The squads have been announced, the photo-ops done, the pre-tournament blathering from the coaches and captains is out of the way, and what do we know about the 2026 Six Nations? It’s sponsored by Guinness. Much more than that, it’s difficult to say who will end where, and who will lift the trophy come mid-March. Also, BKT sponsor the tyres for those torturous bus trips from the hotels to the stadia. Who knew? What we do know are the squads and schedules, which make for some fascinating (or not) speculation:
England
Nailed-on favourites to win the whole thing, of course, possibly with a Grand Slam thrown in: ask the English media, they’ll tell you, just like they do every year. Until the first loss, when the knives come out. Comedy gold. This year is no different, with the caveat being that England really are a very, very good side and bubbling with confidence. Eleven-match winning streak, some audacious new talents led by the irritating irrepressible Henry Pollock under the leadership of St Maro, and possessing not just excellence in the forwards and backs, but depth through the 23 and broader squad. A gentle start to the tournament against Wales (sorry, Welsh fans) will set England up nicely for a feisty clash against Scotland at Murrayfield. A potential banana-skin, but England should have too much in the tank for Scotland, and can move back to HQ against Ireland for a massive clash with confidence. A lesser clash against Italy follows, as a nice warm up for probably the tournament-defining Test against France in Paris. Possible weaknesses? Not many: maybe a callow set of props, but it seems to be an area of general parity in the north at the moment.
Prediction: England to win it all! Or maybe fall at the last against France.
France
Which France will turn up? The return of the world’s best player is a huge boost for France, and Dupont’s club form in the last couple of weeks has underlined his status as an out-and-out matchwinner. That said, France will be hoping he doesn’t get injured, because the nine cupboard is (comparatively) bare after that with Lucu, Jauneau and Le Garrec all out for the first couple of matches at least. A bit of a creaky front row, potentially, but plenty of boeuf in the pack. The exclusion of Aldritt, in particular, raises eyebrows though. Outside of Dupont, the likes of Depoortere, Moefana, Jalibert, Ramos and LB-B provide threats across the park – and I’d love to see them in full flight!
France open their campaign with a must-win match against Ireland in Paris. The form of French sides in the Euro competitions suggests that Toulouse+ vs Leinster+ (just joking!) will be a tight affair, but with Ireland struggling a bit for form, France should win with a bit to spare. A trip to Wales, and hosting Italy after that, will give Galthié time to tinker before the potential banana-skin in Edinburgh. What is it with the bloody Scots and potential banana-skins? Finally, it’ll be the all-or-nothing clash with England in Paris, which should be the ‘Final’ of the tournament. France have enough to win it, but will they be able to stop an English juggernaut on a fifteen-game winning streak?
Prediction: France to win it all! Or maybe fall at the last against England.
Ireland
They’re shit. Only one top international side playing in green is worth talking about and they’re not in this tournament. Or so goes the conventional, ahem, wisdom. They’re not shit, far from it, and with Leinster starting to purr in the URC and Champions Cup, with plenty of good players in the other three sides as well, Ireland are probably more in a transition phase than decline. They have problems at prop (along with everyone else, it seems), and their pack got bullied by the Boks (along with everyone else, so no measure there), but still have a core of excellent players capable of beating anyone on their day.
Perhaps also an issue at 10; with nobody really grabbing the jersey since Sexton hobbled off into the sunset, it could be a problem. The pack still has some fearsome beasts in it, and in Conan, van der Flier, Doris, McCarthy, Ryan, Sheehan and company, they’re well set in the starting 15.
It’s probably in the replacements they’re a bit light, and as the tournament goes on any injuries will be keenly felt. In the backs, Keenan makes a timely return, JG-P’s form will be key, and the mouthy man-bun will start at least one fight a match while grinning like a twat. But he scores tries. Plenty of talent in midfield and out wide, but will they get enough decent ball to use it?
A fearsome test first thing up in Paris, followed by a gentler home match against Italy, then away to England and you feel that’s all she wrote of their chances. Playing for pride against Wales and Scotland to finish the tournament, or hoping England and France stumble at some point.
Prediction: No better than third.
Italy
From perennial wooden spoonists to everyone’s second-favourite side as they build a style that’s easy on the eye, but also steely up front. The loss of Ange Capuozzo in particular, and also Sebastian Negri, is a major blow to their chances of progressing beyond the odd heroic win. That said, they still have some fine players in the Cannones (easy, easy): Fischetti, Ferrari, Lamaro, Garbisi, Menoncello, Brex, Lynagh and a couple of others. What they lack is depth, especially in the forwards, with quite a few players in single-figure caps. Italy can ill afford a bad run of injuries.
They kick off with a home match against Scotland, a must-win if they’re to contest for anything other than that sauce stirrer of yore, before heading across to Ireland and France for probable heavy defeats, even if they’ve given France a few scares recently. The Ritual Routing in Rome follows, with only Wales away to salvage their season.
Prediction: No better than fourth, probably not last.
Scotland
Oh, flower of Scotland. When will you bloom? It’s got to be this year that everything clicks, right? The Weedge are winding it up in the URC and Europe, Edinburgh a match in hand off the playoff spots, and some great talent playing in leagues across Europe. Can Finn rustle up some vintage form to dispatch the auld enemy again? Will Duhan and Darcy do the dance of death on desperate defenders?
On paper, Scotland have a wonderful attacking side, with Huwipoluto outside Russell, and plenty of options in the back three. The return of towering Johnny Gray to the second row should add some ballast, alongside Cummings and Gilchrist, whilst the back row is filled with excellent, mobile forwards. Hooker has Ashman, Turner and Cherry to pick (and go), but prop, despite Bok Beef, looks lightweight. Or perhaps it’s in the coaching box that the problem lies?
A potential banana skin against Italy (the peel on the other foot, as it were) in Rome first up, with an Italian side surely relishing going toe-to-toe with the Scottish backs. Next up, England at Murrayfield, and a must-win against them if they’re to get into contention for the top half of the table, followed by a nervy visit to Cardiff against a Wales side desperate for anything to cling to (keep yer kilts closed!). France at home and Ireland away seems a cruel way to finish things off.
Prediction: Not last, probably no better than fourth, capable of higher.
Wales
Home to the best anthem of the Six Nations and one of the best in the world. Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau. Land of our Fathers. I defy any rugby lover to keep a dry eye when sung at full pelt. The evocative words, the pride in nation, in land, in forefathers and the promise implicit in its singing to keep that pride and singular determination are spectacular. In the words of Caryl Thomas, Wales Women’s loosehead prop, “It doesn’t matter if I’m in tune or not when I’m belting it out [bet she is, all Welsh are]. When we get to “Gwlad, Gwlad, pleidiol wyf i’m gwlad”, it feels like you’re standing up for your nation. That’s a great feeling to have, and it makes me incredibly proud.” It was my dad’s favourite anthem after ours, and it still brings a tear to my eye and a lump to my throat to see and hear it sung wherever it’s performed, but no more so than at the old Arms Park, and now Millennium Stadium. Magical.
Wales kick off the tournament in wretched form, having shipped 177 points in the November Tests against the Pumas, All Blacks and Boks. They’re up against England at Twickers, and much as I like Dewi Lake as a grand player, he’s filling in as skipper for the best player Wales have, in Jac Morgan. A glance at the squad is a who’s who of pretty ordinary club players, and you can expect a ruthless England to put them to the sword over 80 minutes. It doesn’t get easier with France in Cardiff next, followed by a Scotland side wanting to stay in the race, then Ireland trying to keep in the race too. By the time Italy arrive for the last weekend, Wales will have Tros ryddid gollasant eu gwaed. They won’t be free.
Prediction: Anything more than sixth will be positive, higher than fifth will be great, above fourth will be investigated for match fixing.
Delightfully described by Deebee7
I’m increasingly unimpressed by Farrell senior
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it seems impossible that so many have (relatively) so few
Well, plug Keenan at fullback, Henshaw or Aki in the centre and Porter and Healy at LH, an O’Mahony in BR, and Murray at SH as well then the numbers start to pile up.
But it shows that alternatives weren’t tried and now – Keenan is plagued with injuries, Henshaw and Aki look on the decline, Healy was picked long after he should have been left go , Porter is suddenly (surprise) picking up injuries when he previously played 70+% of all available mins at LH, O’Mahony probably stayed on a season too many, Murray probably 2 too many
Most of these should have been gently eased out – but now we’re seeing players with few caps having to step in
Baloucoune – unlucky with injuries and ignored – should have more. McCloskey same. Timoney seemed to be in the squad to hold tackle bags. Frawley was in and around but never got a shot at 10, or 12, or 15 – that mean not playing Sexton, Henshaw/Aki, Keenan and so on and on
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Not sure why Izuchukwu was dropped, either.
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I’m increasingly unimpressed by Farrell senior
On this one certainly – it’s a mess. But it’s of a piece with how 10s have been treated for a while now.
Carbery played vs NZ in Autumn 2021, went on the NZ tour in 22, but was out by 2023 6N
Harry Byrne went to NZ in 22, but it was Carbery and Crowley vs Fiji and Crowley/Ross Byrne vs Australia in Autumn 22.
Then Byrne R was the backup to Sexton in 23 6N, but Crowley was on the bench at RWC 23.
With Sexton gone – Crowley was the starting 10 in 2024 6N and in SA (Frawley came on to score 2 DGs)
That continued vs NZ in the autumn of 24. Frawley had a poor game, and Prendergast came in first as sub vs Argentina then started vs Fiji / Australia with Crowley off the bench. Pretty much that followed on in a scrappy 6N.
Crowley then started vs NZ – but Prendergast started vs Australia and SA. And kept the spot for first 2 6N games – but now cast out.
Harry Byrne having gone to NZ in 2022, missed the following AIs, 6N and RWC. But was back for a couple of games in 2024 6N. – before disappearing again as Prendergast was in the panel for SA in 2024.
Frawley subbed for Crowley in 2024 6N (or played FB with no bench 10) and in SA, but was cast adrift after his bad game vs NZ in 2024 but back this weekend….
And so it goes…..players are selected, discarded, recalled, dropped – rotation is one thing but this isn’t it.
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Not sure why Izuchukwu was dropped
No rhyme or reason to it that can easily be discerned – he was pretty effective vs Italy, but when the pressure is on Farrell returns to his “inner circle” – so Beirne to 6, vdF to 7 and Doris at 8
Beirne can deceive but he’s looked jaded recently, and van der Flier was a non-factor v France.
First sub will be Conan to 8 – Doris to 7 and vdf goes off. When Ryan/McCarthy go off -it’ll be Beirne to the 2nd row, Doris to 6 and Timoney to 7, I suppose. Beirne has to do 80 – with no second row cover.
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Townsend, described by Beattie as “the best Scottish coach of the modern era”
Does Beattie need to go for a long-delayed HIA? Can Scotland back up their evisceration of England with a whipping of Wales? Absolutely! Apologies, CMW. I must actually stop watching Welsh rugby. The amount of apologies needed is making me feel positively Canadian. Sorry
Jamison Gibson-Park believes familiarity between the squads has added a new dimension to the rivalry. “I think there was a bit of ‘mateship’ created between us.
Not as sexy as it sounds, this will be less seduction and more desperation and fumbling in the dark as two friends with benefits end a drunken evening.
“France have played their best rugby already and I expect us to turn their pack into tartare and their backs into soufflé” said Italy coach Gonzalo Quesada, picking his teeth with the bones of his coq au vin”. This may not be an actual quote, but I couldn’t find any. Expecting a ferocious, entertaining match, probably watched on fucking phone, because unlike Kolwezi, Kinshasa is unlikely to have proper sport on.
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Welsh U20s up 29-7 on Scotland at about 60 mins.
The mister reckons that they should just be played against the adults.
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Meanwhile, Mark Allen is beating Mark Selby 5-0, so we are both happy.
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Scottish babies have woken up. 31-21 now. 75 mins in.
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Uh-oh, Selby’s finally won a frame, and in fine style with a century break, too.
Our Mark only needs one more.
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Well, Selby won another frame, and then the eighth went on for close to an hour, but fortunately our hero was victorious! Yay!
He’ll probably get beaten by Zhao in the next match.
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New post is up
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