Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
So, from memory (can’t be bothered to read the stuff above), I’m rooting for Leinster to stuff Connacht to give the Lions a better shot at the top 8, but rooting for Connacht to stuff Leinster to give the Bulls a hand up at the top of the log? Shitty low-scoring draw it is then! Unless etc etc.
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Just back from dinner. (Dinner +++.) See Leinster have stuffed Connacht.
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Would be interested on your take on this, Deebee. Could even be another good ATL, although I can see you might not want to do that.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/31/south-africa-may-face-coalition-future-after-jacob-zuma-mk-upends-election
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Saints just a little better than Sarries across the pitch yesterday, squeaking a 22-20 win.
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Lions beating Stormers!
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Stormers now leading 22-21. Meanwhile, it’s 12-6 in Treviso.
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Albornoz (the 10) scores again.
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And Treviso get the BP try!
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And another! Edinburgh’s defence currently less sieve-like than colander-like.
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Everitt oot.
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With Tom Dunn on one side and O’Flaherty on the other, is Bath v Sale the battle of the spherical heads?
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More action in the first half of Bath v Sale than almost the whole match last night. Two tries apiece, with just a Russell penalty the difference between the teams. Bath lead 18-15 at half time.
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Bath have beaten Sale 31-23. That was a fun match. The final next week will be Bath against Saints.
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Lions lost. Nothing else matters.
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Munster have scored already.
Seems McCloskey was injured in the past 24 hours, because he ain’t playing.
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Deebee – I’m sorry for your loss. It was looking quite hopeful for a long time, which of course makes it worse.
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Bulls won. Top of the log. Pretoria full of brandy tonight
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TRY Herring!
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Deebee
This waltz, this waltz, this waltz, this waltz …
With its very own breath of brandy and death
Dragging its tail in the sea
(That must be a hell of a long tail.)
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Ospreys have scored, but now Cardiff have too!
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PEN Cooney. 7-10 to our heroes.
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Will Addison is one of the nine Ulster players leaving. I can’t wait.
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C’mon Ulster!
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Munster out on their feet. Missing passes, taking contact behind the advantage line. Then the ref remembers where his wages come from. #justiceforminnows
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TRY McCann!
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At it’s 7-17 at HT! Unexpectedly brilliant!
Ospreys have scored again but not converted, so it’s 7-12 at 35 mins.
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Even the ref couldn’t deny that!
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Just realised the Lions got 8th spot! No wonder Munster are tanking this! The Bulls are gonna get hammered in Pretoria if things stay this way.
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12 all in Cardiff at HT.
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Commentators have just said that both McCloskey and McIlroy were injured in the warm-up.
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Bugger. Calvin Nash has scored for Munster.
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But Ulster score again almost immediately!
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Izichukwu did most of the work, then Matty Rea finished it, not without some skill of his own.
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Post
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Dammit, Munster have scored again.
And so have the Ospreys, and Cardiff have a man in the bin.
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Munster win a penalty in front of the posts, but choose to go to the corner and their somewhat dodgy line-out instead.
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And they bloody score from it!
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Crowley misses the conversion, so it’s 26-24.
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Ospreys have scored again (for the BP), but Cardiff might have too!
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That one wasn’t, but this one was.
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Crowley does make a penalty.
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Just over a minute to go, and Ulster win a penalty.
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It’s all useless. Ulster do have a losing BP though.
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22-26 in Cardiff, though, with 6 1/2 mins to go.
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I’m happy enough with that. We probably won’t go any further, but we’re into the European Cup, and I’d be quite happy for Munster to win.
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I think the Ospreys just snuck into 8th? That’s a helluva result for them. Edinburgh and Lions pretty stunned!
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Yes, Cardiff got a red card late in the match, and then there was a penalty try (and yellow card) to Ospreys at the end.
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I had never really thought of The Doors as a prog-rock band before, but there’s a live concert on Sky Arts at the mo, and it really is very proggy….
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Nice to see a couple of folks getting a good old fashioned TomP facting on the Graun. Almost like old times…
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RIP Rob Burrow. One of the greatest to play the other code.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/articles/c2qqwvwzp5zo
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