Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
My thinking is that WP have made some kind of software update that fucks up everyone who isn’t a full admin. So Refit and I would be fine. Deebee and Flair have a lower level of admin access.
LikeLike
Nope. No problems.
LikeLike
Although each time I comment I get asked if I want to suscribe to Ovallyballs before the comment loads. I just click next to it and it disappears.
LikeLike
Sometimes it looks like I’ve logged in (my avatar is below the comment box), but it doesn’t allow me to post/like comments. It’ll turn out I’m not actually logged in and I have to click the 3 dots in the bottom right of the screen.
LikeLike
Hmm. The admin thing isn’t it, then. All is perfectly normal for me.
Why am I immune?
Is it because I is Ulsterwoman?
LikeLiked by 2 people
Am going to assume that all will be well in the morning when WP get their shit together.
Thanks for checking!
LikeLike
McDuhan now equal record try scorer for Scotland! Only about 5 minutes played.
LikeLike
Ashman over for the second. 20 minutes gone, lead 14-0.
LikeLike
Ashman over for his second, Scotland’s third. USA down to 14 after repeated infringements. Pitch is also cutting up something awful.
LikeLike
USA! USA! USA! Back in the game!
LikeLike
Ashman in for his hat trick try about 3 or 4 minutes into first half injury time. Hastings gets the conversion and we lead 28-7.
LikeLike
George Horne in this time. Typical number 9 support line. Although may be some obstruction by Ritchie? Nope, try good and conversion good. 7-35.
LikeLike
Second half very scrappy. Seems to be very humid and ball very slippy, plus lots of changes amke for not a great half. So far.
LikeLike
Scottish scrum just pulverizes American scrum and they go over for their next try, Fagerson this time. Now chucking it down. 7-42.
LikeLike
USA have an attack. Knock it on. A decent win, first half good, second half not so much. After losing the last time we played in America, I’ll take it. ‘Pro might not be so happy though…
Night all.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Trisk, some enforced changes, but I reckon the Irish pack is stronger than last week and it’s a statement of intent to dominate the Boks up front. I’ve no idea what to expect: on the one hand, the Boks should have got the rustiness out of their system and be more clinical in the red zone, but on the other, Ireland have nothing to lose, last match of the season and a better idea of what the Boks are doing. On another site it was mentioned that if you take the Boks early try out of the equation, it was 20-20 over the balance of the match; on the other hand, the Boks led 27-15 with a couple of minutes left and Ireland ‘won’ the last 10 minutes or so 12-7.
For me, it could go either way and could be as tight as a duck’s arse in water, or it could be (relatively) one sided if one side gets dominance for a prolonged period. Should be a great game!
LikeLike
Sometimes it looks like I’ve logged in (my avatar is below the comment box), but it doesn’t allow me to post
I think this is just a public service from WP.
90 minutes to ABs-England. Can I get my arse of the couch, run through a shower and get the dogs fed and walked before kick-off? Do they really need food and exercise?
LikeLiked by 1 person
This game is going at 1000mph!
LikeLike
What a beautiful cross-kick from Smith, for Feyi-Waboso to score from.
LikeLike
Wow! This has started like a house on fire! Kiwis with a great score down the narrow side by Telea, then Smith with a pinpoint crossfield kick for F-W to gather and step the defence to score. 7-7 after 15. England’s scrum has been been creaky, but so has the Kiwi lineout.
LikeLike
Another smart kick from Smith keeps New Zealand on the back foot. Then puts one too far and New Zealand rip them to shreds! But Smith recovers to grab an intercept and kill a certain try!
LikeLike
England scrum is not having a good night so far.
LikeLike
This game is incredibly even.
Even when England win a scrum, they lose. Ball to the back, Earl picks it up but Christie pounces on him and NZ turn it over for a penalty.
LikeLike
Luckily the NZ lineout is currently garbage. They stick it in the corner, from the penalty. Taylor throws it in, but Itoje just sticks his arm out and grabs the ball.
LikeLike
Smith just trying to do a bit much now. Putting England under pressure. Penalty NZ. Going for posts to stretch thr lead to 6. And it’s 13-7 with two minutes to the break.
LikeLike
Bah! Not enough patience in attack from England. A couple of times they’ve gone for the grubber after only a couple of phases. And as much as Smith is trying too much on his own he pings another pinpoint cross kick with a penalty advantage and Freeman gets above the defenders to pluck it out the air and dive over! Kick to come and Smith NAILS IT! 13-14 and England are ahead at the break!
LikeLike
The hooter goes and England get a penalty. With advantage, Smith puts a kick into the NZ 22 and Freeman jumps between Telea and another player, gathers the ball and drops over the line to score.
Smith kicks the conversion from wide right and England go into the break leading 13-14.
LikeLike
Steward’s not been great tonight. Still not running his weight, considering how huge a man he is and got caught in possession a couple of times.
LikeLike
Beauden Barrett’s pulling out all the tricks. A chip inside his 22, he chases it and kicks it on the full volley, on the 10m line.
LikeLike
I pity the video package guys, trying to cut this game down to just the ‘highlights’.
LikeLike
Bloody hell, Olly Sleightholme just did Reece on the outside.
LikeLike
England set a maul off the final penalty. NZ defend it well, George & Lawrence peel off and look to get over the line, possibly with Beauden underneath the ball.
After much deliberation, the ref rules that Lawrence was in front of George, therefore it’s penalty-obstruction (George is very not happy about this) and NZ put it into touch for the the win – 24-17. Their 49th consecutive victory.
A hell of a test match and a lot closer than 7 points, in my view.
LikeLike
Back from the shops just in time for Aus / Wales.
LikeLike
England will be kicking themselves, that was there for the taking. I thought England lacked patience in attacks, with Smith trying to many cute things – grubbers, trying to dummy through at first receiver, with others also doing the bloody grubber after too few phases. They needed to keep the ball probe more or force the penalty. Maro was magnificent until the two crucial penalties in the last 10 that gave the Kiwis breathing space and then momentum.
England fans will be pissed or sad, but they’re pretty close to a complete side, but for the overeagerness.
LikeLike
Who could have possibly predicted Liam Williams getting into aggro with a player, off the ball? Somehow gets away with sticking his hand in someone’s face.
LikeLike
Insane passage of play by Australia
Not long after, Dyer just refused to be tackled by Aussie players and ran through 5 of them to score in the corner.
33-28 to Aus, with 9 mins to play.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Refit, the Aus 5 got away with a bit of shithousery too. Not sure what he was carded for in the first half, but after that incident with Williams he was standing conspicuously out of sight of the ref waiting for the replays. Pretty sure you can’t just pick up players and sling them around like that. Even Liamability.
LikeLike
That was a great Aussie try – as was Dyer’s, he had no right to score!
LikeLike
Deebee – the Liam incident was just so…Liam though. Taking out the opposing 8, off the ball, and then (literally) getting in his face and squaring up. It was almost nostalgic.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Here’s Rio’s ‘fuck it, I’ll do it myself’ moment
LikeLiked by 2 people
Bloody hell, not even 2 mins on the clock and Le Roux is going off for an HIA and Mostert is covered in claret.
LikeLike
Etzebeth clobbered too, it seems (listening to the RTÉ commentary). Good going, lads!
LikeLike
8 mins and Eben’s off for blood.
LikeLike
The problem with RTÉ is that they are covering ALL sport, and keep bloody switching!
LikeLike
Ah well Thaum, it’s only RG Snyman replacing him.
LikeLike
We’ll have him too. And his little dog.
LikeLike
MURRRAAAYYYYYY!
LikeLike
There’s life in the old dog yet!
LikeLike
Oh, that was a lovely try by Ireland. Osborne hits a gap inside the SA 22. He almost loses the ball, but regathers, passes to Porter on his inside, who passes to Murray on his outside and he scored under the posts.
0-10 to Ireland, 15mins.
LikeLike
Le Roux has failed his HIA. Mostert is currently limping and calling for assistance.
LikeLike