Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Or actually playing a team that were tactically better than them.
Not that you would necessarily know it from listening to the Beeb.
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Thinking about it a bit more, today’s match was a classic case of a good ‘team’ playing better than a team with ‘good players’.
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BB – on the Scottish football: Second scenario for me. Scoptimist that I am. On England, I’m not sure their players are actually all that: playing in the wealthiest league in the world means that most sides are stuffed with great players from other countries. England’s players as a collective have looked a bit meh. QF at best, I’d say.
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Not sure how to link this directly, or even if I can, but this quote on the Graun Euros live feed sums it up perfectly for me. Even if it is from an Australian….
“Another outsider looking in (this time an Aussie in London). I personally found the coverage of last night’s game hilariously overwrought and entitled, Rio Ferdinand and Alan Shearer in particular. Yes, it was by no means a vintage performance, but take a step back and look at the facts – England are top of the group, drew against another Euro 2020 semi-finalist while not playing their best, and are looking a pretty sure bet for the quarters at least (none of the current third-placed teams look significantly more threatening than Denmark).
“If England’s fandom and punditry took just a moment of self-reflection, they might realise that this weight of expectation and hyperbolic reaction is unique to this country, and exactly what drives England to underperform. Get some perspective, and get behind your team – like every other country does!”
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I don’t really understand how the hyperbolic reaction from the public or expectations too high would drive England to underperform.
Once on the pitch, players forget everything except the game. Play is probably the only human occupation when adults live only in the present time, becoming kids again.
For my money, England is usually an average team with average players.
I’ve been watching football for 50 years and I can’t recall a single period during which England was the dominant team in Europe. Besides none of its players would be considered in the same league as Beckenbauer, Cruyff, Xavi, Zidane, Maldini, Pirlo, etc…
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The Springbok Eben Etzebeth will be winning his 119th cap – more than the entire Welsh pack.
Seriously? Is this true?
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Probably aiming to move your monster pack around too and wear them out, good luck Wales.
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Also. fun article of the day, Suranne Jones, which witch are you girl ? Answers on a postcard……
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Japan hammering England 3-0 so far.
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England appear to have turned it around slightly whilst I was walking the dogs.
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Bokke! Hope it’s a great game!
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Lots of ‘pundits’ here think it’ll be a hiding. I don’t. Boks generally start the season slowly and messily and are missing quite a few players. Boks by fewer than 10.
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Hendrikse does a Manie and misses a relatively easy penalty. From the restart the Boks go wide and Kriel is in! Good hands! Hendrikse converts! 7-0
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Wales with the breakdown penalty in front of the posts. Sam Costelow, seemingly wearing his age on his jersey, knocks it over no problem. 7-3
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Bit of a rusty start. First scrum. First penalty. Guardian will be flooded with outrage. First lineout, Boks lose it! Wales can clear. Evan Roos busts down the middle, held up a Metre short and Rio Dyer carded for cynical defence. Bok scrum 5m out. Penalty, Boks take it quickly and Wales penalised again.
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Boks drive from the lineout and penalty try! And another yellow. 14-3 after 15 minutes. Aaron Wainwright binned.
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@Deebee – oi! That’s Flight-lieutenant Wainwright to the likes of us.
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Roos spills the kickoff and Wales have a scrum in the 22. They get it out like a scalded cat and get another breakdown penalty. Right in front and Samwise hits it wide! Oh dear!
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Liambility shoots out the line and intercepts a SA pass. He’s tackled on the edge of the SA 22, but gets the pass away to Grady. He’s tackled in turn, but pops the ball right into Bevan’s breadbasket, but he drops it. SA scrum.
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Liam Williams with the intercept! Tackled by van der Merwe who remarkably gets up to tackle the receiver! Wales knock on and the Boks flood downfield from the scrum.
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Certainly flew off the park, Refit. Wales just starting to get a bit of traction in the match and another penalty takes them to just outside the Bok 22.
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Fassi’s been bombarded in the air and has done pretty well. They’re checking this one though with Fassi’s boot into the face of the Welsh player. Yellow and possibly red?
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Fassi’s lucky that he only shoved his studs into the Welsh player’s shoulder. The card it reviewed and it stays a yellow.
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Welsh lineout, looked like the Boks had won it, but Lake splashes through for the try! They’ve just about deserved it over the last 10 and Costelow nails the extras from out wide! 14-10. Fassi’s card stays yellow. Boks have gone flat with the restart out on the full now. Wales with a penalty from the maul.
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Another Welsh penalty as Roos is pinged for a deliberate knock on. 14-13 with five to go in the 1st half!
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Boks are making space, but just not quite executing properly. Wales get the scrum penalty despite getting their arses handed to them! Williams winning the aerial battles now, but can’t get it away. Assirati off for Wales just before HT.
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Mapimps! In the corner! Looked forward, reviewed but given. 21-13.
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Bok penalty and 24-13.
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Some great hands by Ox Nche! Almost as surprising as Frans Malherbe getting pasted in the tackle!
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Malherbe apparently hit in the neck. Superb work from the TMO to spot that he has one!
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Wales with another scrum penalty! Drive for the line, but did they get it down? No try on field. No clear evidence from the TMO. Wales come again from the drop. Turnover! But De Allende kicks it out on the full.
Hendrikse off, Sasha Feinberg-Ngomezulu replaces him. His first action in a Bok jersey is a knock on. Boks have been sloppy today.
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I think Bongi’s lucky there, he just drove into a tackle head-first, with arms an after-thought. Ref just says “they were both low, penalty only”.
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Costelow kicks it dead, from the penalty. TMO looking at another head on head by a Bok. Bongi. That’s yellow. Ref says similar to the Wales penalty earlier, so only penalty. Think he was a bit lucky actually. Etzebeth off, Moerat on.
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Wow, the Super Rugby final wasn’t even close. Blues crushed the Chiefs 41-10, Caleb Clarke getting a hat-trick
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De Allende gets a crucial turnover penalty in the Bok 22! A couple of penalties now going against Wales. SF-M going for posts from just inside his own half. Crikey, he could’ve nailed that from his 10m line!
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27-13 and the Boks maul up the restart. Edwill van der Merwe chases a box kick beautifully and forces the penalty! Boks down to Wales 5m line. The lineout drive is excellent and Bongi scores! 34-13 with the conversion. 10 to go.
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Van der Merwe just slices through the Welsh defence and goes in under the posts! What a debut! Been perfect on defence, and excellent with ball in hand. 41-13 and Wales have been hammered in the last 20 minutes.
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‘Mon Ra Weedge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Bulls are my least favourite Saffer side, but somehow I’m more nervous about this match than the Bok one earlier. Weird. Hope it’s a cracker!
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3-0 Bulls after 10 minutes. They’ve got the points, but the Weege have had the territory. Bulls then murder the Warriors scrum. They go wide from the lineout and almost get through. Lineout now on the Weege 5m line. Battering away with a penalty advantage, and another. Bulls decide to take the 3 from in front. Glasgow probably happy with that on balance.
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Weege have played with ambition in the 1st quarter, but the Bulls defence has been stingy. Now another Bulls penalty. And another. And time off, so the players do the modern jersey grab instead of punch up crap. Glasgow under the pump a bit. Glasgow defending manfully but Wilco Louw may have got over. Or may be penalised.
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No try. The Kraal don’t like it. Bulls come again. And get another penalty. Bulls are squeezing Glasgow here, but will want some points for it.
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And they do! Marco van Staden scatters the defence to barge over! A bit of niggle follows. Conversion is good and it’s 13-0.
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Cancilierie makes a fabulous break, but they can’t finish. But the Weege are upping the tempo. And then concede another penalty at the breakdown. Bulls clear to almost halfway with the throw. Weege contest and win the loose ball! Bulls get it back from the up and under and suddenly they slice open the defence! Nothing comes of it.
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Weege with a last highveld fling this half. And they’re over! Crucial score on the hooter! That’ll give them some pep for the 2nd half. 13-7 at the break!
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Warriors are right back in this match. That try on the hooter was crucial. Can they kick on?
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Bulls extend the lead to 16-7, but then screw up the restart. Glasgow take advantage and from a 5m lineout, they set the drive! Everyone bar the physio piles in and they’re over! 16-14!
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Glasgow are on top now and pushing hard, but a penalty for a neck roll allows thr Bulls to regather. It’s helter-skelter stuff with both sides giving away crucial possession/penalties when they’re on top. This is going down to the wire.
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Weege come again and they make a mess of it, but Kyle Steyn straightens up and Huw Jones is over! Weege in front for the first time! 16-21!
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Can the Bulls respond? They haven’t done much this half. They bash away and try through the close areas, but Glasgow intercept and score under the posts! No! Arendse tackled early and penalty Bulls! They kick into the Weege 22.
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