving consistency a go now and I can promise you it’s not anything like as much fun.
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Need a win (and bonus points/points difference to go the right way) this weekend to keep our run of 1st and 5th places going, would be sad to see it broken. Last finished anywhere else in 2018 (2nd) though we were 5th the year before.
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Wales do manage to take inconsistency from one season to the next to a new level. Wooden spoon this year and GS next year? The romantic in me (yes, us Neanderthals down here can muster a bit of that from time to time) wants Italy to win this weekend after a better than expected 6N so far, but if Wales play for 80 like they did for 60 against France, it’s unlikely.
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Keeping an eye on the Crusaders-Canes match in Christchurch (I’m assuming). At halftime the Canes are 7-0 up. If the Crusaders lose, it’ll be four losses on the bounce for them, which I’m not sure has ever happened to them in Super Rugby. I don’t know if they lost a bunch of stars in the offseason, but if the drop in performance is because Razor is now the ABs coach, then the rugby world has a lot to be worried about!
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Predictions for the weekend!
Italy to sneak past Wales by a score or less in a highly entertaining match, potentially with a bonus point for four tries? That would lift them to 12 points and into the top half of the standings – nothing less than deserved.
Ireland will win going away in the end and leave Scotland dreaming about ‘their year’ once more. I think Ireland will respond to last weekend’s loss much they like they did on the opening weekend against France. Could get ugly – at least a double digit win (well, not more than a double digit win!).
I think France will outmuscle England and Marcus Smith will turn villain from hero with a yellow card for a petulant outburst after being steamrollered by a massive French unit (I’m getting into the Graun spirit here) and ultimately, England will be left wondering. The armchair warriors will get the pitchforks out for Borthwick again..
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7-7 and Crusaders turning the screw. Looks like the early season blip is over, Robertson isn’t the second coming and the All Blacks will be shit this year.
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Owen Franks sinbinned for a cheap shot at the death (who’d have thought?) and the Canes win 14-10! Crusaders rubbish without Razor, ABs to be feared etc etc.
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Any U20 games on tonight?
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Deebee – yes, they are all tonight. It’s possible I might be able to get a post up before the first one kicks off at 19:00!
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Thanks Thauma, have a feeling the wee beasties from Italy will mangle their Welsh counterparts. Probably the same for Ireland, no idea about France-England.
I’m loving the depth that Italy are developing in the juniors. Bodes well!
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Deebs, if France U 20s don’t win tonight, they’ll have no excuse. For the first time, they’ll have close to their best team, as there’re no T14 games. Including Tuilagi, who’s already played with the senior team. And a great flanker at #7 also a very very good # 8 who’s had already several games with Toulouse.
Other games at 8pm, France’s at 9pm.
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La composition des Bleuets
15. Ferté ; 14. Attissogbe, 13. Darricarrère, 12. Gourgues, 11. Bollengier ; 10. Reus, 9. Carbonneau (cap.) ; 7. Quere Karaba, 8. Gazzotti, 6. Castro-Ferreira ; 5. Tuilagi, 4. Descube ; 3. Affane, 2. Massa, 1. Julien.
Remplaçants : 16. Couly, 17. Aouad, 18. Duchène, 19. Huchet, 20. Tolofua, 21. Malaterre, 22. Souverbie, 23. Biasotto.
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In the big boys competition, I kept it simple and I went for Italy by 10, Ireland by 10 and France by 10.
Ready to be wrong 66% of the time, providing I am right about France.
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New post took a lot longer than expected because I had to do maths (which I’ve probably fucked up, and someone can point that out). It’s fairly imminent.
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All right, here at last.
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