Pink Floyd said it best when they penned the mighty ‘Breathe’ on the Dark Side of the Moon and clearly had this rugby season in mind:
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave, but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground
For long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be
They then went on to something about run rabbit run, shamelessly appropriated by Tom Hanks in one of the most boring movies of all time, but the essence of the song could just about sum up the last couple of weeks of rugby and the next few to come. A quick disclaimer, I have no idea what the status of the Top 14 is, or even if they’ve finished last season yet, so in the interests of idle speculation, I’ll stick to the other two leagues, English first.
I’ve got home wins for both in the English semis, for no other reason than winning away is hard. Sale may have something to say about that, but I don’t think Sarries will. Northampton and Sarries have both been a bit iffy recently, with the Saints losing to Bath and Quins in the last month, but crucially, having the better of Sarries in their last meeting in late March. Sarries lost to Bath last weekend, pushing them below Sale into fourth, ending a three-match winning streak, with two of those on the road, at Bristol and Bath. So much for difficulty in winning away. Still, Saints’ only loss at home this season was in the second week, a narrow reverse to the Bears.
Bath versus Sale could go either way – Sale have emerged as the form side of the last few weeks, on a six-match winning streak, including the last match at Sarries, so they’re in a very good spot. Bath, though, have only lost twice at home this season, three- and one-point reverses, suggesting nobody bosses them at The Rec. Sale can do it, may well do it, but I had a fabulous high tea at the hotel adjacent to the Roman Baths, so I’m backing Bath to win a nailbiter!
Last round of league matches in the URC and it’s tight, very tight, almost – almost too tight. At the top of the pile, the Bulls will looking for five points in Durban to finish in the top two – or even top, if Ulster are able to beat current log leaders and form side Munster. That should be a terrific match, with Munster obviously wanting to finish in pole position, but Ulster similarly wanting to move above the Stormers and avoid a possible trip to South Africa if the Bulls falter in Durban. Which Leinster will pitch up this weekend? Can Cullen pick them up from the heartbreak of last weekend’s loss? I can’t see them losing to Connacht at home, but the bonus point comes into play, because Glasgow will surely get the full house against Zebre.
So, by my estimation, Glasgow will sit on 65 points come Saturday, with Leinster on 65 or 64, meaning Munster and the Bulls both need to win to regain those top two spots (I know, Munster could do it with a draw and try BP, but let’s not get too pedantic about this). I fancy Munster to stay on a roll (sorry boss), and the Bulls to win in Durban, but possibly without the BP. That may leave 3 sides on 65 trailing Munster. Wins would be the same (13 each), so then down to points difference. At the moment, the Bulls are best (+194), with Leinster 16 behind (+178) and Glasgow, courtesy of their mauling in the Lion’s Den, 40 behind (+154).
Will Glasgow be able to beat Zebre by more than 40 points to put the pressure back on the Bulls? Possibly, if they can get back on track after two bruising losses in South Africa. Leinster to win by at least 18 to put the pressure on the Bulls? Don’t think so – the Irish derbies are generally pretty tight affairs. The Bulls could, if the mood takes them, paste the Sharks, but equally the Sharks are likely to throw everything into it as a last hurrah in a spotty season in front of their home fans. Or not. If the Lions win in Cape Town (huge if, but not impossible), then one of Benneton or Edinburgh are out of the comp and I’d favour the Italians to prevail at home.
Then it’s a question of bonus points – who will finish 7th and get the last Big Cup Berth for next season? Ulster could go to 58 and fifth with a BP win, but more realistically, desperately need a bonus point to avoid the seventh/eighth place lottery and hope that neither of Benneton nor Edinburgh manage the full five pointer. That’ll keep them in 6th place. An Edinburgh win with a BP could lift them to fifth – if the Stormers get nothing from their home match with the Lions and Ulster likewise don’t win (or draw with BP etc). Benneton need a BP win to get a top six finish, but would rely on Ulster getting nothing (and possibly getting hammered in the process). Finally, the Lions could theoretically finish sixth, if they win with a BP and those above them don’t (Edinburgh and Benneton, one of whom is potentially out after their clash). With eight try bonus points, they have every chance, even if the Stormers are hot favourites at home. And then, of course, a win for Connacht and neither the Lions nor Benneton getting a point, would see them pip those two to eight place and the last QF spot.
All of which is a very long-winded way of saying hold onto your seats this weekend, the ride could be bumpy or a helluva lot of fun, depending on where the ball bounces and the dust settles. Bring it on!
Breathing exercises by Deebee7
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 31st May
| Glasgow v Zebre | 19:35 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Leinster v Connacht | 19:35 | TG4 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Northampton v Saracens | 19:45 | TNT Sports 1 |
Saturday 1st June
| Stormers v Lions | 12:45 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Treviso v Edinburgh | 13:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Scarlets v Dragons | 15:00 | S4C / iPlayer / PremierPlayer |
| Sharks v Bulls | 15:10 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Bath v Sale | 15:30 | TNT Sports 2 |
| Munster v Ulster | 17:15 | RTÉ2 / Premier Sports 1 |
| Cardiff v Ospreys | 17:30 | BBC2 Wales / PremierPlayer |
Sunday 2nd June
| Toulon v Clermont | 17:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
| Toulouse v La Rochelle | 20:00 | Premier Sports 1 |
Ovally Balls 
0-3 Wales bossing it!
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First blood to Wales. Slipper forgets to use his arms in a tackle and Thomas kicks a tricky penalty from wide-left.
0-3 3mins.
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Aus straight back into it. 3-3
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The lead doesn’t last long, Lolesio putting the ball over from in front of the posts, after Liambility is pinged in a tackle.
3-3 6mins
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For a touch of nostalgia, Thomas JD2’s the ball straight into touch.
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Great touch finder by Wales! Pity it was a pass. Aus attacking with intent and another penalty inside the Welsh 22. Going for posts again, with the chance to equal their score the last time the two sides met. Missed! How?
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Wales mullered in the scrum there
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Welsh scrum marmalized by the butterbean eight! No mistake this time. 6-3
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Refit, I inherited an old MacBook Pro when The Middle One upgraded for their art projects. I keep my clunky old windows laptop with a vpn for sports streaming in case there are any nasties on the sites – I don’t do any banking or anything “important” on that machine
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Uh-oh, Wales already on a penalty warning from the ref.
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It’s a bit of a shame when even Australia are looking to high BMI it over the line – I always liked their attacking lines across the backs
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Tupou with the first try. Aus get to the Wales line and drive it up about 500 times, before the prop squeezes over the line. Lolesio kicks the conversion. 13-3 after 21mins.
Wales were pinged for offside during the build-up to the try and a yellow is shown.
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Crikey, Aus power over for a try, converted and they’re 13-3 up after the first quarter. Wales have already conceded 7 penalties by my count. Wobblies concede a third and Wales kick to the corner. Welshman in the bin too. Checking for a possible Welsh try… nope, knocked on.
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Ooh, I think it could have been argued that Bevan knocked that ball backwards into Kellaway, but it was judged knocked on.
Doesn’t matter though, Wales set a maul in the far corner. McReight is judged to have collapsed the maul. He gets a yellow and Wales a penalty try.
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Uncle Joe is not looking happy in the coaches box.
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Penalty try! And a Wobbly in the bin! 13-10.
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Refit, does uncle Joe know where he is?
I also thought Bevan knocked the ball back into the defender. They scored anyway! #Justice4Wales
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Welsh setpiece is pish. Scrum getting done and lineout a lottery.
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Right off to a birthday lunch. Catch you all later!
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Is it a free lunch Deebee?
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On that showing the Lions are going to batter Australia next year
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Well we’ve got a Labour government and it doesn’t appear to be the 1970s. The Boys’ verdict seems to be ‘a bit like 1997 only probably worse’ and who’s to say they’re wrong?
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CMW, I fear it’s not going to be easy for the new government, they’ve been left with a scorched earth, scorched, salted and poisoned.
Just not being corrupt would be a huge improvement on what has gone on in the past 14 years.
Early signs are promising though, appointing people to offices where their experiences and expertise could prove useful – this might catch on!
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@Ticht – I was only really reflecting on their influence on Welsh rugby. And it would be a brave man who was prepared to say we’ll manage to get our act together by the back end of Starmer’s second term (which is how it went with Blair).
I’m sure they will be much less corrupt and more competent than the Tories (though still a bit corrupt and sometimes incompetent). And election results over the last few years suggest that that is as much change as the voters that count are prepared to stomach. My expectations don’t go much beyond this as they’ve promised very little and most of the leadership preferred the country to get Johnsonned than to play a part in any real change. It’s possible Starmer will do far more than he’s prepared to tell anyone but I’m very sceptical. Still celebrated the demise of the Conservatives (and for that matter voted Labour) of course.
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Don’t hold your breath over the ‘competence’ bit
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@Refit – the bar is low though. Streeting makes my skin crawl, but I imagine he will at least be taking it seriously. Five predecessors in the last three years rather suggests the other lot weren’t. Neither does the last person to do it for any length of time being Matt Hancock.
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Well, that didn’t take long. Arendse scores inside 3 mins.
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Kolisi did look particularly fat & slow as he gave the try-scoring pass.
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Good defence by SA, Ireland driving to the line for a good couple of minutes, before they knock on. Then Mbonambi and Porter square up in the aftermath and the ref lays down the law to POM and Kolisi. SA clear their lines from the resulting scrum.
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PSdT in full flight, is quite the sight. Cute dummy, then pass to Kolbe was nice.
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Back from lunch! No, not free. Boks seem to be on top after 25 minutes, but a long way to go.
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Not sure what Bongi did wrong there? Not sure how Crowley cocked that kick up?
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Ooh, that was a special try. Fancy handling, fancy footwork, a cracking offload and a score on day-boo for Osborne.
13-8 with 4 mins left in the half.
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James Lowe does superbly there after an extended period of pressure to get the ball away whilst in the air for a try by (?) in the corner. 13-8 with the extras missed
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Half time. 13-8. Been pretty hard and unrelenting, defence over attack so far.
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Ooh, lovely dive-pass from a ruck, by POM, for Crowley to clear the Irish lines.
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L’il Nige being a spoil sport for a wonderful Lowe try, spotting Kelleher kicking the ball while he was on the floor in a ruck.
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Oof, Casey knocked out by his head hitting the floor, after being tackled by Snyman.
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Ooh, SA will finish the game with 14 men – Arendse binned for offside, after several SA infringements.
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Ireland choose a tap & charge. Doris gets over the line. Ref rules “held up” on field, it’s going to the TMO…still no try.
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Game’s not dead yet. Bealham gets the ball no half-way, after the kick-off. He pops it inside to Kelleher, who bursts through a huge gap. He passes to Murray, who has an easy run-in, under the posts.
20-15 with 5 to play.
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Lowe knocks the ball on from the restart and it’s a SA scrum in the far corner. SA drive Ireland backwards and it’s a penalty try, with Kelleher going to the bin.
27-15 78mins.
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Ireland not dead and buried. They secure the ball after the restart and it goes wide to Lowe. He stands up in the tackle and offloads to Baird, who sores in the corner. The conversion is missed.
27-20. 79mins.
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Ireland are driven back after the restart and the ref spots a knock on. The final whistle is blown.
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I imagine Thaum, Deebee and Trisk are a mess of nerves after that.
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That could’ve gone either way. The odd call and bounce of the ball the difference. Delighted for the boys, but next week will be even harder.
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Refit, it was nailbiting! Brilliant game and delighted! Thought the Boks were marginally better (tiny margins) overall, but again, the odd bounce of the ball and it could’ve been different.
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Did not see the match as didn’t feel like paying for Sky. Finally found a bit of commentary on RTÉ, but they annoyingly kept switching to other things in the middle of exciting bits.
Told you we’d lose. No Ulstermen.
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Is it your birthday, Deebee? I know someone’s is around now (not counting mine, which is tomorrow).
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Mine was yesterday.
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