Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Irish 7z have been gradually improving (mens and womens). Men were 2nd overall and women 7th
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See Ireland have now given themselves an easy quarter final in the Mens 7z. I mean, it’s only Fiji…
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Boks just beat the Kiwis in the QF! We’re into the medal rounds! 14-7 with all the points scored in the first half. Blitzboks with a helluva scrambling defensive effort, ably assisted by some curiously wayward Kiwi handling. We’ll be playing the winners of the next match – France v Argentina.
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French pressure eventually (in 7s terms) tells and they lead 7-0. Argentina lose it from the restart and France power over for another! 14-0 with a minute of the 1st half to go. Argentina cock up the kick off and France have possession inside the 22, and they’re over again! 19-0 with the dive in the corner! 21-0 with the conversion! Surely game over.
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Don’t think I’ve seen Dupont in action yet?
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Argentina open their account with a good, structured try and it’s 21-7 with 5 to go.
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Argentina on the attack. 5m scrum. A couple of penalties and they really should’ve scored, but a yellow for France and they can go again! God! Finally! Must’ve butchered half a dozen overlaps but go over and it’s 21-14 with 2.25 to go!
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France still a man down but they’re controlling possession beautifully. And there’s Dupont! A penalty almost on full time and he looks back at his line, taps, spins, accelerates and goes over untouched! Brilliant!
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Ireland Fiji up next. Good luck Ireland! You’re gonna need it.
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Ireland kick off. Fiji score.
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Ireland score too!
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Ireland take the lead! Shock on the cards?
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Might be! Ireland score again!
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Fiji in again.
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Fiji score straight from kick off!
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Fiji squeak it 19-15! Lucky in the end.
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Aussies beating USA! at half time. Don’t like the Aussie kit – far too yellow.
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Don’t like the Aussie kit – far too yellow.
You are Robert Muldoon and I claim my five quid.
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The NZ politician
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Muldoon
or the Jurassic Park game Warden?
https://jurassicpark.fandom.com/wiki/Robert_Muldoon
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Kiwi PM, although he quite possibly was around in the Jurassic era too. For non-cricketing folk, a one day game in 1981 (I think) saw the Kiwis needing 6 off the last ball to tie the match, Greg Chappell instructed younger brother Trevor to bowl underarm to ensure the Kiwis couldn’t hit a six. Caused something of a furore with Muldoon the PM stating (amongst other things) that “it was an act of true cowardice and I consider it appropriate that the Australian team were wearing yellow”.
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Hello?
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I may have lost a comment
No biggie
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Was it Muldoon who said something along the lines of, “The people emigrating from New Zealand to Australia are increasing the average IQ of both countries” ?
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Ah I found it, it was the Muldoon thing, I got lost in a flurry of word press log in tabs
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In the old days that would be a steal
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Just in case, checked the spam bin, and it’s empty.
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Dupont doing Dupont things stopped Fiji doing Fiji things and wins the 7z gold for France!
Meanwhile, Brave Scots are holding out Uruguay so far.
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Thauma, are you sure the spam bin is empty? Sent you a mail a couple of days ago.
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BB, scores please, no coverage down here.
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Uruguay 0 Scotland 7. Just over 20 minutes gone, we’re on the attack and Uruguay have just had a yellow. And Crosbie is in for our second.
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McDuhan in for the record breaking try! 28 tries for Scotland! Healy misses the conversion. We lead 19-0
And Uruguay are over for a try!
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Uruguay in for their second just before half time! Just a bit lax from Scotland. 14-19.
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That’s half time. Cagey first 20 minutes, Scotland then on top for the next 15 and scoredf 3 tries, Uruguay back in it for the last 5.
Uruguay obviously anxious to make up for last week’s thrashing, Scotland maybe eyeing the flights home? We’ll see.
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Uruguay on top in this second half, on the attack now. And they’ve scored! 19 all with the conversion to come!
Should have known we couldn’t put 4 good performances together…
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Scotland maul themselves back into the lead!
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Schoooooooooooo
We’ve suddenly up the pace and got two tries in quick succession. 19-31 now.
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Kyle Steyn finishes things off in style! But it’s being reviewed. Nope, no try, chalked off for obstruction, which looked a bit harsh.
That’s time. Our toughest game of the tour, Uruguay more like they’ve been at World Cups, Scotland looking like a tired team at the end of a tour. Still, that’s four wins out of four. Not often we can say that.
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Or here, apparently. Plucky Scotland clung on to beat Uruguay 31-19.
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Perhaps I should have refreshed the page before commenting! Thanks for the updates, BB!
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Congrats on the Blitzboks Bronze medal!
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Sorry, Deebs – didn’t see it! Have emailed you back from another address.
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Right, a new post up shortly!
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And here it is.
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