Six Nations Preview: Scotland and France

SCOTLAND: Ivanhalfback (nae, not really)

2019 was a sub-optimal year for the national team, comprising a pretty crappy Six Nations, followed by an abject failure to get out of the group at the World Cup (which had been a fear of this correspondent for a while). This on the back of a promising couple of years of third place in the 6N and some notable scalpings of Australia, and so nearly the ABs. So, a distinct downturn in fortunes.

Coaching Team

Toonie is still in place having been given the benefit of the doubt after Japan, albeit with a slightly re-vamped supporting team, including Steve Tandy to shore up a distinctly porous defence. Forwards coach Danny Wilson will stay in place till the summer until he takes over at Glasgow. He came with a decent rep but forward play has gone backwards since the Norn Gibbons thieved McFarland.

What ‘they’ are saying

Lunatic Fringe: Toonie oot! Catastrophe! Dodson! Money! Vern woulda won the world cup! Wurr Doommmed!! *froth* *froth*

Average Fan: Townsend really needs to turn things around, another bad 6N and his coat will be on a distinctly shoogly peg.

There has been a fair bit of angst about letting Big Vern go too early, but that ship has well and truly sailed. The fact remains that, after a couple of promising years, there was a complete failure on the biggest stage with a supposedly strong squad. The team looked predictable in attack with a leaky defence, and the much-vaunted fitness looked distinctly absent. Much of this has to land at the coaching team’s door; the question is, can they learn and turn it around? They seemed worryingly short of ideas and explanations last year.

Squad

LH Prop: Bhatti, Dell, Sutherland

Well, they are all fit & play pro rugby. Dell has been the first choice, and is probably the front runner. Not the strongest in the scrum but handy in the loose, although he has not been seeing significant game time for L’Irish. Bhatti has shown flashes of quality in recent years, but is not a regular club starter. Sutherland looked very good a few years ago before suffering bad injury, but could be the best of the lot if he gets his previous form back.

Hookers: Brown, McInally, Turner

Probably in that order. Handy enough options; McInally could do with rediscovering some form, though. Turner has some question marks over his tight work and darts. 

Tichtheid: Berghan, Fagerson, Nel

Z-Fags probably the front runner here; has been on fine form for Glasgow in the loose. His scrummaging may not be his strongest point, and hopefully he’ll keep his discipline and not get distracted by some zand-bags. Nel can scrum still, but seems to be fading a bit in the loose. Berghan probably in third place as a kind of inverse-Nel.

Second row: Craig, Cummings, Gilchrist, Gray, Toolis

Still no real idea about Craig. The other options are serviceable internationals without being stellar, although Cummings still has development to do. Tackling Machine Gray & Cummings to start for me, with Gilchrist on the bench, or Toolis if we want to improve the lineout. The injured larger Gray and Skinner could feature at some point.

Back Row: Bradbury, Crosbie, DuPreez, Gordon, Haining, Ritchie, Watson

With injuries / form this is probably the best and most in-form possible line up. Notable absentees include the legend Barclay who has retired from internationals, Wilson (a first for a Townsend squad) and the injured Thomson & Fagerson the younger. First choices likely to be Bradbury, Ritchie and Watson. Other spots are more up for grabs. CDP has staged a revival after a horrific throat injury, although his last international appearance did not go well. Haining has appeared from nearly nowhere to have some storming performances for Edinburgh; one of these could fulfil the hard-running 8 role we need. Crosbie has also been in fine form of late, but is likely to play a more minor role behind the others. Gordon along for the experience.

Scrum half: Horne, Price, Pyrgos

Not many other choices. Maybe it’s time for Horne to show his stuff as a starter, but other choices way behind the first two until some youngsters come through. Nae depth.

Outside Half: Hastings, Russell

Dancin’ Finn first, then Hastings. Any injuries and it’ll be Weir or Horne getting the call. Nae depth (again).

Centres: Harris, Hutchinson, Johnson, Jones, Scott

Well, this is a conundrum and no mistake. We had nearly no un-injured centres last year now we’ve got too many. Typical. The fit & firing Bennett, Taylor and Horne all miss out which would have almost unthinkable not too long back. At IC Hutchinson has been on fine form for the Saints, Johnson has a lot of goodwill in the bank for his form in the last couple of years and Scott has staged a big comeback season at Edinburgh, cutting some fantastic lines and looking fit and fast. I’d probably go in the order Scott, Hutch, Johnson. Harsh, but someone on form is going to miss out. As for OC, Jones has finally returned to form for Glasgow and I’d have him start. Harris is a more solid option, but I’m not completely sold although he seems to be going OK at Glaws. He could have the bench spot nailed down, though. 

Wings: Graham, Maitland, McGuigan, Steyn, Tagive

Graham & Maitland nailed on IMO with the others trailing. Graham offers something none of the others do, and Treacle Toes is a classy and competent player. McGuigan next off the rank in case of injury.

Hogg, Kinghorn

Well Hogg is el capitano, so he’ll be starting. Kinghorn could be bench fodder depending on how the subs shape up, or even start on the wing if we have back 3 injuries.

Fixtures & Predictions. Optimism Status: Low

Ireland away first up. Scotland’s record at the start of tournaments, especially away is, well, pish. It seems every time we rock up with some confidence and seem bemused when the opposition turn up and it all goes to pot. Unfortunately, I expect this game to be no different.

Next up is England at Murrayfield. We got the Calcutta Cup in this fixture two years ago, and retained it in that crazy game at Twickenham last year. Doubt England will be taking this one for granted, and despite Scotland recovering from a classic first game meltdown we’ll probably lose.

Italy Away. Haven’t lost to Italy for a while. Don’t think we will this time but you never know.

France! At Murrayfield! We tend to win against France at home these days. Might even do it this time, depending if the French Kidz get it together or not. Wales. Away. Well, we don’t tend to win there, do we.

Preview courtesy of Chimpie

FRANCE: A Sleeping Giant or a Fully-awake Midget?

Between 2000 and 2010, France won the Six Nations five times (four Grand Slams), finished second twice, third thrice and fifth just once.

Between 2011 and 2019, France finished second once (and that was in 2011), third once, fourth five times, fifth once and sixth once.

Even Bernard Laporte could see a pattern there. Ten years of rot and decadence and it could get worse, as fewer kids embraced the game, deterred by the lack of heroes and the increasing risks.

In the meantime, the French clubs were doing rather well in the big European Cup as they provided six winners and twelve runners-up (England 8 and 4, Ireland 6 and 4). In the Top 14, the stadia are packed even for the worst dirge served by – here insert your least favourite club, be it Castres, Lyon or Brive.

So basically, the players are there, albeit still propped by too many excellent foreigners, the public is there, so what’s wrong? A bit like the England centres conundrum or a conversation about the weather: everybody knows, but it functions as a social lubricant.

To make a very long story a bit shorter, the FFR has forced the hand of the clubs: they must have an ever-increasing number of French qualified players in their squad, or else they face points deductions and financial penalties (but not quite Saracenesque). It is starting to pay dividends, hence the huge number of uncapped players in the squad. The FFR then appointed a new set of coaches (Galthié, Labit, Edwards etc) who for once seem to have the basic understanding of the game and with a contract that runs until the next RWC. The clubs have now released 42 players (it used to be only 32) for the national squad and for a longer period.  So what’s not to like?

The 14 players not kept in the squad by Galthié will go and play with their clubs since as usual the Top 14 will carry on during the 6N.

It goes like this:

6N dates for France	Top 14 main feature
	Jan 25: Toulouse/Bordeaux
Feb 1: England (home)
Feb 8: Italy (home)
	Feb 15: Racing / Toulouse, Bordeaux / Lyon
Feb 22: Wales (away)	Feb 22: Clermont/Bordeaux, Lyon/Racing, Toulouse/Montpellier
	Feb 29: Racing/La Rochelle
March 8: Scotland (away)
March 14: Ireland (home)

So expect injuries and more moaning from the clubs. Plus, it is difficult for Galthié to select two hookers from the same club, should they be the best in the country. For instance, one of Mauvaka and Marchand (or Dupont and Bézy) will not play for France during the 6N, whereas they probably would in a RWC.

Here is the first list of the 42. I left it in French, for your own good.

Premières lignes : Dorian Aldegheri (Stade Toulousain, 26 ans, 4 sélections), Cyril Baille (Stade Toulousain, 26 ans, 17 sélections), Demba Bamba (Lyon, 21 ans, 7 sélections), Camille Chat (Racing 92, 24 ans, 26 sélections), Anthony Etrillard (Toulon, 26 ans, 0 sélection), Jean-Baptiste Gros (Toulon, 20 ans, 0 sélection), Mohamed Haouas (Montpellier, 25 ans, 0 sélection), Julien Marchand (Stade Toulousain, 24 ans, 2 sélections), Jefferson Poirot (Bordeaux-Bègles, 27 ans, 33 sélections)

Deuxièmes lignes : Cyril Cazeaux (Bordeaux-Bègles, 24 ans, 0 sélection), Killian Geraci (Lyon, 20 ans, 0 sélection), Bernard Le Roux (Racing 92, 30 ans, 37 sélections), Boris Palu (Racing 92, 23 ans, 0 sélection), Romain Taofifenua (Toulon, 29 ans, 14 sélections), Paul Willemse (Montpellier, 27 ans, 3 sélections)

Troisièmes lignes : Grégory Alldritt (La Rochelle, 22 ans, 11 sélections), Dylan Cretin (Lyon, 22 ans, 0 sélection), François Cros (Stade Toulousain, 25 ans, 2 sélections), Alexandre Fischer (Clermont, 21 ans, 0 sélection), Sekou Macalou (Stade Français, 24 ans, 1 sélection), Charles Ollivon (cap, Toulon, 26 ans, 11 sélections), Selevasio Tolofua (Stade Toulousain, 22 ans, 0 sélection), Cameron Woki (Bordeaux-Bègles, 21 ans, 0 sélection)

Demis de mêlée : Antoine Dupont (Stade Toulousain, 23 ans, 20 sélections), Maxime Lucu (Bordeaux-Bègles, 26 ans, 0 sélection), Baptiste Serin (Toulon, 25 ans, 33 sélections)

Demis d’ouverture : Louis Carbonel (Toulon, 20 ans, 0 sélection), Matthieu Jalibert (Bordeaux-Bègles, 21 ans, 1 sélection), Romain Ntamack (Stade Toulousain, 20 ans, 12 sélections)

Centres : Gaël Fickou (Stade Français, 25 ans, 51 sélections), Julien Hériteau (Toulon, 25 ans, 0 sélection), Virimi Vakatawa (Racing 92, 27 ans, 21 sélections), Arthur Vincent (Montpellier, 20 ans, 0 sélection)

Ailiers : Gervais Cordin (Toulon, 21 ans, 0 sélection), Lester Etien (Stade Français, 24 ans, 0 sélection), Gabriel Ngandebe (Montpellier, 22 ans, 0 sélection), Damian Penaud (Clermont, 23 ans, 16 sélections), Vincent Rattez (La Rochelle, 27 ans, 3 sélections), Teddy Thomas (Racing 92, 26 ans, 16 sélections)

Arrières : Anthony Bouthier (Montpellier, 27 ans, 0 sélection), Kylan Hamdaoui (Stade Français, 25 ans, 0 sélection), Thomas Ramos (Stade Toulousain, 24 ans, 9 sélections)

Peato Mauvaka (Stade Toulousain, 23 ans, 1 sélection) replaces Etrillard, injured.

19 uncapped players, but most of them won’t play. Interesting to note that – probably looking for established familiarity – Galthié has selected pairs of SH/FH: Dupont / Ntamack from Toulouse, Serin / Carbonnel from Toulon, Lucu /Jalibert from Bordeaux. I wonder if he’ll associate them.

Some striking omissions: Slimani, Lauret, Iturria, Raka, Bézy, Iribaren, Vahaa, Médard, Huget. Some of these may join the squad later in case of injuries.

Who will start vs England?  Probably these guys:

Poirot, Chat, Bamba

Le Roux, Taofifenua

Ollivon, Alldritt, Cros

Dupont, Ntamack

Fikou, Vakatawa

Penaud, Ramos, Thomas

Bench: Aldegheri, Baille, Marchand, Willemse, Macalou, Serin, Jalibert, Hamdaoui.

What to expect?

Galthié is quite pragmatic, but he will prioritise style and substance over results, as he knows he’ll have a bit of a honeymoon period with the public. He’s chosen fast and mobile forwards instead of the big lumps that Laporte and his cronies favoured — incidentally, this is why I think he’ll pick Willemse and Taofifenua to bring in some weight to his scrum, but in the long term I’m pretty sure he’ll go for Palu, Geraci,Cazeaux and the likes. France will try to play a fast running game. The emphasis put on the high tackles favour off loads and it suits the national rugby psyche.

Strengths: more time with the players, better players, better coaches, no baggage. Half the team was already there at the RWC. The backs are a real threat.

Weaknesses: The reserves are green, green, green. Ollivon is a great captain but how about other leaders? Pack’s a bit lightweight. Ramos is a good kicker, but not in the same class as Farrell or Sexton. Finally, the Feb/March weather won’t help running rugby.

In terms of results, I expect France to finish around third.

England will have too much for France, even in Paris. Then Italy should be a formality. Wales, without Vahaa, is intriguing and could go either way but I’d bet on a win for France. As in the WC, their backs have the edge. Scotland and France tend to play the same type of rugby but I think France will have too much power for Scotland (also it’s towards the end of the 6N, so injuries have a bigger impact on smaller squads). Ireland in Paris? Ireland are easy to read but hard to stop. If there is still someone standing, possibly a draw.

May I remind you all that Heidelberg, the temporary capital of rugby, will host a blog meet on March the 14^th. In a place called the Dubliner Pub.

Coincidence? Methinks not.

Preview courtesy of Flair99

Further Reading

TomPirracas on hallucinations about Super Rugby.

On the telly this week

Friday 17th January

Saturday 18th January

Lyon 24 – 36 Northampton	13:00	BT Sport 2
Treviso 0 – 18 Leinster	13:00	BT Sport 3
Cardiff 62 – 3 Calvisano	13:00	epcrugby.com
Pau 24 – 17 Leicester	13:00	epcrugby.com / BT Sport ESPN
Zebre v Bristol	14:00	epcrugby.com
Brive v Stade Français	15:00	epcrugby.com
Edinburgh v Agen	15:00	epcrugby.com
Wasps v Bordeaux	15:00	epcrugby.com
Ulster v Bath	15:15	BT Sport 2
Harlequins v Clermont	15:15	Channel 4 / BT Sport 3
Sale v Glasgow	17:30	BT Sport 3
Exeter v La Rochelle	17:30	BT Sport 2
London Irish v Scarlets	20:00	S4C / epcrugby.com
Toulon v Bayonne	20:00	epcrugby.com

Sunday 19th January

Spain v Scotland (women)	11:00	BBC Alba
Munster v Ospreys	13:00	BT Sport 3
Saracens v Racing	13:00	BT Sport 2
Toulouse v Gloucester	15:15	BT Sport 2
Montpellier v Connacht	15:15	BT Sport 3