Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
Bulls go through 18 phases and then get pinged for an illegal cleanout! Weege defence was magnificent! Simply not giving an inch!
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Glasgow miss a penalty that would’ve taken them 8 clear! Will that bite them? Don’t think so, Weege are in control now with 6 minutes left. Goosen kicks a penalty dead and Glasgow have the scrum feed back outside the Bulls 22! So stupid!
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Bulls bustle downfield, but concede the penalty! TMO saying hold my beer again. Not sure what for. Nothing in it. Oh. Hang on, that’s at least a penalty. Yellow card! Not sure it makes much difference with 2 minutes left.
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Well done Glasgow!
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I don’t think you could have written a tenser finale to a match. Well done Glasgow!
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5 seconds left. Bulls lineout 5m out. Another penalty. But Glasgow are defending the lineout maul superbly. Held up and GLASGOW ARE THE CHAMPIONS! SUPERB! They absolutely deserved it after being under the pump in Pretoria for the first 20, but the 2nd half was all theirs! Brilliant! Simply brilliant!
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WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!
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Franco should get the freedom of Glasgow for that! We should also tie him up for as long as he wants as coach.
Brilliant!
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That beats the win in Belfast
Fucking brilliant
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Also looking forward to the Guardian articles….
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What Guardian articles? Oh.
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Franco lining up nicely as next Bok coach after Rassie.
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HANDS OFF!!!
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Franco lining up nicely as next Scotland coach after Toonie
FTFY
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Kyle Steyn led from the front and dictated the momentum of that match.
His pack did what was required and to a player they were top notch.
Zander Fagerson played 80 minutes for the third game in as many weeks
BB, break out the good whisky my friend, I’ve got the Talisker for tonight
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I got laughed at by the Bru for predicting a Glasgow win. It would be a shock they said.
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BB – you shoulda put a large bet on at about 35 mins in!
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BB’s not a Tory candidate
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Ba-doom tish! I thought someone would make that connection, but as far as I know, BB didn’t have any insider info….
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Zander Fagersen was immense. As were the rest of the Glasgow pack. And the backs – Tuipoluto and Jones in midfield just got better as the match went on and out wide Steyn and company were superb.
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Thaum – well…..
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Nice to see that the Graun rugby correspondent, Mr P.A. Media managed to fly back from South Africa and post his (or her) report at about 11.20pm.
Christ, even the bloody Daily Record and Scottish Scum, sorry, Sun had reports just after the game ended. And they don’t even know what rugby is!
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How are the Scottish heads this morning? I’m focusing on the Bok match. Cough.
For the URC as a tournament, its a great result that we’ve had not only three different winners so far, but from three different countries too. Just need Benetton or Ospreys to step up to the plate now…
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I’m fine, but if the fitba’ team win tonight and go through (for the first time ever), then I might just be glad that I’m retired and don’t have to work tomorrow!
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Getting into the spirit of things yet, BB?
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The spirits of things, more like.
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Just back from lunch with Daughters 1&2 for belated Father’s Day thing. Will build myself up for tonight later.
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Seen some comments that Jake White was a bit ‘ungracious’ in defeat, with comments like “the refs let away teams win”, obviously meaning Glasgow’s victories in Munster and yesterday. Whereas the Bulls captain seems to have been very gracious and sporting in defeat. Should also say a lot of the comments I’ve seen from Bulls fans (and other URC fans) have also been very gracious and sporting. Apart from one or two. Hell, even the Beeb’s Have Your Say wasn’t particularly toxic!
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I’m not nervous, I’m just bricking it….
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I have it on good authority that ‘Scotland are trying their best’. Not sure what that means in terms of score.
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Neither side playing well. Both sides can play better. Both sides need to or they’ll be out.
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Another mysterious bit of information. I’m not even sure who Scotland are playing, although obviously I could find out if I had the slightest interest in footie. But I still want Scotland to win, as I’m fairly sure they’re not playing an Irish side!
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Oh, Hungary as I reload the Graun page. Are they any good, normally? Pretty sure they don’t have a good rugby team!
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Oh, that’s a kick inna baws.
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Shit. And bugger. And other sweary words. 10 minutes of extra t6ime because of an injury, and Hungary score right at the end to knock us out. The most bloody typical Scottish thing ever.
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Afghanistan beat Bangladesh to knock Australia out of the T20 World Cup! Haha! How brilliant is that! The Proteas now get to choke against the Afghans in the semi to keep up their Scotlandesque run of never having won a knockout match at a cricket World Cup! Then everyone here will fish out the old meme of the Proteas badge, with the flower replaced by an artichoke. Fuck. How depressing.
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BB, saw your comment about Jake White above and had to do a bit of searching – seems he did talk about the ref (for the final) favouring the away sides, mentioning three or four matches, not just the semi and final. It was a couple of minutes out of a 20 minute interview, most of which focused on his players, and how its a young side with plenty of development yet to take place, how good Glasgow were and on his own possible shortcomings – he listed all the major finals he’s lost as a coach and thought there was room for introspection on his part too. He’s always been a straight talker, so bound to cross a few lines here and there, probably regrets it (or not?) in hindsight, but it was a small part of an otherwise long and very honest interview.
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Thanks Deebs. Only a couple of minutes in a 20 minute interview, so OF COURSE that’s the bit that will be taken out of context by media. Anyway, as I said the vast majority of comments I have seen from Bulls fans and other Saffers have been complementary.
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Were any complimentary?
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Deebs – revenge (for the bit about the lads from the capital) is a dish best served cold, as any fule no.
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Reeveng is not in my vocalubary!
That was quite hard to write, actually.
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Just been doing my ‘Bru picks for the U20 World Cup kicking off this weekend,* and I note Scotland aren’t playing. Does Scotland not have an U20 side? Honest question.
*No, I won’t be doing an ATL on it, much to everyone’s relief, as I can’t bullshit my way through it, having even less knowledge of the juniors than other rugby. Close to zero, or even possibly into negative knowledge.
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Deebs, Scotland are in the second tier tournament after losing to Uruguay last time, who then went on to lose to Spain in the final – a team Scotland had thrashed in a warm up before the tournament
We found ourselves in the Trophy competition because we were relegated from the top tier in 2019 when we had a weaker squad. We go through one year of being quite strong when all the lads are 20 years old and some have had training experience with our two pro teams, but when they all get too old we go back to having 18 year olds who get pummelled at this level because “even” Italy have three times the number of clubs and players we have. (it is what it is, I’m not making excuses)
The following year we had a decent squad which included future internationals like Rory Darge, Euan Ashman, Rufus McLean and Ollie Smith, plus others who will be capped eventually like Connor Boyle and Cammy Scott. Of course these guys never got a chance to play in the Trophy comp to get us back up to the top table due to the pandemic.
The U20s is all about the pack, as long as you’ve got a team that can trundle over your opponents you’ll do okay, we’ve got that this year but we are missing a few of the backs that competed in the 6N this year – a team can always do with a bit of fairy dust to sprinkle on top of the orcs up front.
btw, a name to look out for, Freddy Douglas, he’s more Hamish Watson at the age of 18 than Hamish Watson was at the age of 20.
I’ve also heard a lot about a 130kg 18 year old tighthead prop called Ollie Blythe-Lafferty – he’s apparently been making opponents, grown men in their late 20s, wish they were anywhere else in the club game in Scotland. He wasn’t allowed to play in this year’s 6N because he was 17 at the time.
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@deebee
Ireland got to the U20 final last time – although completely blown out of it by France. Expectations are probably high but we’re in fairly tough group with Georgia, Australia and Italy.
Italy ran us close in the 6N, Georgia are usually good at this a level, and Australia – well, they’re never less than talented even if they don’t always show the organisation you’d expect.
My recollection last year was it rained a lot – whether that favoured Ireland or not hard to say. Ireland have a solid pack, decent halves, and good centres. FB Ben O’Connor is from Munster – ex-hurler, big and fast but still makes the odd rick of the recent convert
We’ve another Edogbo – Sean. Not as big as Edwin but only ‘smaller’ by comparison and more dynamic. Captain Evan O’Connell is nephew of Paul O’Connell.
No 10 Jack Murphy is on his way to Ulster (to join his dad) – decent kicker both dead ball and out of hand.
In U20 6N, drew with England and won the rest. England won that crazy match with France and nabbed the title on BP
As Ticht says, a lot relies on the pack – France pretty much brutalised eveyone last year, but had good backs to run in tries through the holes their pack created.
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Thanks folks! Sounds like some lovely rugby in store. The 4N sides have now started an annual comp to try and get some cohesion like the 6N sides have. This year was the first year, so let’s see if it makes a difference. From memory, the Boks and ABs drew in a monsoon, Aus beat the Boks but got humped by the Kiwis, Boks beat Argentina, who battered Australia, can’t remember the Argentina-Kiwi result.
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Toulouse v Bordeaux in 15 minutes and I can’t find it on tele here! Bloody hell, should be a fantastic match!
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Just seen the result. Close game…
Toulouse 59
Bordeaux Begles 3
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36 retiring at the age of 35
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/articles/crgedey0vydo
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That’s just wrong. Surely he could at least be on the subs’ bench until his birthday.
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Why was he called 36 again? I’m sure I heard the reason, but it’s been lost in the mists of our Dearly Departed Former Notablog.
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