Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
And happy birthday for tomorrow, Thaum!
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Oh no, now I’m going to have to watch another dreadful game of football next week.
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Happy belated, BB – upon reflection, I thought it was yours! And thanks!
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SBT – what’s it like having to watch more than 3 games in an international football tournament?
Asking for a (Scottish) friend….
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HB, BB
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Ta Ticht.
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Happy belated birthday BB. And happy birthday for tomorrow Thaum.
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Now let’s watch Scotland crush the mighty Canadians.
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Not sure if there’s any truth to the rumour that the Scottish team were introduced to each other in the car park before the game…
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Thaum, have a lovely day tomorrow.
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Bit confusing that the game clock on the tv is counting DOWN from 40 minutes.
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Canada rumble over for a try, then a few minutes later Scotland get one of their own. Good quick possession and Bayliss over.
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And we’re in for another one. Apparently this is Canada’s first home international in two years?!?!
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Canadian director quite fond of their aerial shots of Ottawa. Looks lovely, by the way.
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Seen some highlights of the Ireland game, looks like it was quite exciting. Mr Lowe seems to have had an interesting match at any rate.
Have been off the rugby for a while for a few reasons, partly my teams being complete and utter shite for so long (the World Cup group games aside I could count the number of games I’ve seen a team I support win in the last three years on one hand), but other things also getting in the way. Lack of posting on here partly due to lack of interest in the game, but other stuff too that has left me down in the dumps. Was nevertheless very pleased to see Glasgow come good in the URC, didn’t expect to see a team from outside Ireland or SA win that for a very long time so a really outstanding achievement. Hope life (and rugby) has been treating everyone well!
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Scotland over for try number 3!
Hope things are getting better for you now Clyde.
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Thanks BB – and Happy Birthdays before and after to you and Thaum.
I expect my postings will remain sporadic for a while, but time will tell!
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The clock is counting up for the second half.
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I was only half watching, but that was a proper humping. Final score Canada 12 – 73 Scotland.
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Yup. Plenty of times Scotland teams in the past would have won but made hard work of it. 10 players getting dayboos is good, helps to build a bit of depth in the squad. Reckon games will get tougher from here, particularly with the travel involved. USA next, then Chile and Uruguay.
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It’s always good to hear from you CMW.
If my teams getting humped stopped me from posting I would have been very quiet over the last thirty years of online communication – it’s not a lot of fun. It must be so very easy being a New Zealand or a South Africa supporter by accident of birth whereby you get to expect a World Cup win and are genuinely disappointed when it doesn’t happen.
Likewise on the domestic front when your team is always at the business end of things.
We Edinburgh fans have little to celebrate, to be honest.
But I did celebrate getting shot of the rotten borough government we’ve had for far too long, the bunch of fucking crooks. I hear Labour are not going to let it lie, they want the money back for the taxpayer and are going to prosecute the corruption – that is fantastic news
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HB Thaum. :-)
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What was the Canuk guy’s name here?
Canada used to be a decent side, they’ve really fallen off recently and it’s a real shame, I used to like them a lot.
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Ticht – LikeADogOnABone (LADOAB).
He came to one of the 6N meetups from the old site. Lovely fella.
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY FOR FRIDAY BB AND HAPPY BIRTHDAY TODAY THAUMA! 🎂 🥳 🎉 🎈 🎁 🎊
My head is sore this morning, strangely.
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Hope things look up for you, CMW, love having you on these boards.
Ticht, I support the Lions to stay grounded. Cough. Actually, the Boks between World Cups tend to be hit and miss, which is one of the things this group have spoken about changing to get more consistency between World Cups.
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Thank you all!
CMW, it’s good to see you and I hope all is well with the Eldest One.
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Hi all
Out of circulation last week.
Managed to see the 1st half of Eng/NZ on rewatch – good game so far (I’ll try to watch remainder tonight)
On Ireland / SA – well, Sheehan is now gone with ACL, and Casey with a concussion.
Scrum with Bealham and Healy pulverised at the end there. Osborne went ok at 15 – at least we’re trying ‘some’ development – got done by Arendse on first try …but who wouldn’t
Unfortunately, we looked under-powered. Only Doris and to an extent Beirne and Porter got any real go forward on their carries, and the way we play we don’t really want Doris as a primary carrier, and Beirne isn’t one either. Could have done with a fit Henderson.
Lowe mixed the great and the awful. Though he was unlucky on the breakaway try – looked like the home tv director brought it to Whitehouse’s notice, . Also unlucky on the Kolbe try – none of the nearby Irish players were tuned in.
I get that pressure is always on Farrell from IRFU to “win now” – he was gone if we’d lost ot England in 2021 6N, but almost every big change has come from an injury – does Hansen get in if Stockdale wasn’t injured, does Nash get a run if Hansen’s not injured, Sexton retiring forces the choice between Crowley and Byrne/Byrne.
I suppose we ought to look at Farrell like the coaches of European football teams – mainly just there to get a tune out of the squad of players – recruitment/retention/development lies elsewhere
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Trisk, I thought when Munster lost to Glasgow in the URC that PO’M looked off the pace, either a season too long or just end of season fatigue. At 35-ish, he’s probably not got too many legs left. Doris is a beast – I doubt that Kwagga Smith will get the starting 8 jersey again after Saturday because we need someone to stand up to him and van der Flier. If Kolisi and du Toit are going to be roaming in the wide channels like last weekend, we’ll need more protection for Faf (or hopefully Grant Williams) at the breakdown.
Who are the props waiting in the wings? Furlong is 31 and Porter 28, so both starting props have still got a few years, and are excellent, but Healy is 36 and Bealam 32, and a step down, so both probably not around that much longer (unless Dan Cole is the role model!).
James Lowe turns 32 today as well! Happy Birthday, James Francis Rawiri Lowe! Jeez, he seems to have been around a lot longer for some reason.
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@deebee
General consensus is that O’Mahony is at the end – years and the mileage catch up. Probably, got something to offer as a “cute” closer
The contract “faff” indicated that the IRFU regarded him as at the end, so didn’t want to offer an extension on the CC. Munster weren’t going to match the CC. Farrell wants him as captain, so we ended up in a standoff where the Irish captain wasn’t going to be on a CC, and if he was offered a Munster contract it would be about 50% of the CC he had previously been on…..in the end Munster offered a short contract and IRFU chipped in about 60% of the value.
Indicates some disconnect between Farrell and Nucifora. But seeing how Doris annoyed Pearce, (and similarly early in the season in a Leinster game Carley refused to talk to co-captain Ryan ) – you’re getting an inkling of why Farrell retains O’Mahony as captain.
Front row is a potential disaster area. Furlong and Porter aren’t old but have lots of mileage. Furlong does about 60mins and Porter about 70. Healy is still the goto man for both Leinster and Ireland as he covers both LH/TH (and hooker!)
Leinster have a lot of LHs under contract – but none are getting significant game time – except in that Leinster way … mins late on when leading Dragons 30-0, or starts away in SA when they leave the main party at home and take the juveniles to get hammered.
Ulster – Warwick seems to be not considered, and Eric O’Sullivan – who has been in Irish squads seems to have gone backward
Munster – lot of promising ex-U20s. Wychereley hasn’t developed as expected – bit undersized. Loughman has played well this season and featured in 6N but was left out here in favour of Tom O’Toole switching from TH. Loughman doesn’t quite offer the loose power of Porter – few do.
Of coirse, we lost Jack McGrath – Lions LH in NZ2017 to injury – so that gap is noticeable now.
On tighthead – Bealham is a good passer and rucker, but gets away with gimmicks in the scrum. Maybe Wilson from Ulster will emerge. Leinster again have piled up lots of U20s Again their younger THs only get minutes in games that are won or are treated as cannon fodder. Hence, the need to sign Slimani as cover for Furlong as Alaa’atoa (sp?) moves on
Munster have Jager – and maybe he’ll get a run on Saturday. But needed to get John Ryan back as cover. Munster also have a number of promising THs in the academy – hopefully, they’ll get a chance and will develop
Hooker is less of a black spot but I don’t know what Farrell is up to with calling in Heffernan.
Kelleher can – hopefully – put the injuries behind him and Herring is an able deputy. Stewart of Ulster is – I understand – injured or requires recuperation. Leinster have a couple of possibles – but again never get any worthwhile minutes. Scannell from Munster – no Sheehan alternative but decent scrummager and thrower.
Bottom line is forward planning is negligible. We’ll end up like Wales – allowing top performers to age out and having to go all in on next generation and wait as they sink or swim
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Note that I liked the detailed response, thanks Trisk, I wasn’t liking the lack of planning and imminent collapse of Irish rugby. Necessarily. I see that Farrell has called an Ulsterman into the squad as cover. I’d better warn Rassie.
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@deebee
I think we will be ok – there’s talent in the U20s (2 GS and 2nd this year) – no defeat since 2021
But Leinster success has created issues. As I mentioned above, theyve a logjam in some positions. But lads won’t move.
As Leinster accumulated central contracts – it gave cash to spend down the chart. So, they could pay above what other provinces would offer (or match it) – Munster can’t outbid Leinster.
Secondly, the success is also attractive – you’re part of a winning team (even if you play minimal minutes).
Thirdly, Leinster success meant that frequently team send the seconds to URC / Heineken matches in Dublin – when the down chart lads play it’s in these games or URC games during AIa or 6N – when everyone is missing internationals.
There’s been numerous rumours of X moving from Leinster to another province but ultimately these rumours come to naught.
Humphreys needs to unpick this. There’s been a bit of movement at academy level – where Leinster lads have been picked up by Munster and Ulster – seems like some are beginning to see that they’ve a better chance of serious playing time by moving than opting to be 4th or 5th choice in Leinster academy
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Yay! Hopefully Doak will get his first cap.
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There’s been numerous rumours of X moving from Leinster
You just knew that Elon Bloody Musk was involved with the horrible Blue Meanies.
Other than that, it’s good to have talented lads getting a shot in other squads, rather than sitting around waiting for the scraps off the table.
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@thaum
Can’t see it – Murray to start, with Blade to come on after 50 (if game won/lost) – maybe 70 if game tight
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some are beginning to see that they’ve a better chance of serious playing time by moving
Of course, while fringe Leinster players get squad callups ahead of provincial starters – I give you McCarthy ahead of Kleyn, Frawley ahead of Ben Healy, and Osborne ahead of Frisch – plus a number of “training” panellists – like Penny, Milne, Prendergast – lads will see the Leinster bench as a quicker route to Ireland recognition than playing for Ulster/Munster/Connacht
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Squidge talking about Scotland vs Canada!
Don’t think Kingsley Jones is his favourite coach somehow…
(Still waiting on his video about Glasgow winning the URC)
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Not sure what Squidge’s gripe is (other than Canada were on the verge of breaking through in mid 90s and are now in the dumps)
Certainly, doesn’t seem like Jones is popular in Canada. And with their results over last few years – one is not surprised
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Jimmy Anderson goes for 9 off his first over against the West Indies at Lords. Is he in danger of becoming cricket’s Joe Biden? When the New York Times editorial board signs a unanimous letter calling for you to step down, surely it’s time to take heed? That’s Joe to stand down, not Jimmy.
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Jimmy responds by conceding just two (off the bat) in his next four overs. He’s a remarkable athlete!
Debutant Gus Atkinson has taken two wickets without conceding a run in his first three overs! Jimmy who?
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West Indies really are a rabble when it comes to Test cricket: 88/6 and young Gus Atkinson has a Michelle on debut! Easy this Test cricket lark, innit? 3 wickets in four balls – just missed a hattrick on debut too!
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I have to share ProfessorPineapple’s post from another part of t’internet:
Suella, using this doll show us where the nasty pride flag hurt you.
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So, England’s fitba’ team are into the Euros final, and the Jimmy Anderson Tribute Act (AKA the England cricket team) are wiping the floor with the Windies.
Sorry folks, but you know what this means. According to Cat’s Rule Of Three, the rugby team are gonna get pumped on Saturday by the ABs.
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BB, you beat me to it! I shudder to think of the magnitude of the murder, given how RUTHLESSLY DOMINANT™ the other two codes are at the moment.
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Two Ulstermen on bench! Game will change in the last quarter, and not to the Boks’ advantage.
reland (v South Africa):
Player/Club/Province/Caps
Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster)(65)
Replacements:
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That’s a helluva change in the pack, moving Beirne to blindside and dropping O’Mahoney to the bench. Farrell looking to fight fire with fire up front. There is pretty much consensus down here that Kwagga Smith isn’t a starting 8 and should be playing off the bench, especially if Kolisi and du Toit are going to be ranging out wide like they did last week – we got humped at the breakdown and can’t afford that again. Murray at 9 brings huge experience (although that’s Joe Biden’s argument too), but may be slightly slower with his distribution. Bundee Aki out is a big blow, but Ringrose (who autocorrect keeps wanting to call Ringtone) is a fine replacement. Listening to Andy Farrell on my way to work this morning, he said that Ireland didn’t come to the party in the first half and they needed to correct that – I think you can see it in the choices at 6 and 9. POM will be a caged tiger on the bench!
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BB
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Happy happy BB. Yep, Kitty’s rule of three is fine, will take Borthers boys getting hammered in exchange for an extremely unlikely Euros win. Almost a done deal anyway, I suspect, with Freddie back at 15. For all his aerial prowess, he has an unfortunate habit of being poorly positioned on defense in broken play, which may not be useful against a DMac led ABs backline.
Murray, I have to say, surprised me last week when he looked surprisingly fleet of foot for an old boy. Boks still in box seat.
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Ryan coming in was no surprise, Beirne is probably first name on the team sheet (after Keenan and Porter maybe), McCarthy probably has to get another chance – he was fairly ineffective last week – so O’Mahony was the inevitable change. Doris played well, but vd Flier was only ok.
With Aki out – it’s another outing for Ringrose and Henshaw. I might have preferred McCloskey just for his ability to get the hands free and put a lad through the gap.
Closer/finisher probably suits Murray best now – lets see how it goes as a starter. Obviously, with Casey out – it would be unfair to ask Blade to start – so in truth the change here was enforced not chosen
Not expecting much – though my South African work colleague reckonss it’ll be close
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Anyone having trouble on this site, such as being asked to log in, or (if an admin), not being able to access the comments?
Problems reported on other site, but they are not affecting me at all.
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