Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Does it not depend on where they finished the season? Munster finished top, so when/if they win, the final will be there. If Glasgow win they would go to the Bulls as they finished above us?
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‘Mon ra Weedge!!!
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BB – you could be right! Wasn’t really listening.
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Thieving Weedgies!
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Rugby! Bloody hell!
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I honestly thought we’d lose that fairly comfortably. Suppose it teaches me to equate our rugby teams with our football team.
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Sorry Trisk.
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Terrific performance from Glasgow.
That was a really good game, full of real edge. Winning a semi final in Thomond is no easy feat.
I thought Tom Jordan was superb.
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Two completely unexpected results! Although given I backed both Irish sides, no surprises they both lost. Was at my sports-hating brother-in-law so only watched the matches when I got home (and this morning). Unbelievable stuff!
Bulls youngster Cameron Hanekom put a big marker down to Rassie for the number eight spot, currently vacant with Vermeulen retired and Wiese banned. Willie le Roux will be a massive loss if he’s ruled out with his HIA.
And the Weege? Bloody hell! To go to Thomond, the capital of Irish rugby and burgle the crown jewels, so to speak, is some feat! Loftus will be a cauldron next week.
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Just seen pictures of the big screen at Munster from before the game which showed an advert for the final.
The Munster vs Bulls final…..
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It’s difficult to see Glasgow winning in Pretoria, but the odds were against them yesterday so you never know.
The Lions beating Glasgow was a season defining moment, if Glasgow had won there they would quite likely be playing the final in Scotland
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Have to say, it was nice of Munster to give Franco’s pre-match talk for him.
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The Bulls beat Glasgow comfortably about a month ago, although their defence in the last 20 was found wanting. I’m pretty sure Warriors know what to do this Saturday.
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“I’m pretty sure Warriors know what to do this Saturday.”
Give Suzie further employment?
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If you can find Suzie, 30 years later. More mysterious than Keyser Soze!
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Watched the Glasgow game on rugby24, really enjoyed it. Either of the T14 games worth watching in full ?
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@bb
Best of luck next week. I know we won down there last year but there was a 2 week turnaround between semi and final.
Hard to say how awful we were without detracting from Glasgow’s performance.
Couple of things made a difference – without Ahern (injured) we held Snyman back for “bench impact” – but really lacked any go forward. Loss of Nash meant we lacked a bit of ‘gas’ in back field.
Can’t really point at anyone – with exception of Beirne it was all below par.
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Haven’t seen the Bulls-Leinster game yet.
What I’ve briefly heard is that it was in line with what we’ve seen from Leinster recently – fairly blunt in attack in open play – side to side with no penetration, but lethal if they can get into the 22 and pick and go…..
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Trisk,my take on it was that the Glasgow defence was superb, to a man. I only watched it after reading comments here, so already knew the result, but was still expecting the Munster attack to start cutting the Weedge apart, there was some really slick handling and movement at times, but somehow the last tackle was always made. Didn’t help that the breakdown was really well attacked by Glasgow, slowing the ball down and making sure that Jones and Tuipolatu were really in their oppos faces. Both 9s were under constant pressure, but Horne dealt with it better.
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Trisk, that’s pretty fair – the Leinster attack has seemed a bit rudderless since you know who retired. Could it also be that teams are starting to work Leinster out after a few seasons of largely continuity? Although, even if you do, you still have to beat them!
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Deebee, I don’t think Leinster have quite the same depth right now as the have done in the past and sending kids to South Africa is a whole different proposition to sending them to Edinburgh or Newport.
Sexton barely played league rugby in the last four or five years and certainly not away from home, so it’s not just him.
All of that plus players like Ringrose being injured makes them human again. It looked for a while that they’d put the Faded Glory days behind them but the South African teams have ensured you can’t get away with being below par now.
I welcome the SA teams and really enjoy watching them, but the travel is a nonsense
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Sides announced for Saturday’s Wales-Bok match at Twickers. I like the sides announced early in the week, it gives us all a chance to rage about selections. I can’t say much about the Welsh side, other than Jac Morgan is out, which is a big blow, but Liam Williams is back, which I imagine is good news for Wales.
The Bok side has some seasoned players, especially up front, and it’ll be good to see where Malcolm Marx is, after being injured in week 2 of the World Cup. Very strong run-on pack and replacement front row. Good to see Kwagga Smith get a start – with him and Marx in tandem, Wales may not get too much quick ball from the rucks and mauls. Lots of people down here don’t like Moerat, the replacement 2nd row, although he’s a bit underrated in my view. Also with Lood de Jager still not in the frame, RG Snyman and Jean Kleyn not selected and Ruan Nortjé at the Bulls not available, he’s the next cab off the rank. Dixon, the replacement loose forward, is in the Franco Mostert mould – can play 2nd row or back row and has a huge engine on him. If the Bulls hadn’t made the Final, I think you’d have seen their number eight, Cameron Hanekom (Welsh qualified through his grandmother) getting his first cap.
The backs are very interesting. Faf at 9 is no surprise, but Jordan Hendrikse at 10 raises a few eyebrows. He’s been very good for the Lions this year (and last) so it’ll be good to see if his more expansive style can get the backs going. More reliable goal kicker than Manie Libbok too! Mind you. I’d be a better option than Manie at this stage.
Esterhuizen and Kriel in midfield should be very solid defensively, if a little lacking ball in hand. The back three has been a source of concern with injuries, and without Arendse, Kolbe, Moodie, Willemse and le Roux there was always going to be some fairly radical restructuring of the back three. Fassi had a breakthrough season a couple of years ago and then fell apart, notably on defence, but has been vastly improved this year, and is electric with ball in hand. Mapimps has been there, done that all before and won’t let us down, whilst Edwill van deer Merwe has been super for the Lions this season – Wales probably won’t want to kick to him with space.
Wales: 15. Cameron Winnett, 14. Liam Williams, 13. Owen Watkin, 12. Mason Grady, 11. Rio Dyer; 10. Sam Costelow, 9. Ellis Bevan; 1. Gareth Thomas, 2. Dewi Lake (captain), 3. Henry Thomas, 4. Matthew Screech, 5. Ben Carter, 6. Taine Plumtree, 7. James Botham, 8. Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: 16. Evan Lloyd, 17. Kemsley Mathias, 18. Kieron Assiratti, 19. James Ratti, 20. Mackenzie Martin, 21. Gareth Davies, 22. Eddie James, 23. Jacob Beetham
South Africa: Aphelele Fassi; Edwill van der Merwe, Jesse Kriel, Andre Estherhuizen, Makazole Mapimpi; Jordan Hendrikse, Faf de Klerk; Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, Vincent Koch, Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Pieter-Steph du Toit (C), Evan Roos.
Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Ntuthuko Mchunu, Frans Malherbe, Salmaan Moerat, Ben-Jason Dixon, Grant Williams, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian de Allende.
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Ticht, I have no idea how you overcome the travel issue. Our sides have been on the wrong end of it for years, even worse in the Super Rugby days, with the time zones and having much longer tours than the Kiwi and Aussie sides had. The URC has definitely helped our rugby in stemming the player drain, to an extent, and I’d imagine that’ll be reinforced once we’re full partners in everything from next year (I think), with the clubs and SA Rugby all getting more money – and in hard currency too. I hope it works out that way and gives our squads the ability to compete on both fronts properly, rather than the farcical sending B squads over and relying on big home wins.
As for Leinster, they’re not quite Faded Glory yet, but all sides go through troughs and peaks – probably only the Crusaders at club level were largely unbeatable for about a decade, but that was on the back of a national side similarly good (or vice versa?). I think in this era, you’re unlikely to stay on top of the tree for more than a few seasons without constant overhauling of squads, which is expensive, unless you’re bringing through excellent youngsters.
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Ireland Squad – Summer Tour 2024:
Player/Club/Province/Caps
Forwards:
Ryan Baird (Dublin University/Leinster) 20
Finlay Bealham (Buccaneers/Connacht) 40
Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster) 50
Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster) 41
Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster) 76
Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster) 129
Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch) 39
Cormac Izuchukwu (Ulster/Ballynahinch)*
Oli Jager (Munster) 1
Ronan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster) 31
Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster) 10
Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)(captain) 105
Tom O’Toole (Ballynahinch/Ulster) 13
Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster) 64
Cian Prendergast (UCD/Connacht) 3
James Ryan (UCD/Leinster) 62
Dan Sheehan (Lansdowne/Leinster) 26
Nick Timoney (Banbridge/Ulster) 3
Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster) 62
Backs:
Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht) 56
Caolin Blade (Galwegians/Connacht) 2
Craig Casey (Shannon/Munster) 14
Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster) 14
Ciaran Frawley (UCD/Leinster) 4
Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster) 72
Jordan Larmour (St Mary’s College/Leinster) 32
James Lowe (Leinster) 31
Stuart McCloskey (Bangor/Ulster) 17
Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster) 116
Calvin Nash (Young Munster/Munster) 6
Jimmy O’Brien (Naas/Leinster) 8
Jamie Osborne (Naas/Leinster)*
Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne/Leinster)*
Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster) 58
Jacob Stockdale (Lurgan/Ulster) 37
Unavailable: Jamison Gibson-Park (hamstring injury) and Jack Conan (personal reasons).
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Deebee
I’d be a better option than Manie at this stage.
If you hadn’t said that, I would’ve!
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@ticht
From the Munster POV, there seemed to be an assumption that the “conveyor belt” from the fee paying schools in and around Dublin would never end (certainly that’s the impression put out by a lot of the local media) .
Recent U20s have featured bigger numbers from Munster and Ulster, and probably the better players in those cohorts have been from outside of Leinster. And even in here, some are opting for other provinces and a quicker route to a pro place than get stuck in the the Leinster logjam.
The “logjam” is getting wider currency – at first it was regarded as great to have 4 or 5 guys in line, but the real effect as we see at 10 is that either no-one gets experience (see Byrne, Byrne, Frawley, Prendergast all gettting dribs and drabs of time – never mind Tector) or like LH they pile up young lads but when push comes to shove opt for Cian Healy (all helped by the free money from CCs)
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@thaumr
Going to have to compose my thoughts on that squad.
Congrats to Cormac Izuchukwu who’s looked great for Ulster but 3 2nd rows on a tour to SA? I know both Izuchukwu and Baird can play there but it’s one thing to play there in URC vs Zebre or the Dragons, any injury to Beirne or Ryan and we’ll be thin there.
Blade ? Why not Cooney – at least he’s a goalkicker on top.
As for the 10s… Frawley – who Leinster only play there in an emergency – and Prendergast – who has no real experience at 10 in a big match…. played a few URC dead rubbers…
LH – drop Loughman and bring the ghost of Healy plus Tom O’Toole – who’s just working on moving across and could probably do with the summer to work on it away from SA
No full back – but lots of lads who might slot in there in an emergency. O’Brien probably front-runner but he’s swiss army knife … solid enough but unlikely to add much. Granted Hansen if fit would probably have replaced Keenan
We might cheese a win or a draw in the series but this has the makings of a car crash – lads who went to NZ, won a GS, played in RWC, won a 6N. Great run – but Leinster who make up the guts of this squad have looked increasingly tired and uninspired…
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Can’t disagree with that analysis, Trisk, except slightly confused about Izuchukwu, who is a lock. I am quite excited about an Izuchukwu-McCarthy pairing.
Obviously Cooney should be on the squad. Or Doak, who’s also an excellent goal-kicker.
Stockdale is one of those who can slot into the full-back position if required. When he’s on song he is very very good, but sometimes he sings out of tune, and both things can happen in the same match.
Will be looking forward to seeing how our new Kiwi 10 does next season. Apparently he is I-Q.
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@thaum
Izuchukwu seems to be positioned in that “half lock” slot – like Lawes or Beirne (at times) – part lock/part 6
Morgan is IQ – Ulster probably wouldn’t have been allowed to sign him otherwise
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the guts of this squad have looked increasingly tired and uninspired
The underdogging starts before the pixels have even settled. Or whatever pixels do.*
*Taking quotes out of context is the new normal, so stop moaning about it.
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JGP being out is a big blow to Ireland, I would think? He gets them ticking behind the forwards with his quick delivery and reading of the game. I also think that Peter ‘O has looked almost human this season, losing a bit of his aura. Pin that on his locker!
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Yeah, suppose it does sound like “underdogging”
Someone today said that Farrell picks his teams as if he was afraid he’d get sacked after the next game – and to be truthful if we hadn’t beaten England in 2021 – we would have gone. Maybe that never leaves you…
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Casey should be able to bring that speed as well
Feeling is that O’Mahony appears to be there as much for his ‘leadership’ now.
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Hard to think Ireland is not on a downward slope. The major mistake was the stubborn refusal to introduce replacements for both Murray ( and JGP wen injured) and Sexton. Maybe the personal wasn’t there but you’ll never know if you don’t try.
The forwards are still impressive and so are the wings and FB, but the centres are a bit meh at the moment. Maybe with its small pool of players, Ireland cannot sustain long periods of dominance such as NZ’s or SA’s?
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Hogg to Montpellier confirmed apparently.
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Hope he gets himself sorted, mentally as well as physically.
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If I said I’m neutral in tonight’s match, would that be tantamount to supporting Switzerland?
C’mon Scotland!
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It’s already a better performance than Friday, but then that wouldn’t be hard to do. Swiss are a good side though.
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but you’ll never know if you don’t try
Generally, as soon as you suggest giving someone a run – the cry goes up (esp from Leinster followers) – who would you drop ?
Can’t try a 10 cause it means ‘dropping’ Sexton.
Can’t try Frisch – oh, you want to drop Henshaw or Ringrose?
Can’t give a run out to Coombes or Hodnett or McCann – oh, so you want to drop Doris or van der Flier?
Central contracts were used not to secure ‘key’ players from being enticed to Englands or France but to reward starters. Then you can’t play X because be seen to pay top dollar to Y not to start every game
So, we’re currently locked into a Leinster-heavy panel which is aging out (for sure) or going to burn out (Porter?)
Oddly enough, Crowley was “found” because of injury / unavailabilty /etc – although pencilled as Munster starter in 2022 – he was selected for the ‘Emerging Ireland’ (“Emerging Frawley”) tour in Autumn 22. Frawley got injured, so Crowley started all three games in SA
Back at the AIs – Sexton was rested vs Fiji. Harry Byrne who had gone to NZ (!) was injured. So Carbery to start – and Crowley benching. Next week, Sexton is back and Carbery injured – so Crowley stays on the bench – Sexton pulls out in the warm up and Crowley starts. Ross Byrne then kicks a penalty – so he’s the backup in the 2023 6N – despite behind Carbery, his brother, Frawley (probably) and Crowley at the AIs
France are sending the 2nds down to NZ – and sent the 2nds to Aus in 2022.
with its small pool of players, Ireland need to try out everyone. who looks a little bit promising
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We score!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Scotland!!!
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FFS Scotland! Great strike, but what shit defence!
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We have a lot of good midfielders, but shit defenders (apart from Tierney and Robertson) and rubbish forwards. So passes like that aren’t surprising, sadly.
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Are you critiquing Scotland or England, BB?
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And can you specify the sport?
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Right, dozing off at half. Was a really good 1st half, but I’m not making it to the next 45!
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Don’t worry. If we win, you’ll probably hear me in South Africa!
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So, a draw? Scotland still theoretically in it, I think? Beat Hungary and have Germany clobber Switzerland and it’s an open path to glory.
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Beat Hungary and we have 4 points. Four of the best third-placed teams go through. Usually 4 points would be enough to go through.
Usually…..
Of course, we could batter Hungary and Germany could thump Switzerland and with a big enough swing in goal difference, we could finish second.
Ha.
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Looks like the England defence met at the anthems, or slightly later. Probably too busy posting on social media to have had a chat on the bus. What’s the issue? Can’t be the season being too long, is it Southgate? Believing their own hype? Don’t give a damn? Or just not terribly good?
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