It’s a mystery to me, the game commences, for the usual fee, plus expenses, He could throw that ball by you, Make you look like a fool boy. As neither Mark Knopfler nor Bruce Springsteen actually sang. But this is it, after months of travel and travails, outlandish skill and outrageous decisions, flashy footwork and plodding power, sleight of hand, nothing bland, we arrive at the knockouts of the URC. The last eight sides still in with a shout, four matches this weekend that could produce some stunning upsets or predictable eye-rolling. Let’s see.
Glasgow Warriors vs Connacht sets the ball rolling in Scotland on Friday night, with 1st vs 8th on the log being about as deceptive as you’ll get. Glasgow are stacked full of internationals and top the table after a fine season, but they had a couple of notable wobbles later on, losing badly on their tour of South Africa, and sneaking past Ulster in the final fixture to guarantee top spot. Connacht really came out of nowhere after a slow start to the season, but arguably finished the league phase as the form side – a solitary loss to the Lions (of course) in Johannesburg their only defeat since the end of January. Eight wins from their last nine, including wins over the Stormers, Munster – and Glasgow underpinning their pedigree, despite the lack of big-ticket names. Can they pull off what would be one of the shocks of the season thus far? Unlikely – the Warriors have a 100% record at home this season and are fiendishly difficult to beat on their home patch.
Verdict: The Weedge by a whisker!
Bulls vs Munster gets Saturday rolling on the highveld at the ridiculous time of 1:30pm this side, when most parents and kids are still at schools for rugby. Oh well. Both sides had indifferent starts to the campaign, but both have gathered a head of steam lately. The Bulls have only lost two URC matches this year (both to the Stormers) and have scalped Munster, Cardiff and the Lions during that run (as well as Edinburgh to avoid outrage). Both home losses were against local opposition, with a perfect record against European teams. A helluva pack of forwards and some good outside backs along with Pollard’s boot has seen off most at Loftus for a couple of seasons now, but Munster ran them desperately close a few weeks back – 3 points in it. Munster? Won six of their first seven URC matches this season and folks were talking about them being back. Since then, though it’s five wins and six losses, which suggests a side still struggling to get on a run and to finish off the tight matches. Both sides are capable of winning, both have the odd brainfart to undermine them too.
Verdict: Bulls by bugger-all!
Stormers vs Cardiff has upset written all over it. But who is the underdog? Cardiff gave the Stormers a lesson in cohesive, quick-thinking rugby a couple of weeks ago and won’t fear Cape Town Stadium, close to Llandudno, a fabulous, overpriced beach community down there. The Stormers got off to a flyer this season, with eight wins on the bounce, bookended by Leinster at home and then four in Europe, with Munster the final one. After that, though, they’ve spluttered through a series of embarrassing performances, their defence more passive than a noun in a corporate training manual, and their attack more ragged than a tramp’s coat in a tempest. They’ve lost confidence and there are dark mutterings in the camp. The Diff gave them the stiff in the last round, but have been mercurial in their own right this season: two relatively heavy defeats to Glasgow and the Bulls aside, most of their matches have finished within a score – eleven out of the other sixteen. They’re difficult to put away, but can also be their own worst enemies, or perhaps are lacking a little on the bench? A wild ride in, with three wins and three losses, but crucially, all the losses were away, with two in South Africa.
Verdict: Stormers by a sailor’s stubble.
Leinster vs Lions: Obviously the rugby world is backing the Lions to slay the rough beast that slouches towards Scotstoun. Not as obvious is how the Lions will achieve this most magnificent of results. Leinster may be battered and bruised from their hammering by Bordeaux, but they still have pretty much a British and Irish Lions side there. Definitely an Irish international side. Despite whispers of Jacques Nienaber stitching them from the inside, they remain a formidable side, well oiled and with excellent depth. A few injuries for sure, but the Lions are without three key players too – and without anywhere near the squad depth Leinster have. The Pride of Joburg ran Leinster close three weeks ago, being within a score until the last 10 minutes or so, before falling away having tackled themselves to a standstill. They stayed in Ireland and have had two weeks to prepare, whilst Leinster have been battling for higher honours. The word is that they’ve taken the lessons on board from that last match and have a plan. But as Mike Tyson said, “everybody got a plan ‘til they get punched in the face.” I fear we’re going to get punched in the face.
Verdict: The Lions will be more brave, brave Sir Robin than Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog slayers. Leinster by a length.
Deliberations by Deebee7
YouTube always wants me to sign in now. Call me a rebel.
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Thauma, you’re missing some fabulous fatties flattening (and flattering) in full flight! Opens with Matt Dunnning-(Kruger) effortlessly knocking over a drop goal from 45m out and simultaneously knocking his own team out of the Super Rugby playoffs (they needed a try for a bonus point to get through). Richard Bands flattening Carlos Spencer for the Boks, also from near enough the halfway line on his way to a try is another highlight – even if we still lost that match. Haven’t finished watching the reel yet.
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Less than 24 hours to go. Too nervous to make a call. Boks should win based on recent history, venue blah blah, but they could also be slightly undercooked after one Test in the last month and not much else. Kiwis have had three tour matches to get into the rhythm, but they weren’t really tough matches against pre-season clubs shorn of their current Boks.
I’ll take a one point win; I’m hoping for much more!
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If you want a warmup, Ulster Women vs Leinster Women is being streamed on Youtube at 2:30pm.
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The game is on TG4 and it’s all in Gaelic – including the stream description. So searching for ‘Ulster Leinster Women’ returns no results. Great job at SEO lads.
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The SA scrum is grinding the ABs to dust. It’s incredible to watch.
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SA have imploded with 10mins left.
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Boks just fucked it up. Kiwis were superb. Thought we would walk it half time, but the Kiwis dominated the 2nd half.
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So searching for ‘Ulster Leinster Women’ returns no results
If need arises….
Ulaidh – Ulster
Laighin – Leinster
Mumha – Munster
(and Connacht is -well – Connacht)
(the “ster” is apparently a Norse add-on)
rugbaí = rugby
mna = women
úd = try
cic pionos – penalty kick
TG4 are pretty good with their coverage
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@deebee
With that level of scrum dominance – ye should have won handily (as you well know) but I guess the warning was there after the Ireland game last year – a comfortable win that should have been 30-40 points. The yellow cards didn’t come for NZ, and the dominance wasn’t turned into points. (handling was horrendous – too many dropped balls at close range – yep, credit to the defence etc etc)
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Trisk, I’m hopong we’ll get a repeat of last year in New Zealand where I felt we should’ve won at Eden Park, but for the bounce of the ball and some poor decisions, then battered them in Wellington. The whole country (other than the mob in Cape Town who support the Kiwis) is hoping for a massive response!
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welll, some good news from our house – #1 son played a full game (more or less) on Sunday (broke his leg and tore ligaments last Sept in first weeks at university)
Played wing and full back and scored 2 tries and kicked a conversion – I thought he’d be pissed off at not playing SH (his favoured position) but he was pretty happy to get back playing in any position.
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Is this good?
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Apparently it was good.
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Seems to have worked, aye!
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To follow up my post about #1 son – played a second friendly on Sat against an AIL club 2nds. Remarkable thing is that of the 25 who made up the panel – 17 were under 25. Only 5 were 30 or more.
One of our big issues used to be lads heading off to college and joining clubs in Dublin, Cork , Limerick. Problem was they were regarded as training bodies – get a game here and there, lose interest and then drop out.
One of my colleagues has done great work telling lads about the option to play “senior” with us (albeit we are a “junior” club*) at weekends and play U21 with a club in their college town.
10 of the the lads who’ve played in the last 2 weeks were lads I coached at U11/U12 or U13/U14 in past few years – so really pleased to see them still involved and enjoying playing
don’t get into Irish naming conventions with respect to categories in sports….
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don’t get into Irish naming conventions with respect to categories in sports….
So, we are a junior club. If we were AIL (All Ireland League), we’d be a senior club and get access to many more international tickets.
In fact, we our men’s 1st XV are classed as J1. This year, we’ll have a 2nd XV – so they are classed as J2.
There are then elaborate rules about player eligibility – if I start 50% or more of my club’s J1 fixtures in a certain period – I am a J1 player and can’t start a J2 fixture. If I merely play in same fixtures (ie come on as a sub) – I can still be J2.
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Sounds more complex that Mozambican flight schedules, Trisk!
Now, bear in mind that Mozambique is over 2,500km end to end (roughly Paris to Moscow) and remains deeply impoverished with no real decent roads linking the north and south, meaning your only option is to fly.
I arrived in Maputo last Sunday (23rd) and spent three days there. Flew to Beira on the Wednesday evening, then to Tete on the Saturday afternoon. All pretty straightforward so far. But getting to the cities in the north, meant flying back to Beira via Quelimane, to get a connecting flight to Nampula. I was only there for 24 hours. Today, flew back to Beira, overnight here, then fly back to Tete tomorrow at 7am, to get a flight to Pemba in the north. Luckily, it’s direct from there back to Joburg. Unluckily, I fly during the rugby.
Possibly even worse is that the hotels I’m staying at in Beira and Nampula are both ‘dry’ being owned by Muslim families. Did sneak a bottle of red in this evening.
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Good news – I got my free travel pass yesterday ….and because I’m so old and decrepit – my wife gets to travel with me for free too. Works on trains and buses here (also the DART – Dublin’s commuter rail service and the Luas – Dublin’s tram system)
Immediate upside – I was spending almost €70 each week to go to the office in Dublin…..
Going to have to invent reasons for travel now……
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Fairly bonkers Prem Cup match between Bristol and Gloucester. Bristol leading 43-33 with 55mins played. 7 tries to 5.
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I believe the Boks owe me a huge debt of gratitude. I flew back to SA from Mozambique yesterday and missed the first fifty odd minutes. As soon as I set foot on Joburg soil (tarmac, for the pedants) we roared into the lead and never looked back. Great result! Gonna have to find a replay to watch it!
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Welsh victory in the British Open!
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well, a Welsh victory in anything seems to have stunned us all……
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Boks vs Kiwis in Baltimore this weekend, for the last of the 4 Test series. It should be a humdinger of a match! The Boks are the more settled of the two sides, picking the same 23 largely that did duty last weekend. Only Kolbe (broken jaw), but replaced by the returning Damian Willemse and swapping the two nines around has changed from last week. It’s a very strong pack, that’ll look to dominate the Kiwis at set piece again, and maul them backwards again. Morne van den Bergh definitely lifted the tempo when he came on last week, so it’ll be interesting to see how he goes starting – he reminds me a bit of Faf de Klerk in his pomp. Likewise Manie Libbok, who is by some distance the best attacking 10 we have at the moment, even if his goalkicking is below par.
The scoreline at the Calabash flattered the Kiwis a bit, scoring a converted try after the hooter. They’ve also had four enforced changes to the 23, and eight in total, with Ardie Savea a massive blow to them as both skipper and the best 8 on the park over the series. Luke Jacobsen too has had a fine series, strong, never say die and in your face – that’ll be missed, whilst Fabian Holland in the 2nd row is a loss too. Quinn Tupaea in midfield misses out too, with Anton Lienert-Brown replacing him. 93 caps, but I know a lot of Kiwis feel he’s yesterday’s man. The big news is that Ruben Love has been dropped out of the 23 completely, with Richie Mo’unga back in the saddle at 10 – desperate gamble or stroke of genius by Rennie? His partnership with Oscar nominee Cam ‘Clutch’ Roigard could be dynamite.
Overall, it feels like the Boks should be favourites, just, with the Kiwis less settled, even if they’ve been together for eight matches on the tour. Will that have an impact – positively or negatively? Are they able to swap out with too much interruption, or will the legs be a bit weary by now after six weeks or so of travel and playing? Can’t wait! Obviously hoping for a Bok win and a 3-1 Series win, but these teams are more evenly matched than maybe some think.
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Bristol not going well against Exeter in the Prem Cup, going into half time 17-7 down and then conceding a 4th shortly into the second half. 24-7 now.
Meanwhile, England Women are actually down against Australia at half time, 5-10!
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England are now winning 39-10 with 67mins on the clock.
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BOKKE! That’s just about a World Cup. Wow! Hellava series!
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My head is sore. Fucking pug woke me up after four hours sleep.
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My head has recovered, I’m sure you’re all glad to hear. Now for two weeks of no rugby.
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Baltimore game was the only one I saw in any length – saw 2nd half of the Cape Town game plus highlights of the others.
I’d tend to agree with Deebee that a number of the SA team are approaching that point where a sudden decline can kick in – though this is not set in stone. Oddly enough, looking a bit light at lock – Etzebeth and then who. Kleyn gone – based on what we saw at Munster last year, Snyman – another ACL looks like it could be one too many, then de Jager and Nortje (who is good but not really making a huge difference. But maybe Erasmus unearths another monster.
10 – looks a bit uncertain – but maybe Libbok and SFM settle themselves (or maybe the sheer unpredictability unnerves teams).
NZ look on the up… struggled in the scrum – but few teams wouldn’t. Still devastating in broken play.
In general, good to see a crowd of 68k at a match. Though I think too much effort is made to “break” the US – they have football and I don’t see a second collision-based sport being more than a niche sport.there.
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Trisk, if I’m gonna be hypercritical, we have a few more areas of concern: Marx is now undoubtedly the best hooker around, but we have nobody approaching that quality as back up. It speaks volumes that Rassie used a 40-year old retreaded hooker as replacement. Back in the pomp of the Bomb Squad either Marx or Bongi was on the bench, so no drop off in quality at all. Lock is another area – Kleyn, Mostert, De Jager, Etzebeth all well on the wrong side of 30. Nortje does a lot of the grind, organises the lineouts and has an 80 minute engine – he’s very much in the mould of Mostert. Riley Norton, last year’s U20 Bok captain, is coming through, but is still very young and callow. Cobus Wiese (Jasper’s brother) is another option, although he’s possibly better in a PSDT role. A couple of others at the Bulls and Stormers, but nobody really blowing down the house, as it were.
One thing I also picked up on – our Bomb Squad is nothing like it used to be. Still good, but in 2023/4 you could replace Malberbe, Bongi and Kitshoff with Nyakane/Koch, Ox and Marx in the front row, Etzebeth with Snyman in the second row, Vermeulen with Jasper Wiese at 8, and Siya with Kwagga at six. And possibly move PSDT into lock and bring another loose forward on.
Today, we have no back up for Marx, Rassie playing ‘hybrid’ hookers impacts on our replacement front row, de Jager is ageing in the second row, Hanekom is potentially a superstar, but Andre Esterhuizen being used only as an impact flank now doesn’t work for me. Will our squad players step up? I honestly don’t know.
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Couldn’t log in most of the time. I really enjoyed the games between SA and the ABs. Great rugby, if a bit scary. I still prefer to watch the ABs than the Boks but there’s no denying the Boks are better. As the great dialoguist Michel Audiard once wrote: when the 100kgs men talk, the 60 kgs men listen.
Now back to the Top14, some fun games already but most teams are still rusty.
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Wow, it worked!
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Flair – the old myth about supersized Boks again! I found an interesting link from the 2023 Rugby Championship comparing the different sides – the Kiwi pack was on average tallest, followed by the Aussies, then Boks and then Pumas, whilst the Aussie pack was heaviest, followed by the Boks, Kiwis and Pumas.
The recent series, the average pack weights had the Boks at 936kg and Kiwis at 918kg over the series, with that difference largely in the front row where the Boks were 15kg heavier. Almost all of that at TH with Wilco Louw.
Part of the problem for the Kiwis, is they don’t play physical rugby much anymore ,with Super Pacific or whatever it’s called being closer to League than Union in many respects, so when they come up against a side like the Boks, who thrive on contact and confrontation, it really takes its toll.
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This weekend we play Australia in Perth and I’ll guarantee the Wallabies will be 20kg to 30kg heavier than the Boks in the forwards, and their backs will be on average 7-8kg heavier than ours and 3-4cm taller.
Dare I say it, but I also think the Wallabies will win. The Boks have a very average record in Australia, have changed 13 of 15 starting players from Baltimore and let’s face it, after a month of getting yourself physically and mentally prepared to face the All Blacks, they’re probably not going to be firing on all cylinders.
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Was a public holiday here yesterday and most of the country has made an extended long weekend out of it. So I’m sitting in my office fairly bored, waiting for Godot. So I thought I’d have a look at the two sides in the Aus vs Bok match as per above in terms of height and weight, to prove my point. Or not, as it happens. Basically, there’s nothing in it in terms of overall height and weight across the squads: Aussie backs average 1.83m and 91kg, the Boks 1.84m and 91kg. The forwards are much the same: Aussie forwards average 1.91m and 118kg, with the Boks tipping the scales at 1.90m and 118kg.
However! If you break it down into starting XV and replacements, and by positions, it is very different. Aussie outside backs are shorter and lighter, averaging 1.84m and 96kg to the Boks 1.89m and 98kg; the loose trios – Aussies are monsters, at 1.92m and 112kg average to to the Boks 1.86m and 106kg; almost identical second rows (around 2m each and 117kg), whilst the Aussie front row is 7kg per man heavier than the diminutive Boks. Overall packs? Aussies 1cm taller and 4kg heavier per man.
The bench is slightly different – the Bok replacement front row is 5kg heavier per man, with the balance of fowards (Aus have four, we have three) seeing the Boks 8kg a man heavier, and 6cm a man taller. It is a fairly scary bench, to be fair, with Ox, Marx, Wilco Louw, Lood de Jager and Jasper Wiese lurking with intent.
Over the whole 23 in each squad, the Aussies are on average 1cm taller and 2kg heavier. Bloody monsters!
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Should read Aus have three and Boks two for the replacement non-front rowers.
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‘MON Ulster!!!
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Very much two B sides tonight: Ulster have 11 players injured plus quite a few (including McCloskey) being rested after the autumn series, and Embra have 17 injured players!
All Embra for the first ten minutes, then Ulster managed to get the ball and go on the attack, but it’s still scoreless.
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Your lads are under the cosh a wee bit, Thauma!
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Try Edinburgh!
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Deebee – they are! Can’t say the team looks like it’s clicked yet.
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TRY Mikey! Ulster woke up!
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That’s some gas by Lowry!
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Some lovely hands from Embra.
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Another lovely Embra try.
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Ulster battering the Edinburgh scrum, to much applause from the fans. Strange, that. And then Embra slice through, get a lucky bounce and in for 7 more! 5-20 and Ulster under the pump.
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5-20 at HT. The shame.
As Deebee says, the one pastry so far is that we suddenly have an amazing scrum – either that, or Embra’s is really shit. Both sides have poor line-outs.
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Fuck’s sake. Embra get another (very good) try in less than two minutes after the restart, with again a superb passing game.
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Edinburgh in for their fourth, and our defence is absolutely woeful. Embra’s attack is great.
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