Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Goods news Thaum, Eben’s back on.
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Snyman has just jogged off the park, with Eben coming back on. He has to turn around and go back on, with Mostert coming off.
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So far, so good!
Let’s have McCloskey on; sounds like we need a bit of bosh up the middle of the pitch.
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Ireland going well.
I’ve watched all the games last night and today so far but my main interest has been on our U20s who beat Japan last night to go into the final of the World Rugby U20 trophy competition where we will face USA. The game is on Wednesday evening.
Some of our backs have looked good as well as the forwards I mentioned previously, though I haven’t checked to see who will still be playing at this level in next year’s 6N and either the Championship or Trophy event, depending on where we end up.
I’m reasonably confident we can win next week, but I’m trying to avoid hubris as that has a hint of biting Scottish rugby supporters on the arse.
One who will still be playing next year is my new favourite player, Ollie Blyth-Lafftery, the just turned 18, 1.93m, 133kg tighthead I mentioned previously. He’s a feckin beast, we don’t turn out these guys very often, Zander Fagerson was the last one.
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habit rather than hint
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Speaking of young props, I really rate young Fin Baxter, (apologies to Thaum, but he really made me sit up and take notice when he battered the Ulster scrum a few months ago). Now he’s starting for England against the ABs.
He has a big future ahead of him.
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Furlong and Faf off for HIAs.
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Orcs on Dinosaurback, Refit
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Yellow for Doris, dropping his weight onto Snyman’s legs, as he’s pinned into a ruck.
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How are we only 10mins into the second half?
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It’s all going horribly wrong now.
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Bloody hell. Grant Williams catches a restart, maybe 15m from his own line. He puts in a huge kick, that bounces over Osborne’s head, on the Irish 10m and then Williams tackles him into touch on the 22. What a kick-chase.
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Frawley with a drop goal from just inside the SA half. Ireland 2 points down with 10mins to play. 24-22
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It’s quite funny, seeing PO’M and Snyman just having a chat, as they wander over to a scrum.
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A pause in play, because Eben’s bleeding again.
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YEEEESSSSS!
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Crowley Who? :-)
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Frawley’s nicked it? Drop goal in the 80th minute.
Wait, there’s a ref/TMO conversation over obstruction. It’s all fine, Ireland sneak the win. 24-25.
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That’s a hell of a kick to win it, well done Frawley and Ireland
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Skerries’ Finest, gwan Frawley
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Wow, the G’s posted the clip of Frawley’s hero moment. That was not an easy kick!
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I hope that was just a slip from Kolbe
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Ticht – they looked at it and decided it was.
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Thaum, yeah, I meant I hope he wasn’t trying to buy a penalty with a “dive in the box”, so to speak
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Oh, I see! I dunno. Sounds like the pitch was pretty slippy.
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The Arg/Fra match could be described as fractious. Kremer is a very angry man, on the pitch.
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Argentina 21-10 up at half time.
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FFS, the Argentina match started late and the stream cut off before it finished.
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Oh, it’s back. Just missed a French prop getting a yellow.
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Gone again
FFS, I didn’t do all that whack-a-mole on the site for this!
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Argentina have won 33-25. It was a very fun match (when the stream was working), lots of interesting patterns and wrap-arounds by Argentina.
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What a match that was! Ireland absolutely battered the Boks in the opening quarter and should probably have been more than 10 points to the good. Credit to us for keeping them to just 10. Then the Boks grew back into it, seemed to be inching towards a series win, only for Frawley to drop the goals, the mike and everything else to snatch it at the death. Huge from him and a massive win for Ireland. That was brutal and beautiful rugby all in one. Congrats to Ireland and their supporters! Magical stuff.
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I know how Eben and Willie feel this morning, my head is in pieces thanks to the Irish. In my case self-inflicted with Jamieson’s Triple Triple that Mrs Deebee was given as a gift. It was so smooth, so beguiling, so brutal and yet all you wanted was more. Much like the rugby team.
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Refit, I can’t believe Argentina won that! I know France have had some off the field issues this week, but thought they’d still have too much. We’ll done Los Pumas!
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Thaum, no problem commenting on laptop with chrome, but have to sign in every comment on ipad with safari, so don’t very often.
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SBT – my advice is not to use Apple products.
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Watching Aus – Wales U20s. Looked like the Straylians were out of sight, but young Macs somebody has just scored two tries in quick succession, and it’s 36-29 with seven whole minutes to go!
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Well, Wales looked to be galloping down the pitch again, but were called back for an offside, and the Wallababies held on.
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Where to start.
Had to watch last 30 of SA game on watch back yesterday as I was outvoted when Kerry / Armagh (gaelic football) came on ast 5.30 on Saturday – Kerry lost.
Balance of the pack was much better – Ryan looks refreshed – and since he missed most of Jan-April – he probably is. Also suits him to have McCarthy as the THL. As mentioned earlier
However, scrum is a concern. Rule at age grade is that the scrum can only move forward 1.5m – say 3 steps. (is there an equivalent elsewhere?) So, the emphasis tends to be on athletic props who can carry and hit rucks – we seem to be reaping the rewards of that policy now
Excellent stuff from Frawley – generally, everyone is saying he has to start at Leinster now. Up to now – Cullen has ignored this and preferred one of the Byrnes. Seems to be something of a battle of wills between Cullen and Farrell. Luke McGrath was preferred 9 until Farrell started picking Gibson Park, and now Farrell has pushed Osborne as FB where Cullen would have O’Brien or Frawley as the alternate to Keenan. Leinster forking out a huge chunk of change on Jordie Barrett looks odd now – he’d probably play FB or centre or even 10 – positions that Frawley and Osborne cover.
Crowley Who? :-)
Wel, I’d reckon he’s still the starting 10 – played pretty well on Sat – nailed his kicks, and put Osborne through the try, and as ever got stuck in for tackles and rucks. Frawley’s value is going to be mainly in a 6-2 – covering 3 positions potentially
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Busy elsewhere, I watched all games on replay. Brilliant matches between NZ and England and SA/ Ire. Less so Oz/Wales or Arg/France.
NZ certainly deserve to win the series but England are quietly and nicely rebuilding, with a terrific defence.
Ireland seem to have finally overcome the loss of Sexton. If only for scoring the only try, I’m glad they beat a poor SA.
Oz and Wales were a sore watch after such quality (am worried for both teams, where will the improvement come from?) , and so was Arg vs France. At least it was early season for Argentina, and they scored some nice tries. A few players for France B showed they may climb upstairs and that’s it.
The best game for me was the U20s semi final yesterday between NZ and France. A bit naive for sure, but so much talent, speed, intelligence. At least watch the highlights, you won’t regret it.
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Didn’t rise early enough to see NZ/England, but saw Aus vs Wales (on and off). Was impressed with Dyer’s try – I had him marked down as a speedster and not much else but showed impressive power.
Oz had problems with Welsh maul and vice versa, and the Daunugu try from Williams’ attempt to keep the ball in play made me wonder – didn’t anyone watch SA / Ireland last weekend?
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Just now I called Cole Palmer a pastry on a football group chat. So thank you all for that.
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Did you call Harry Kane an anti-pastry? Or something worse…
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:poor Harry – that’s probably the 2nd major final of three in his career where he’s played carrying an injury. We’ll never know if he exaggerated his fitness or if he was press-ganged.
Alf Ramsey got away in 1966 by dropping Jimmy Greaves who hadn’t really recovered from shingles with a young guy called Hurst.
Southgate had struggled through to this point with Kane – hindsight is 20/20, and maybe Spain would have been under greater pressure with Watkins or Toney starting. Equally, either of Watkins or Toney would have been under huge pressure starting and maybe entering as a sub is a free hit for them.
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Interesting point made by Cannyman over on the Graun about the summer tours (and I think Ticht has mentioned this before). Scotland haven’t played in Australia since 2017, South Africa since 2014 and New Zealand since 2000. I’m trying to find out who decides who plays where on these tours but can’t see anything definite. Is it World Rugby (and how do they decide?). Is it the countries being toured?
Also, fair play to Italy for actually playing in Samoa and Tonga.
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@bb
assumed it was the countries / unions themselves
That said – I’m amazed that Scotland haven’t been to NZ since 2000.
Ireland have played in NZ in 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and of course 2022.
They’ve played here 2005, 208, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2021, and again this autumn. Throw in Soldier Field 2016, and the RWC of 2019 and 2023.
Up to 2000, we’d played them 14 times in 92 years (1095 to 1997) – since then 23 times!
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Think part of that might be because we were shite for most of those years. Of course, there’s supposed to be this new summer Nations League (or similarly titled) thing in 2026 which might put the kibosh on future tours.
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I’m just wondering how different the laws were in 1095.
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The scrums were ‘fun’. Or so Dan Cole says….
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That should have been 92 years (1905 to 1997) rather than 902 years from 1095 to 1997
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