SCOTLAND: Ivanhalfback (nae, not really)
2019 was a sub-optimal year for the national team, comprising a pretty crappy Six Nations, followed by an abject failure to get out of the group at the World Cup (which had been a fear of this correspondent for a while). This on the back of a promising couple of years of third place in the 6N and some notable scalpings of Australia, and so nearly the ABs. So, a distinct downturn in fortunes.
Coaching Team
Toonie is still in place having been given the benefit of the doubt after Japan, albeit with a slightly re-vamped supporting team, including Steve Tandy to shore up a distinctly porous defence. Forwards coach Danny Wilson will stay in place till the summer until he takes over at Glasgow. He came with a decent rep but forward play has gone backwards since the Norn Gibbons thieved McFarland.
What ‘they’ are saying
Lunatic Fringe: Toonie oot! Catastrophe! Dodson! Money! Vern woulda won the world cup! Wurr Doommmed!! *froth* *froth*
Average Fan: Townsend really needs to turn things around, another bad 6N and his coat will be on a distinctly shoogly peg.
There has been a fair bit of angst about letting Big Vern go too early, but that ship has well and truly sailed. The fact remains that, after a couple of promising years, there was a complete failure on the biggest stage with a supposedly strong squad. The team looked predictable in attack with a leaky defence, and the much-vaunted fitness looked distinctly absent. Much of this has to land at the coaching team’s door; the question is, can they learn and turn it around? They seemed worryingly short of ideas and explanations last year.
Squad
LH Prop: Bhatti, Dell, Sutherland
Well, they are all fit & play pro rugby. Dell has been the first choice, and is probably the front runner. Not the strongest in the scrum but handy in the loose, although he has not been seeing significant game time for L’Irish. Bhatti has shown flashes of quality in recent years, but is not a regular club starter. Sutherland looked very good a few years ago before suffering bad injury, but could be the best of the lot if he gets his previous form back.
Hookers: Brown, McInally, Turner
Probably in that order. Handy enough options; McInally could do with rediscovering some form, though. Turner has some question marks over his tight work and darts.
Tichtheid: Berghan, Fagerson, Nel
Z-Fags probably the front runner here; has been on fine form for Glasgow in the loose. His scrummaging may not be his strongest point, and hopefully he’ll keep his discipline and not get distracted by some zand-bags. Nel can scrum still, but seems to be fading a bit in the loose. Berghan probably in third place as a kind of inverse-Nel.
Second row: Craig, Cummings, Gilchrist, Gray, Toolis
Still no real idea about Craig. The other options are serviceable internationals without being stellar, although Cummings still has development to do. Tackling Machine Gray & Cummings to start for me, with Gilchrist on the bench, or Toolis if we want to improve the lineout. The injured larger Gray and Skinner could feature at some point.
Back Row: Bradbury, Crosbie, DuPreez, Gordon, Haining, Ritchie, Watson
With injuries / form this is probably the best and most in-form possible line up. Notable absentees include the legend Barclay who has retired from internationals, Wilson (a first for a Townsend squad) and the injured Thomson & Fagerson the younger. First choices likely to be Bradbury, Ritchie and Watson. Other spots are more up for grabs. CDP has staged a revival after a horrific throat injury, although his last international appearance did not go well. Haining has appeared from nearly nowhere to have some storming performances for Edinburgh; one of these could fulfil the hard-running 8 role we need. Crosbie has also been in fine form of late, but is likely to play a more minor role behind the others. Gordon along for the experience.
Scrum half: Horne, Price, Pyrgos
Not many other choices. Maybe it’s time for Horne to show his stuff as a starter, but other choices way behind the first two until some youngsters come through. Nae depth.
Outside Half: Hastings, Russell
Dancin’ Finn first, then Hastings. Any injuries and it’ll be Weir or Horne getting the call. Nae depth (again).
Centres: Harris, Hutchinson, Johnson, Jones, Scott
Well, this is a conundrum and no mistake. We had nearly no un-injured centres last year now we’ve got too many. Typical. The fit & firing Bennett, Taylor and Horne all miss out which would have almost unthinkable not too long back. At IC Hutchinson has been on fine form for the Saints, Johnson has a lot of goodwill in the bank for his form in the last couple of years and Scott has staged a big comeback season at Edinburgh, cutting some fantastic lines and looking fit and fast. I’d probably go in the order Scott, Hutch, Johnson. Harsh, but someone on form is going to miss out. As for OC, Jones has finally returned to form for Glasgow and I’d have him start. Harris is a more solid option, but I’m not completely sold although he seems to be going OK at Glaws. He could have the bench spot nailed down, though.
Wings: Graham, Maitland, McGuigan, Steyn, Tagive
Graham & Maitland nailed on IMO with the others trailing. Graham offers something none of the others do, and Treacle Toes is a classy and competent player. McGuigan next off the rank in case of injury.
Hogg, Kinghorn
Well Hogg is el capitano, so he’ll be starting. Kinghorn could be bench fodder depending on how the subs shape up, or even start on the wing if we have back 3 injuries.
Fixtures & Predictions. Optimism Status: Low
Ireland away first up. Scotland’s record at the start of tournaments, especially away is, well, pish. It seems every time we rock up with some confidence and seem bemused when the opposition turn up and it all goes to pot. Unfortunately, I expect this game to be no different.
Next up is England at Murrayfield. We got the Calcutta Cup in this fixture two years ago, and retained it in that crazy game at Twickenham last year. Doubt England will be taking this one for granted, and despite Scotland recovering from a classic first game meltdown we’ll probably lose.
Italy Away. Haven’t lost to Italy for a while. Don’t think we will this time but you never know.
France! At Murrayfield! We tend to win against France at home these days. Might even do it this time, depending if the French Kidz get it together or not. Wales. Away. Well, we don’t tend to win there, do we.
Preview courtesy of Chimpie
FRANCE: A Sleeping Giant or a Fully-awake Midget?
Between 2000 and 2010, France won the Six Nations five times (four Grand Slams), finished second twice, third thrice and fifth just once.
Between 2011 and 2019, France finished second once (and that was in 2011), third once, fourth five times, fifth once and sixth once.
Even Bernard Laporte could see a pattern there. Ten years of rot and decadence and it could get worse, as fewer kids embraced the game, deterred by the lack of heroes and the increasing risks.
In the meantime, the French clubs were doing rather well in the big European Cup as they provided six winners and twelve runners-up (England 8 and 4, Ireland 6 and 4). In the Top 14, the stadia are packed even for the worst dirge served by – here insert your least favourite club, be it Castres, Lyon or Brive.
So basically, the players are there, albeit still propped by too many excellent foreigners, the public is there, so what’s wrong? A bit like the England centres conundrum or a conversation about the weather: everybody knows, but it functions as a social lubricant.
To make a very long story a bit shorter, the FFR has forced the hand of the clubs: they must have an ever-increasing number of French qualified players in their squad, or else they face points deductions and financial penalties (but not quite Saracenesque). It is starting to pay dividends, hence the huge number of uncapped players in the squad. The FFR then appointed a new set of coaches (Galthié, Labit, Edwards etc) who for once seem to have the basic understanding of the game and with a contract that runs until the next RWC. The clubs have now released 42 players (it used to be only 32) for the national squad and for a longer period. So what’s not to like?
The 14 players not kept in the squad by Galthié will go and play with their clubs since as usual the Top 14 will carry on during the 6N.
It goes like this:
| 6N dates for France | Top 14 main feature |
|---|---|
| Jan 25: Toulouse/Bordeaux | |
| Feb 1: England (home) | |
| Feb 8: Italy (home) | |
| Feb 15: Racing / Toulouse, Bordeaux / Lyon | |
| Feb 22: Wales (away) | Feb 22: Clermont/Bordeaux, Lyon/Racing, Toulouse/Montpellier |
| Feb 29: Racing/La Rochelle | |
| March 8: Scotland (away) | |
| March 14: Ireland (home) |
So expect injuries and more moaning from the clubs. Plus, it is difficult for Galthié to select two hookers from the same club, should they be the best in the country. For instance, one of Mauvaka and Marchand (or Dupont and Bézy) will not play for France during the 6N, whereas they probably would in a RWC.
Here is the first list of the 42. I left it in French, for your own good.
Premières lignes : Dorian Aldegheri (Stade Toulousain, 26 ans, 4 sélections), Cyril Baille (Stade Toulousain, 26 ans, 17 sélections), Demba Bamba (Lyon, 21 ans, 7 sélections), Camille Chat (Racing 92, 24 ans, 26 sélections), Anthony Etrillard (Toulon, 26 ans, 0 sélection), Jean-Baptiste Gros (Toulon, 20 ans, 0 sélection), Mohamed Haouas (Montpellier, 25 ans, 0 sélection), Julien Marchand (Stade Toulousain, 24 ans, 2 sélections), Jefferson Poirot (Bordeaux-Bègles, 27 ans, 33 sélections)
Deuxièmes lignes : Cyril Cazeaux (Bordeaux-Bègles, 24 ans, 0 sélection), Killian Geraci (Lyon, 20 ans, 0 sélection), Bernard Le Roux (Racing 92, 30 ans, 37 sélections), Boris Palu (Racing 92, 23 ans, 0 sélection), Romain Taofifenua (Toulon, 29 ans, 14 sélections), Paul Willemse (Montpellier, 27 ans, 3 sélections)
Troisièmes lignes : Grégory Alldritt (La Rochelle, 22 ans, 11 sélections), Dylan Cretin (Lyon, 22 ans, 0 sélection), François Cros (Stade Toulousain, 25 ans, 2 sélections), Alexandre Fischer (Clermont, 21 ans, 0 sélection), Sekou Macalou (Stade Français, 24 ans, 1 sélection), Charles Ollivon (cap, Toulon, 26 ans, 11 sélections), Selevasio Tolofua (Stade Toulousain, 22 ans, 0 sélection), Cameron Woki (Bordeaux-Bègles, 21 ans, 0 sélection)
Demis de mêlée : Antoine Dupont (Stade Toulousain, 23 ans, 20 sélections), Maxime Lucu (Bordeaux-Bègles, 26 ans, 0 sélection), Baptiste Serin (Toulon, 25 ans, 33 sélections)
Demis d’ouverture : Louis Carbonel (Toulon, 20 ans, 0 sélection), Matthieu Jalibert (Bordeaux-Bègles, 21 ans, 1 sélection), Romain Ntamack (Stade Toulousain, 20 ans, 12 sélections)
Centres : Gaël Fickou (Stade Français, 25 ans, 51 sélections), Julien Hériteau (Toulon, 25 ans, 0 sélection), Virimi Vakatawa (Racing 92, 27 ans, 21 sélections), Arthur Vincent (Montpellier, 20 ans, 0 sélection)
Ailiers : Gervais Cordin (Toulon, 21 ans, 0 sélection), Lester Etien (Stade Français, 24 ans, 0 sélection), Gabriel Ngandebe (Montpellier, 22 ans, 0 sélection), Damian Penaud (Clermont, 23 ans, 16 sélections), Vincent Rattez (La Rochelle, 27 ans, 3 sélections), Teddy Thomas (Racing 92, 26 ans, 16 sélections)
Arrières : Anthony Bouthier (Montpellier, 27 ans, 0 sélection), Kylan Hamdaoui (Stade Français, 25 ans, 0 sélection), Thomas Ramos (Stade Toulousain, 24 ans, 9 sélections)
Peato Mauvaka (Stade Toulousain, 23 ans, 1 sélection) replaces Etrillard, injured.
19 uncapped players, but most of them won’t play. Interesting to note that – probably looking for established familiarity – Galthié has selected pairs of SH/FH: Dupont / Ntamack from Toulouse, Serin / Carbonnel from Toulon, Lucu /Jalibert from Bordeaux. I wonder if he’ll associate them.
Some striking omissions: Slimani, Lauret, Iturria, Raka, Bézy, Iribaren, Vahaa, Médard, Huget. Some of these may join the squad later in case of injuries.
Who will start vs England? Probably these guys:
Poirot, Chat, Bamba
Le Roux, Taofifenua
Ollivon, Alldritt, Cros
Dupont, Ntamack
Fikou, Vakatawa
Penaud, Ramos, Thomas
Bench: Aldegheri, Baille, Marchand, Willemse, Macalou, Serin, Jalibert, Hamdaoui.
What to expect?
Galthié is quite pragmatic, but he will prioritise style and substance over results, as he knows he’ll have a bit of a honeymoon period with the public. He’s chosen fast and mobile forwards instead of the big lumps that Laporte and his cronies favoured — incidentally, this is why I think he’ll pick Willemse and Taofifenua to bring in some weight to his scrum, but in the long term I’m pretty sure he’ll go for Palu, Geraci,Cazeaux and the likes. France will try to play a fast running game. The emphasis put on the high tackles favour off loads and it suits the national rugby psyche.
Strengths: more time with the players, better players, better coaches, no baggage. Half the team was already there at the RWC. The backs are a real threat.
Weaknesses: The reserves are green, green, green. Ollivon is a great captain but how about other leaders? Pack’s a bit lightweight. Ramos is a good kicker, but not in the same class as Farrell or Sexton. Finally, the Feb/March weather won’t help running rugby.
In terms of results, I expect France to finish around third.
England will have too much for France, even in Paris. Then Italy should be a formality. Wales, without Vahaa, is intriguing and could go either way but I’d bet on a win for France. As in the WC, their backs have the edge. Scotland and France tend to play the same type of rugby but I think France will have too much power for Scotland (also it’s towards the end of the 6N, so injuries have a bigger impact on smaller squads). Ireland in Paris? Ireland are easy to read but hard to stop. If there is still someone standing, possibly a draw.
May I remind you all that Heidelberg, the temporary capital of rugby, will host a blog meet on March the 14th. In a place called the Dubliner Pub.
Coincidence? Methinks not.
Preview courtesy of Flair99
Further Reading
TomPirracas on hallucinations about Super Rugby.
On the telly this week
Friday 17th January
| Dragons 47 – 5 Enisei-STM | 20:00 | S4C / epcrugby.com |
| Worcester 27 – 33 Castres | 20:00 | epcrugby.com |
Saturday 18th January
| Lyon 24 – 36 Northampton | 13:00 | BT Sport 2 |
| Treviso 0 – 18 Leinster | 13:00 | BT Sport 3 |
| Cardiff 62 – 3 Calvisano | 13:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Pau 24 – 17 Leicester | 13:00 | epcrugby.com / BT Sport ESPN |
| Zebre v Bristol | 14:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Brive v Stade Français | 15:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Edinburgh v Agen | 15:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Wasps v Bordeaux | 15:00 | epcrugby.com |
| Ulster v Bath | 15:15 | BT Sport 2 |
| Harlequins v Clermont | 15:15 | Channel 4 / BT Sport 3 |
| Sale v Glasgow | 17:30 | BT Sport 3 |
| Exeter v La Rochelle | 17:30 | BT Sport 2 |
| London Irish v Scarlets | 20:00 | S4C / epcrugby.com |
| Toulon v Bayonne | 20:00 | epcrugby.com |
Sunday 19th January
| Spain v Scotland (women) | 11:00 | BBC Alba |
| Munster v Ospreys | 13:00 | BT Sport 3 |
| Saracens v Racing | 13:00 | BT Sport 2 |
| Toulouse v Gloucester | 15:15 | BT Sport 2 |
| Montpellier v Connacht | 15:15 | BT Sport 3 |
Ovally Balls 
I guess while they were hedging their bets – they were playing slightly under-strength on Europe to focus on league – that’s completely shot now, so may as well ignore the league and go for it in the Heino
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Now hearing that Sarries are prepared to take relegation as punishment for this season in order to stop any further investigation.
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Whilst there is no cap in the Euro competition, they would not have been able to assemble the squad they have without cheating in the domestic tournament, the other sides can be legitimately pissed off at this.
Does it break any Euro Cup laws? No.
Does it break the spirit of the competition? I’d say so.
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Thanks for the ATLs Chimpie, Flair. We are really spoilt, and as DoggyBone said I feel much better informed after reading your previews.
I expected a more dire overview of Scotland’s prospects but the squad doesn’t look that bad. The centre riches are especially troubling.
I think I’m a bit more sceptical about the merits of Bradbury, who I thought was over-praised for his efforts for Scotland in the last 6N.
Still, I think Scotland like Ireland will have learned a hard lesson for treating the RWC as a warm-up exercise. I’m expecting some tartan fireworks.
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It’s a terribly sad day for English club rugby.
They’ve played good if not the most aesthetically pleasing rugby, developed some excellent players, done some good outreach work with underpriviliged kids in NW London (according to teacher friends of mine) and thrown it all away because they got massively greedy for success. Conned their fans, conned the rest of the league and conned their way into oblivion.
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I can’t get too much of a bad vibes hardon for Saracens when my own team plays in a league with no cap and the biggest wage bill in the comp will be that of the team that has and does dominate it.
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Meanwhile France suddenly seem to be in a far better place. There’s been false dawns before and I recall Flair’s optimism when Guy Novès was appointed, but that ended up more damp squib than rocket.
My impression is that the hosting the next RWC is focussing minds on getting the club v country balance right, as far as that can go. It is insightful to read about the dilemma of selecting players from the same club if they play in the same position. Not a problem Wales tends to face because talent is spread thinly in the Regions.
Maybe the turning point is that France will stop trying to fight fire with fire, and the era of picking ‘big lumps’ to counter the Anglo-Saxon big lumps from across the Channel is over. Exciting times.
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Not being one for conspiracy theories but it seems more than a little coincidental that Saracens should attract a lot of investment from big South African rugby types like Johan Ruppert and then just before the World Cup final against South Africa the reports of a massive penalty for cheating against the club of a number of England players start circulating. As if that’s not enough the club then gets relegated to the 2nd tier of the English structure for the season before the B+I Lions next tour, which is to South Africa.
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‘I expected a more dire overview of Scotland’s prospects’
Pfft. I didn’t think I was exactly overflowing with optimism. Weak / no depth in key places, question marks over the coaching team. Be lucky to win more than 1. ‘spretty dire. If I was being upbeat I’d say we’d win 2 or 3.
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If I was into conspiracy theories (and I’m only really into space-based ones) I’d be wondering why a high earning player would leave the Prem mid-season to go and play Super Rugby.
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Pfft back. Loads of Scottish optimism layered into the F&R between the lines. I reckon you are fancying your chances while playing up the under(llama)dog woes.
If I was a betting man…
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It’s a pity in some ways – coming from a pitch in a north London park …it was a great story.
But you have it right there – “massively greedy” – at some point being competitive alongside Wasps, Quins who’d have traditionally regarded them as poor relations wasn’t enough – total world domination beckoned.
Back in the day the better Saracens players – thinking of Dean Ryan, Ben Clarke, Tony Copsey (probably others) – tended to end up across town, so I guess there was a kind of “up yours!” thrill in getting likes of Daly to jump ship….
i was reading a comment on UK govt’s promise to “get tough on crime” – usual stuff ..long sentences – commenter pointed out that the length of the sentence isn’t the main deterrent… it’s the chance of being caught… one can only assume that Saracens never thought they’d be caught
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Great read-back…………………..thanks guys!
p.s. Slade is a massive injury worry…………………………..just sayin’
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@Tomp: We wuz robbed!! Now that’s a narrative I can get behind!
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It’s simple to say but the leadership at Sarries reminds me of the financial institutions that got bug-eyed about how much money they could make on the back of a ‘product’ and its financial spin-offs.
Flaunting governance and due diligence must have been easy if the goal was to make as much money as possible from what you have complete control over. No wonder Wray has bunked off early, probably to a yacht somewhere.
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trisk, Jason Leonard is the classic example from that period.
Darren O’Leary and Tony Diprose a couple of others.
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I played for their age group teams when I was at university and it was part of the esprit de club that they were the plucky North London/Essex/Hertfordshire boys against the posh lads. A mate of mine, much much better than me, was a first/second team player and loathed the Quins especially. Now, he’s a city lawyer, of course.
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This whole Saracens thing really makes me wish that we had more unity in our set up. Saracens were wrong to do what they did but destroying them will be terrible for English rugby.
No one (in England) will gain anything from this.
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I don’t get the opprobrium towards Saracens. Yeah, they cheated bigtime, and Wray is, and always has been a twat, but they got caught, got punished and so be it. However, it only affected the English Prem, so I understand Exeter, Quins, Bath etc.. fans being irate.
As Yos says, Leinster (and to some extent Munster) effectively operate on an uncapped budget far beyond their competitors. As for the French T14 – there are some big wage bills there
In summary (and I may have said this before), rugger is not meant to be professional and, now that it is, this kind of stuff is inevitable. FOR SHAME
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Utna – re the being caught. I wonder if anyone else will be in the next few years.
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Once you change a sport from a game for the players (as rugby was) to a game for the spectators, you had better have a hell of a lot of spectators (like soccer, basketball, nfl…) or you are in trouble ……………
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@ craigs
Not sure, but since the limits in most cases are “we cant afford”, rather than “salary cap” not sure who else will have violated. The only candidate would be other GP clubs – Exeter? Quins? Leicester?
None seem likely!
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Quins got busted for a minor overspend (about 10 grand) last year or the year before.
Bath and Saracens got caught out a few years back, 2014, 2015, but managed to evade any sanction. Reading between the lines there was a gentleman’s agreement about it and that’s why the roof’s fallen in on Sarries now.
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Thanks Chimpie and Flair for the excellent previews.
Zero sympathy for Sarries.
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Soupeer Rugby preseason kicked off last night. Madness. First real games same weekend as the 6N. More madness.
TV viewing for the 6N will be way down.
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Aren’t they trialling some new laws in Super Rygbi this year?
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My mate Jeremy’s dad died today. Never met the old man but knew him very well. He gets the killer line at the end of this:
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“Your” Exeter side to face La Rochelle –
15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Jack Nowell, 13 Ian Whitten, 12 Sam Hill, 11 Olly Woodburn
10 Joe Simmonds, 9 Jack Maunder
1 Alec Hepburn, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Harry Williams, 4 Dave Dennis (capt), 5 Jonny Hill, 6 Dave Ewers, 7 Jacques Vermeulen, 8 Sam Simmonds
16 Elvis Taione,, 17 Ben Moon, 18 Enrique Pieretto, 19 Jannes Kirsten, 20 Matt Kvesic, 21 Stu Townsend
22 Gareth Steenson, 23 Ollie Devoto
not bad: rest/injury – Slade, White, Street,
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yos, a warning for high tackles. Two warnings and you get a ban:
https://www.sarugbymag.co.za/super-rugby-to-trial-new-tackle-law/
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Bristol….
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Flair and Chimpie have set a high standard, so who is brave enough to volunteer for the other four nations?
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I doubt the Championship sides would be too impressed having to line up against Sarries. What if they all banded together and told them to f*** off?
Similar situation in NZ schoolboy rugby recently. All the other top sides got together and refused to take the field against St Kents, based on St Kents perceived poaching of other schools’ talent.
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AVs – not sure if it works like that tbh.
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Craigs – yeah, wishful thinking.
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It’d probably be quite good for a few of the clubs to play Sarries if they kept their stars and the stars played . Plenty of people would pay good money to see British and Irish Lions Farrell, Vunipola, Vunipola, Itoje, George, Daly, Maitland and World Cup winner Koch on the park. A bumper pay day for clubs like Ealing and Ampthill and Hartpury (Gloucester Development) College.
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TomP, your mate’s dad came over as a really nice fella in the roles he played. I hope he was just as nice in real life. One of those people blessed with a really kind face.
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TMHMIR™️ only on the bench for the Drags tonight. I assume not to distract the ref from the job at hand.
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Rodney pitch looking disappointedly cabbage patchy.
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Thought they’d relaid the pitch? Or done something to it at least.
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Outrageous sexism!
As a professional woman, I am sure that I would never get distracted by … ooh, look, Donncha O’Callahan!
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Now, that I’d pay to see.
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Ah Sam Davies does one of his quick momentum touch finders and wastes about 20 meters with a shit kick. Every week the same.
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Moriarty contrives to emerge upside down from a driving maul to score the opening try.
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Iksy, I never met him. Jeremy loved him dearly and was very close to him, which is a great thing for a child to feel for the parent.
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@Iks – the rest of Sam’s career is going to be about the 50-22 or whatever it is.
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Dragons should get Moriarty in a one-on-one with Basson. He’ll definitely score.
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We did BB. One of those hybrid doodahs. It isn’t as bad as the paddy-field days but too many bare and sandy patches.
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D’you hear that bit about the new rule? If you kick from your own half & bounce it into touch, you’ll get the throw-in….
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Drags are getting on the wrong side of the ref Thauma, so I’d send TM on now to evoke the Donncha effect,
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