Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
@BB – It’s an Irish thing. Twelvetrees – twelve-trees – twelve-threes – 36.
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Considering the size of most of them, it’s very amusing that SA call their U20 team ‘Baby Boks’.
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SA 10, Koen, has a hell of a boot on him. And he can’t half curve a kick on the r-h side.
SA doing a number on Fiji, 24-0 heading towards half time. (the game is on Youtube)
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31-0 to SA at half-time. Boks 13 gets a yellow for a tip tackle, right on the hooter.
Fun game.
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Refit – thanks for that, my usual site didn’t tell me that! But to the mister’s chagrin, Wales v NZ is NOT on YouTube!
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Apparently the Wales match is free on Rugbypass.
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And thanks again!
‘Free’ meaning you give them your email, but he wants to watch it…!
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(He could obviously use a bogus email, but doesn’t….)
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Beautiful running line and try by Welsh 12! His second, apparently. 20-36 with 56 mins gone.
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But now the Welsh 8’s done a tip tackle on the NZ 10 and has gone to the bunker with at least a yellow.
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One of the laws they’re trialling in this tournament is 20-minute red cards, where then the player can be replaced. I think that’s bollocks.
However, some of the other trials, such as 30-second scrums and line-outs, sound like a good idea.
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Why are the Kiwis playing in white jerseys?
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That’s a great try down the blind side by the Kiwis!
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They’re pretending to be the good guys?
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Thauma, on the replacing players for a red, I think it should be distinguished between a deliberate act of foul play and a technical red. Deliberate, obviously no replacement.
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That’s a great try, Wales! Can they get another to narrow the points difference?
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Deebs: kind of a yellow, red and black system? Maybe a bit too complicated.
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World Rugby really need to employ some better video editors. I know we shouldn’t expect to see EVERYTHING that happens, in a highlights package, but jumping from 0-7 on the score board to 13-29 is taking the piss a bit
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As an England supporter, this is bloody terrifying
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Refit, don’t listen to Squidge, he’s a journo looking for clicks. Beating the Kiwis is easy – you just need to be smarter, fitter, better skilled, stronger, tackle better, get up and over the advantage line whilst not leaving space for the little dinks, crossfield kicks or looping passes, or offloads in the tackle, or behind the back; mash their scrum, disrupt their lineout, contest and disrupt their rucks and mauls, don’t give away silly penalties (or any); score points regularly when you have the ball and slip something into their food when nobody’s watching.
Simple.
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Bok side for the 1st Test against Ireland. I’m a bit worried, with only 12 World Cup winners in the starting XV, but there you go, in Rassie we trust. Completely new backline to the one that played Wales a couple of weeks ago, with pensioner le Roux at the back and half-crocked Kolbe and KLA either side of him. Kriel and de Allende provide the Maginot Line in midfield, with Handre Pollard there to admire Faf’s endless box kicks.
Kwagga and PSDT to fight for the scraps that Siya leaves on the table (according to his French owner, he’s fat and unfit and anonymous), with ‘Sous’ and Eben outplayed by the Hairsprays 2nd row (or whichever anonymous Welsh region belched them up). Front row makes Siya look emaciated, but they’ll be okay watching Faf’s box kicks getting run back down the field by Aki and Louw and company.
Bench, you say? Well, a faded Marx (much to the delight of Nigel Farage) being supported by a rookie and dinosaur, with Munster’s most expensive ballboy (soon to be Leinster’s most expensive ballboy) and SA’s most (apparently) overrated 2nd row to trundle on at some point, along with a Bulls backrow taken to the cleaners by bloody Glasgow of all sides! The two backs? Williams will run all day, usually away from his support, whilst Sasha gets a free pass for telling Eddie Jones to fuck off when he tried to poach him for England. Ireland by 13.
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Kwagga Smith, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Salmaan Moerat, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
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Irish XXIII not named yet, but never fear – I shall let you know as soon as I hear! Could this be our year? You’ll find out first here!
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Scotland U20s beat Samoa 123 – 15
We’ve been on the wrong end of some thrashings, but today was a good performance
The pack were excellent
Step 1 complete
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Ticht – wow! That’s some scoreline.
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Thaum, we can be rightfully pissed off at the two tries they scored, twice the same lock got over from a tap penalty on five metres – poor defence on our part and a real thing to work on.
Other than that it’s difficult to analyse a training run like that, they dropped a couple of restarts and the guy I name checked a few days ago, Freddy Douglas, was relatively quiet because his game is all about pilfering opposition ball, but he can’t do that if they don’t have any ball.
To be fair he got a couple off them and showed great pace as a linked player, but our bg ball carriers in the tight five and at 6 and 8 did so much damage it became bullying.
The other guy I name checked, Ollie Blyth-Lafferty, absolutely destroyed their scrum, the Samoan pack was accelerating backwards on their own ball.
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Highlights of the ‘match’ between Scotland and Samoa. Apparently, Samoa even had to borrow shorts from the SRU because not all of their kit made it over from Samoa.
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So. Any rugby on this weekend?
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Other than replays of the Tartan Army slaughtering poor old Samoa?
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Bloody hell. 3 of our players for the game against Canada have a total of 93 caps (Sutherland 30, M Fagerson 44, Steyn 19), the other 20 have a total of 33. Although a few of the players do have a lot of club experience behind them, still a big jump.
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Big – and long – day tomorrow. Friday’s going to be a wash-out.
I think there might be a match or two on though!
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Happy Vote The Bastards Out Day everyone!
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The Wallabies, is a desperate effort to outdo the Tories in both performance and leadership, have named seven debutants in their squad to face Wales, as well as their seventh captain in the last year. Enough to make even Liz Truss’s lettuce wilt!
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Courtesy of the Graun:
Wallabies XV: James Slipper, Matt Faessler, Taniela Tupou, Jeremy Williams, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Liam Wright (capt), Fraser McReight, Rob Valetini, Jake Gordon, Noah Lolesio, Filipo Daugunu, Hunter Paisami, Josh Flook, Andrew Kellaway, Tom Wright.
Replacements: Billy Pollard, Isaac Kailea, Allan Alaalatoa, Angus Blyth, Charlie Cale, Tate McDermott, Tom Lynagh, Dylan Pietsch.
Wales XV: Liam Williams, Josh Hathaway, Owen Watkin, Mason Grady, Rio Dyer, Ben Thomas, Ellis Bevan, Aaron Wainwright, Tommy Reffell, Taine Plumtree, Dafydd Jenkins, Christ Tshiunza, Archie Griffin, Dewi Lake (capt), Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: Evan Lloyd, Kemsley Mathias, Harri O’Connor, Cory Hill, James Botham, Kieran Hardy, Sam Costelow, Nick Tompkins.
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Who’s winning?
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Again no Ulstermen. SA by 450.
Ireland (v South Africa):
Player/Club/Province/Caps
Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster)(64)
Replacements:
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Ireland just beat Georgia 22-16 in the U20 World Cup, after trailing until the 80th minute. Only saw bits and pieces, but until the 70th minute the Georgians were knocking the Irish around like 9-pins, but ran out of puff – quite dramatically – to let Ireland back into it. Great work by Ireland to not give up and keep at it right to the death!
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France 8-0 up over New Zealand after 20 minutes.
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That’s a very strong Republic of Ireland side! Thank fuck we’re not playing the whole of Ireland!
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France with a penalty just to the right of the posts, 30 yards out and banged over! 11-0 and that’s half time.
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Missed the 2nd half, and just tuned in to the SA-Arg match and the Pumitas have hammered the Baby Boks, 31-12, a last minute try making the score a wee bit more respectable.
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Apparently the Kiwis won 27-26. Quite a turnaround in the 2nd half! Italy beat Australia 17-12 compounding the miserable chunder down under.
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True story.
Back in the day when social media didn’t exist, but we had this new-fangled email thing, I received a spreadsheet, apparently created by an Australian, that calculated your blood-alcohol level according to your weight and what you’d had to drink.
It included the option of a ‘tactical chunder’.
I thought that meant food.
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Some of those Melbourne ‘restaurants’ they feature in snobby lifestyle programmes produce stuff not looking remarkably different.
And whilst Italy’s juniors celebrate, the big boys got beaten by Samoa in Apia! 33-25 in the end. Quite a scalp for the Samoans, who haven’t produced a result like this since just the western part pumped Wales.
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Oh, and Happy Labour Day to all of you in the UK! Sensible choices for a prosperous future, unlike those rightwing nutjobs on the mainland.
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Thank you, Deebee! I did stay up all night….
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I ‘only’ made until 4am. Was hoping to see Moggy and Lettuce Truss lose, but decided sleep was better than watching them.
Sadly not enough of them lost seats.
SNP also got hammered. That’ll teach them to use stamps!
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Moggy
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That photo of Reese-Mogg is priceless! He clearly would like to be anywhere else on the planet!
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Time for NZ v Eng. We haven’t conceded inside 2 mins, so I’ll take that as a moral victory.
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got stream refit ??
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