It’s the second weekend of the Six Nations, and this is where things get (even more) interesting!
Following on from his (unexpected, even by him) success last week, Predict-A-Bear is back! This time in full Technicolor! And with lots of exclamation marks!!!!
First up is Italy vs Wales. Italy looked decent in places last week despite losing. They’ll be hoping that being back home will give them a boost. Although they haven’t beaten Wales in Rome since 2007, but that was a very different Wales. Wales have Faletau back (again) and yet another centre partnership facing up to one of the best partnerships in the tournament in Brexoncello (sorry, not sorry). Predict-A-Bear is going for:
‘Second game on Saturday is England vs France. The Big One! Le Crunch! Even though it isn’t. Not this weekend. Anyway, England have an abundance of Smiths, plus a Willis (but perhaps not the correct one) and a large number of Saints in the backline. France have added a Jalibert and some guy called Penaud on the wing. England will have a good first half and not so good second half. France will have a good first half and a better second half.
Predict-A-Bear is going for:
And that’s it for this weekend!
What do you mean there’s a game on Sunday!? You mean I’ve got to preview it too?
Bugger.
Here goes then (and this is being AI’d before the teams come out). Scotland HAVE to beat Ireland. We haven’t since 2017. Ireland were (slightly) sub-par in Autumn. They have rather annoyingly got better since then (but they did only play England last week). Scotland have lost our captain (and all-round genius) Sione, plus the very underestimated Scott Cummings for the whole tournament. Toonie’s Tombola came up with Dave Cherry last week, and he actually played well! So expect him to be out of the 23 or something weird. Injuries permitting, the only change I would make is Jordan in for McDowall. Sadly, I think the James Lowe Smirk will be in evidence a lot come Sunday evening. Can’t even do the “heart says one thing, head says the other” result – mainly because P-A-B doesn’t have a heart….
Still, Predict-A-Bear is going for:
Predict-A-Bear’s prognostications transcribed by BorderBoy.
Onna telly this weekend
Showing matches that are televised in the UK and Ireland or on popular subscription services. Bold indicates that it’s on a free to view channel. Times are in the UK zone, so adjust as necessary.
Friday 7th February
| Italy v Wales (U20s) | 19:15 | S4C, iPlayer |
| England v France (U20s) | 20:00 | iPlayer |
Saturday 8th February
| Stormers v Bulls | 12:00 | Premier Sports 2 |
| Italy v Wales | 14:15 | ITV1, S4C, STV |
| England v France | 16:45 | STV, ITV1 |
| Scotland v Ireland (U20s) | 19:45 | iPlayer, RTÉ2 |
Sunday 9th February
| Scotland v Ireland | 15:00 | BBC1, iPlayer, RTÉ2 |
Ovally Balls 
England are kinda where the Boks were a few years ago – not trusting themselves to defend a lead playing positive rugby. It’s one of the things Rassie and Co have managed to change (albeit not always) and give the guys the freedom and confidence to keep going to the end.
France, what can you say? Pretty frightening! From a Saffer persepctive, if I may, 2025 is shaping up to be a watershed year: a lot of our 2023 and 2024 guys are suffering from breakdowns of various sorts, or getting decidely long in the tooth. We’ve got 2 Tests away against the ABs (including Eden Park), and away to France and Ireland in November. I think those Tests will go a long way to deciding which players are brough in and which don’t make the final 18-month cycle to 2027.
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Didn’t really catch much of the England/Scotland game – save to say Scotland will know that got away. Not sure what England were trying – well, off-ball worked for them but another day it ends up 21-16…..
I suppose you could say Ireland did similar – kicked long, and generated penalties. (Could have had another try if Hansen passed to Sheehan)
Italy and France – I didn’t think Italy played poorly, they scored 3 great tries. It was one of those days that everything (or almost everything) went right.
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I’m going to stick my neck out and say Italy could have defended a little better as 73 points is an awful lot.
By and large though I think they have a similar problem to Scotland in that their improvement has coincided (even more so in Italy’s case than Scotland’s) with the standard of the two best teams in the tournament being through the roof. We don’t normally have two 6N teams at more or less the same level as NZ and SA and that’s essentially the case just now and over the last few seasons.
There might be some comfort in how teams have previously come back from having record scores put on them. The most Wales have shipped in the Championship is I think 60 against England in 1998. Alan Bateman scored two great tries before it all went wrong so some similarity to yesterday’s game and Wales of course beat England at Wembley the following year.
England’s worst I imagine is the France game two years ago and they beat them the other week. I’d guess Scotland’s was at Twickenham in 2017 and they beat England the following season too.
On the downside Italy’s record points against was against England in 2001 and they still haven’t beaten them yet, but they get another shot in a couple of weeks’ time!
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CMW, Wales conceded 96 points at Loftus in June 1998 and went on to beat the Boks in November 1999, so turnarounds are entirely possible. It does need the blazers in Wales to admit that there’s more to it than just hiring and firing coaches, though! A strong Wales is good for rugby, not in the sense that without Wales, the game will die, etc etc, but it gives some lovely needle to the 6N and indeed to matches with the Kiwis, Aussies and Boks.
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Kitshoff has retired
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@Deebee – Wales also lost 51-0 to France in the Five Nations in 98 (I think our biggest Championship loss as opposed to points conceded) and won the following year in Paris in one of the best games anyone will ever see. So three big turnarounds 98-99. The SA one may be the biggest in terms of points, but the Championship ones were our first team which that wasn’t anywhere close to being. Of course it was our first ever win against the Boks although perhaps more was made of that than maybe should have been as of course there weren’t many games amateur era (and we didn’t play them at all after 1970).
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Refit – Kitshoff was a legend, on and off the field, a true rugby man. I know Thauma doesn’t rate him from his time at Ulster, but he was one of the great looseheads in SA rugby, probably up there with Os Durant and Beast Mtawarira (and now Ox Nche) in the modern era.
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Sounds like Kitshoff had a pretty awful injury. Always seemed like a tremendous player to me.
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Yeah, he crocked himself in a Currie Cup match and was a couple of millimetres from death or permanent disability. I’m really happy he’s come through okay and apparently there are plans to use him within the Stormers structures in a coaching and mentoring role.
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I remember when Kitshoff broke through and became my favourite player in the U20s – it doesn’t seem that long ago.
The Kitshoff who played for Ulster was a shadow of the guy who won the Rugby World Cup twice and featured in a winning series against the B&I Lions.
Good luck to him for whatever comes next.
I liked how he looked like the boy on the cover of Mad magazine
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A highlight reel
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Alfred E Neumann? Haha! Definite resemblance! As a teen, Kitshoff underwent strength tests to prove he could play senior rugby and sailed through. You wonder in hindsight if that was a mistake. Propping against blokes twice your age with that amount of technique and experience can’t have done him any good.
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Refit, always remember Kitshoff being unmovable over thr ball – and reading his steals superbly – but I’d forgotten how good a ball carrier he was in the tight, and the loose for that matter. The Spicy Plum!
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Felix Jones back to the Boks as assistant coach.
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More retirements
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Lots of activity – O’Mahony and Murray leaving was expected. Clayton McMillan wasn’t really expected – there’d been chat about Lancaster and McCall and even Rennie or Leon McDonald
But apparently, McMillan was over the AB XV that played in Thomond in November last. Maybe Nankivell said a good word…
Elsewhere Hackman gone ….and my acquaintance Henry Kelly
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my acquaintance Henry Kelly
I used to write the Qs (or at least some of them) for Going for Gold
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@Trisk – apparently Going for Gold is something you and Hans Zimmer have in common – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn04y7dg68ko.
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Going for Gold is something you and Hans Zimmer have in common
Frame it!
Sorry, here all week, try the veal etc etc. A lot of experience Ireland are losing there, and with JG-P being 33 himself, what are stocks like in the glorious 9 position? Casey I know, who’s next in line?
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Yeah, it’s always been amusing to see Zimmer’s name attached to huge movies now
He’s come a long way …. not sure about Sandy McLelland though….
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Casey I know, who’s next in line?
@deebee
Devine at Connacht is highly rated since U20s, though Ben Murphy also Connacht has featured a lot this season. Blade is probably not a name for the future.
Leinster have Gunne – we’ll skip over Luke McGrath like Blade.
Similar in Ulster – skip over Cooney and the leading candidate is Doak. Not sure he’s a good fit with how Ireland currently want to play – more in Murray style than the Gibson Park / Casey “hurry up mode”.
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Wow. Edinburgh 29-7 up against Munster in Cork! Not sure who’ll be more surprised, Ticht or Trisk.
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Baby Quins doing a bit of a number on Baby Bath. 3 tries inside 15 mins. Bath have pulled a couple back, but are 28-14 at half time.
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I make that 6 scrum penalties against Munster but no card
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Ref: Hamish, stop it: I’m watching you guys.
But that doesn’t stop Embra from scoring again!
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Bath have scored twice at the start of the second half and would be equal, if they could kick their conversions. 26-28 58mins
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7 scrum penalties against Munster and still counting
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Quins seem to have given up and Bath score a 5th try to take the lead.
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Yellow card for Edinburgh of course – rightly, but how the fuck have Munster still got 15 on the park after so many scrum penalties and other penalties in the 22?
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A 6th try to Bath, tight in the corner, and they’re leading 39-28 with 6 mins to play.
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Edinburgh win on the road shocker, but gift Munster an undeserved 2 league points at the end – they are an immediate competitor and that could be very costly
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8 scrum penalties apparently – even Zebo thinks there should have been a card
That could have huge repercussions at the end of the season
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Lions score early against the Globetrotter Sharks! 7-0 at a blustery and wet Ellis Park.
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14-0 after 15 minutes! Another penalty against the Sharks and Lions kick for the corner and bash over.
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19-0 after Edwill van der Merwe scythes through the Sharks defence! Conversion missed (and a penalty earlier). Half time. Frankly the Sharks haven’t looked like scoring yet. C’mon the Lions!
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24-0 Lions! I missed the start of the 2nd half making a fire
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31-0! I can’t spake! Both sides good value for their points.
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Some stunning hands in the wet conditions and the Lions are under the posts again! 38-0! When we play like this it’s stunning!
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Lions have gone to sleep and gifted the Sharks two sympathy tries – 38-14 final score.
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Bulls-Stormers delayed by a downpour and lightning.
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Ulster have squeaked a win at home over the Scarlets.
Got back to civilisation yesterday. Whew!
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Well done Glasgow. A chance to consolidate second place and you blew it against the Ospreys.
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Thaum, I assume you are referring to the madness that is happening in Las Vegas, where 10K + Aussie NRL fans are partying for the season opening double header with Canberra, Auckland, Penrith and Cronulla, who will attempt to win friends and influence people to grow the worldwide rugby league brand ?
It would be interesting to know how the trip went, hope pops OK.
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Real Rugby Update
Dunbar beat Hawick.
Head thumping
Update ends.
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SBT – Dad is doing well now, thanks.
It’s very weird to walk up to a shop door and see a sign that says, ‘No concealable weapons allowed’. Also a PA announcement at the airport that your firearms must go in checked luggage and cannot be put in your hand luggage.
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Handre Pollard back to the Bulls next year – 10 has been a real area of weakness for the Bulls in the last couple of seasons, so he should make a major impact there.
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Some success at the weekend – U18s got through to the semi final of the development cup (for clubs ranked 9-16 in Munster) beating old rivals Corca Dhuibhne on first try after a draw
Number 1 and number 2 sons started together for first time at this age group.
Elder at played 15, where he does a fair Mike Brown impression – carry hard and then start a row with whoever is to hand. Has been playing 10 – but an injury to our usual fullback (cut his hand at woodwork) meant a reshuffle – our normal 13 moved 10. He’s a very good player but 13 suits him more, and there’s a little more space to work in.
Middle son came in on the wing – missed Sept to mid-Jan with a broken collar bone. Didn’t get many chances to shine but defensively he’s very good – made all his tackles. Next year, he’s probably playing 10 too. (they don’t get it from me – I was an old school 7 – “chase the ball”)
Match ended at 18-18, but as tries were equal and we’d gotten the first one – we qualified. And we were on receiving end against same opposition 2 years ago – so no sympathy :)
Last year U18.5s got to last 8 – so a tier above but that was with an ‘older’ team (mainly U18s/U18.5s) – 2nd tier not too bad with a pack mainly of U17s
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Munster on Friday – 1st half was a disaster. I saw 1st try – 7-3 up, then went off to pick up number 3 son from badminton practice – came back to see 29-7 (insert Munch’s “the scream” emoji)
Second half was better. McCarthy had a bit of a ‘mare defensively – 14 points given away.
Scrum was a disaster but with Jager injured, and Salanoa very slow to return from surgery after 2022-23 season – we are left with 2 experienced THs who are 35-36 years old respectively. LH stocks are also weak – Loughman been out since autumn, Kilcoyne long term injured, Wycherley also missed a chunk of time – to the extent that Munster got Bleuler a joker to cover for 3 months.
Seems like Munster had requested as far back as van Graan to get NIQs in the front row – but Nucifora (rumour has it ) dithered and flip-flopped, so they’ve struggled along with older players and youth – missing that second tier of experienced FRs. Seems like Leinster getting Slimani has changed a few minds about the worth of an experienced NIQ FR to allow younger IQ FR players to develop.
Injuries as a whole have been an issue – not just numbers but length of time to recuperate. IRFU have sent in a squad to monitor/review and looks like wholesale changes will follow.
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Trisk, Dian Bleuler played a smattering of matches in SA at Super/URC level – one for the Stormers against the B&I Lions (when they put out a largely second string team) and 13 matches for the Sharks before heading over to Munster. I must say though, he’s quite the points machine over there – 10 points in 7 matches so far, compared with 5 in 32 appearances here.
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Yeah, Bleuler was well regarded (afaik)
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