Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Eye of Prop and toe of Frog.
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1095 – Celts against the Maori?
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Ah, Just checked. Maori apparently didn’t arrive until 1200-1300. Although there did seem to be people there before them. Mysterious people hiding in the mountains. Possibly hobbits. Or dwarves.
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Scotland have won the U20s Trophy competition, beating USA 48 – 10 in the final.
It’s good to be back at the top table for next year. I hope we can stay competitive at that level.
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@ticht/BB
Congratulations on the win and promotion. Apparently the groups for next year are already decided based on this year’s placings
Let me see….
1,6,7 and the promoted team.
2,5,8,11
3,4,9,10
Translates to
-England or France,
– two from Wales/Aus/SA/Argentina – you get the loser of 5th place playoff and winnner of 7th place playoff
England or France – not so nice – type of opponent that could do for your PD and land you easily in the 9-12 playoffs. Italy beat Australia – but bad loss to Ireland and no BPs landed them in bottom 4
Ireland’s group is already decided – Ireland, NZ, Georgia, Italy
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Trisk, we have no illusions about winning the tournament, it will always be about survival for us at this level. We only need to win our very last game to stay at the top table, any more than that is a bonus, to my mind.
We will have 15 returnees next season, we will have a decent front row and (mostly) back row, unfortunately the two big bad bastards in the second row and the one on the blindside won’t be there
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We will have 15 returnees next season
Decent amount of 2nd years – makes a big difference
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Decent amount of 2nd years – makes a big difference
Yeah, many of them are just 18 at the moment so some of them will play three years. The big question is what happens between now and then. There is a big back story to this, much of it I’ve already spoken about, but the bottom line is that the Super 6, the 6 clubs below Edinburgh and Glasgow and where almost all of the current crop have been playing their rugby, that has been scrapped and there is no coherent plan in place to get these youngster regular competitive rugby. The SRU have mentioned something about more A games for Edinburgh and Glasgow but that only goes so far.
Incidentally, I hear that Italy have done something very similar, the clubs have made a power move and made the Italian union scrap their youth development programme in favour of more status for the clubs.
Italy’s U20s have seen a huge step up and that is filtering through to their full men’s team.
It’s comforting in a gallows humour way to see that the arseholes aren’t just in Scotland.
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On a brighter note, I’ve finally learned how to italicise on here – Happy Days
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Georgia hammering Australia! Scoring a point a minute so far! 3-0.
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Aus hit back with a well worked try, although there looked to be a ‘very flat pass’ earlier in the move. Aus opening the floodgates, a point a minute. 7-3
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Aus barge over from close range for another try. Converted and keeping up with the clock: 14-3. Could get messy, with Georgia’s defence struggling.
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And another. 19-3 after 21 minutes. Clock running away with it at the moment.
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Seem to have missed a bit, Australia got a red card somewhere, and are down to 14 for another 9 minutes and Georgia have roared back to be trailing 26-17 after 46 minutes. Aus do have a lineout deep inside Georgia’s 22.
Georgia! Georgia! Georgia! They turn it over on their tryline, go through the hands, kick forward and the wing gathers in one hand to race through for a try under the posts! 26-24 with 32 minutes still to go!
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Bah! A defensive lapse from a lineout and despite the Wobblies best attempt to pass themselves into another turnover they score. 33-24 with the extras. Georgia definitely looking more competitive than last week’s mob. Cough.
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Ended 40-29, with some great tries by Georgia. They fell off a few tackles in the last 20 minutes which allowed the Aussies to stretch the lead, but never went away.
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Was that the first example of the 20 minute red card?
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Ouch, NZ absolutely hammered Fiji, in the early hours
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Portuguese front row is 16kg heavier than the titchy little Bok one.
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10 minutes in and it’s been just about all Portugal. Eventually the Boks get the ball through the hands, but turn it over and Portugal go the length of the field to open the scoring! 0-7 and full value for it!
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Esterhuizen was yellow carded for a head tackle, which looked iffy, which has been upgraded to red. The commentators are saying that’s it, although I thought we were on 20 minute red cards? If not, the Boks will play 75 minutes a man down. Boks score through debutant prop Wessels and Libbock misses a simple conversion. Surely he has to be dropped with such shit goal kicking?
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Portuguese scrum stood up well in the first few, but just got pumped. Boks starting to take control, but handling and communication a bit dodgy, as expected given there’s plenty of new faces and combinations.
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Fassi cuts through the Portuguese defence with some beautiful, balanced running, chips the defence and Arendse scores in the corner! 13 in 18 Tests now. 17-7 to the Boks after Libbok converts the most difficult of the 3 so far!
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Boks 22-7 up, playing some decent stuff, but probably still a bit too eager at times.
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Arendse now binned for a croc roll. Boks have five backs for the next 10.
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29-7 at half time. Libbok has landed the two conversions from the touchline and missed the three easy ones. Still don’t think Esterhuizen deserved red, but there you go. Boks could score a bucket load from here, but need to sometimes just recycle instead of going for the miracle offload.
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A couple of stunning tries: first SF-M carves open the Portuguese defence to send Mapimps in for his second, then the Portuguese winger says hold my beer and beats four defenders to go over! 43-14 with 15 to go.
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64-21 final score. Portugal played some great rugby when they had the ball, some lovely handling and enterprise, but ultimately they were beaten by a more physical side that also showed some great hands and running. If you haven’t yet heard the name Sasha Feinberg-Ngomezulu, you’ll hopefully be hearing it for years to come. He’s a gem and I think we may have seen Manie Libbok’s last game as a Bok.
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Scrappy start in Santiago.
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Took a while, but our first try has arrived via Bayliss.
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Second try in from Rowe. Last pass was a bit ‘flat’, but try stands. 14-6.
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Lovely cut back against the grain from Healy, pass out to Dobie and in for try number 3. Took a bit of time to get going, but Chile (or Chee-lay as the commentators say) are tiring a bit.
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Half time 21-6.
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Lovely try Scotland!
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Chile try! Came after a brilliant 50-22 kick from their 10. Comeback on!
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Nope. Scotland get another try through Curry. Game had got a bit stretched, but when we up the pace, and make sure the passes stick, we’re too good for Chee-lay.
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Currie, not Curry.
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And there is a Peeblian on for Scotland! Patrick Harrison (Peebles High School). Although born in Edinburgh, but you can’t be all good.
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Rowe in for a brilliant first phase try. Then runs half the length of the pitch and is almost in for another, but is stopped by a brilliant cover tackle.
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Kyle Steyn in to bring up the 50! Good win in the end. Still lots of things to work on, but we’re building up a bit of depth now. Think Uruguay might be another step up next week.
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Also Reynal’s last test as a referee today.
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What was I saying about next week’s game being harder?
Final score, Uruguay 5 Argentina 79!
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Hope Reynal’s enjoys his time away from the pressure of internationals (shame it wasn’t Brace doing the same). Thought he was a pretty good, sympathetic ref.
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At the other end of the scale, it was good to see Hollie Davidson take charge of her first men’s international (I think – the highlights were so badly edited I wasn’t sure what they said about her).
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Any GB-based notabloggers catch the All Ireland hurling final?
Beeb were showing it live (apparently for first time – think I can recall C4 showing it in 80s or 90s)
A great match – won after extra time by a point by Clare (where Marcus Horan comes from) over Cork.
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Hurling kills the blog…..
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‘Tis a dangerous sport…
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BB, I think Hollie has reffed an Italy v Georgia match in the men’s before. She’s a good ref, calm, explains things clearly and has a good rapport with the players. Watching her explain to RG Snyman why she reversed a penalty for his behaviour was quite funny – I think she literally takes him up to his stomach!
Can’t think of any glaring errors on Saturday, although there were a few grumbles here that she simply bought into whatever the TMO said.* Can’t have complaints about the Esterhuizen red on that score, it was bad technique at best. The KLA croc-roll was marginal, but probably technically correct and the Horn yellow was bang on.
*Most posters here thought it was red, both live and after the match. Curiously, I wasn’t one of them, live, but the replays did Esterhuizen no favours; prolly the right call in the end. Sort of. Just.
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See Ireland have continued their stranglehold over South Africa by beating them in the Olympic 7z.
Just watching Fiji being Fiji just now.
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Yip, our 7z side is pretty crap at the moment – got the last qualifying place in a playoff tournament. We also lost to NZ last night and need to beat Japan by a humungous score to qualify as a best loser. And then get knocked out in the last 8.
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