Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
NZ spoil and England lineout and win a scrum, but the NZ tight-head collapses and Eng get a penalty inside the NZ half.
Smith hooks it wide, still 0-0.
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I’m watching here: https://www.vipbox.lc/rugby/new-zealand-vs-england-1-live
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Looks like NZ have sorted their scrum out and just drive straight through Eng. Barrett (12) puts it in the corner, but NZ knock-on after the lineout. Eng scrum on their own line. 12mins.
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Just started watching with Kiwi commentary. England bollix a lineout and knock on “All Blacks have turned it over!” New Zealnd pick and drive and knock it on “All Blacks make a mistake!”
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DMac puts in a cross kick and the wife-beater scores in the corner.
5-0 16mins
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Marler crocked and Baxter replaces him.
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England appear to have a foetus at prop now.
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Refit, Lomax and de Groot are very good props and relatively young too (28 and 25), and Barrett and the returning Tuipolotu add some good heft in the 2nd row. Marler seems to have had enough, with what looks like Dan Cole’s grandson on the park inside 20 minutes.
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Mitchell with a lovely break and England may have scored from the resulting lineout!
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Just to clarify, Lomax and de Groot are very good props. No idea how Refit would go in thr front row.
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Lawrence puts a lovely grubber into the corner and DMac is forced into touch, after collecting the ball. England fake a maul, Baxter gets close and then Maro drives over himself.
5-7 22mins.
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5-7! Super Maro barges over and Smith adds the extras!
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I played L-H at school, but I think if I tried that now, I would be ground into a fine paste.
Ooh, J Barrett almost takes Reece’s head off jumping for a high ball. Shame he didn’t make proper contact.
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Oh, that was horribly easy for NZ. Perofeta steps around Earl(?) and charges into the Eng 22. Wide pass out to Savea on the wing and he scores.
McKenzie misses the conversion. 10-7 26mins.
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I have to say, I do like this NZ kit. The retro collars are a nice touch.
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England being very sporting here, standing back and admiring Mark Telea’s footwork. 10-7 Kiwis after another unconverted try. England defence is patchy, to say the least.
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Blimey, wiziwig worked.
ENgland seem to be very keen to kick the ball away to give the ABs a chance to show off their fancy footwork.
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The contrast if the coaches boxes is quite amusing. Robertson has about 6 people around him, looking at screens. England’s is just Borthwick and Wigglesworth.
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Fantastic finish to the half for England. I was about to write that their rush defence is being picked off by the Kiwis with delayed passes and an uncertain line, but they then defended beautifully for 20-odd phases, pushing NZ back and eventually winning a penalty at the breakdown. Smith slots and it’s 10 apiece at oranges!
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Moral victory, great defence by England, Lawrence being a beast at the breakdown. They may well run out of puff tho if they keep giving ball away .
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Well, England don’t have any DV perps in their team (AFAIK), so definitely the moral victory SBT.
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dv perp?
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That the fuck is going on with Scott Robertson’s hair parting?
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Sevu Reece was arrested for beating his wife, but let off by a judge, because going to jail would hurt his career. That’s why Connacht scrapped his contract a few years back.
https://www.scotsman.com/sport/rugby-union/all-blacks-pick-winger-charged-with-injuring-his-wife-in-drunken-assault-1412915
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Interesting call: Kiwi scrum seemed to have the upper hand, he called a couple of times for them to use it and when the scrum wheeled, he penalised them. Smith lines it up, but pulls a fairly easy kick wide.
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England picking some fantastic lines, particularly by the forwards. They get up to the NZ line, Maro and Earl almost getting there, before Smith throws it wide to Feyi-Waboso who scores.
10-15 49mins.
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Great start to the 2nd half by England! They’ve kept the Kiwis pinned in their own half and then go through some good phase play – Martin and C-S to the fore – and eventually F-W goes over in acres of space. Smith misses again, so 10-15 it is.
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Stupid New Zealand kicking the ball away to Englands back three.
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Curry on for Cunningham-South, who’s been excellent. Beaudie on at 15, both Kiwi props replaced.
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NZ going full Barrett, all 3 brothers on the pitch.
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Curry sealing off and Kiwis take the 3. 13-15. This is a helluva scrap!
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St Maro steals the lineout (bless him) and Earl makes good ground before Smith hammers it downfield and a Barrett boots it out. 45m gain for England! Ben Earl then penalised for a tackle off the ball. He’s gonna have a beauty of a shiner tomorrow!
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Smith just trying a bit too much and his dink over the top is too far, allowing the Kiwis to boot them 40m back. Again the Kiwis make judicious use of the boot and it’s their turn to apply pressure. They’ve got a penalty in front and DMac lines it up. Over! 16-15 and F Smith replaces M Smith for the last 15.
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Smith for Smith, Finn replacing Marcus at 10 for England.
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A bit of kicking tennis which Finn Smith eventually wins. England feed outside the Kiwi 22. Maul goes down and turned over. Not sure legally, mind!
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Bloody hell, Lienert-Brown on for Barrett (J). Fair bit of depth on the NZ bench, eh?
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Furbank has been excellent tonight.
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Kiwi scrum splatters England. Kiwis dummy throw at the lineout and England send it downfield. Kiwis have definitely won the territory battle since B Barrett came on. Christie’s box kicks have also been pinpoint, putting England on the back foot.
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Oops, DMac takes too long over a kick and Spencer just runs over and picks up the ball.
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Another Kiwi penalty in a kickable position and DMac is timed out! Well! That wiped the smile off his face! Into the last minute and England get a penalty from a messy scrum. Or maul. Hooter sounds as England go through the phases but they’re penalised again! And that’ll be that!
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NZ make a mess of the resulting scrum. Christie does well to tackle Spencer, but the 2nd man in if off his feet and it’s an Eng pen. They boot it down field for a lineout and the ball comas back into play as the hooter goes.
England move the ball in field, but NZ keep driving them back in the tackle, until Vaai wins a penalty and DMac puts the ball out.
NZ win 16-15. Hell of a match.
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Good game, opportunity missed I think.
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That was tight! Lots of pastries for England – loosies were good carrying, defence good after some iffy moments in the first 20, never gave up, lineout good, Furbank excellent. Scrum is a mess though. Dan Cole does nothing outside of of scrums and not much more there. Is there nobody better?
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Thought Mitchell was very good at nine, both with the boot and some of his sniping runs, not convinced by Marcus Smith – I can’t remember the England backs ever looking particularly threatening ball in hand from set pieces or phase play. Outside backs largely anonymous on attack, really. Some good continuity and phase play but never really got through or around the Kiwi defence.
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Look Deebee, it’s part of the contract with the RFU, that England have to have at least one man-baby in the team at any time (foetuses don’t count), so Cole isn’t going anywhere for the foreseeable future.
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Refit
I’ve not been able to get a vipbox link to work for ages, all I get is count down timer which stalls at one second to go and that’s the end of it
What am I doing wrong?
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You’re right he isn’t going anywhere! I think he’s still dithering about where a ruck was an hour ago. The Joe Biden of props.
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Ah, I think I’ve got it. Firefox didn’t work, Edge did
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Ticht – yeah, I watch VIP on my tablet and it works every time, but I have to keep swapping around browsers on my laptop to find one that shows a video. Pain in the proverbial.
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C’mon Wales!
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