The squads have been announced, the photo-ops done, the pre-tournament blathering from the coaches and captains is out of the way, and what do we know about the 2026 Six Nations? It’s sponsored by Guinness. Much more than that, it’s difficult to say who will end where, and who will lift the trophy come mid-March. Also, BKT sponsor the tyres for those torturous bus trips from the hotels to the stadia. Who knew? What we do know are the squads and schedules, which make for some fascinating (or not) speculation:
England
Nailed-on favourites to win the whole thing, of course, possibly with a Grand Slam thrown in: ask the English media, they’ll tell you, just like they do every year. Until the first loss, when the knives come out. Comedy gold. This year is no different, with the caveat being that England really are a very, very good side and bubbling with confidence. Eleven-match winning streak, some audacious new talents led by the irritating irrepressible Henry Pollock under the leadership of St Maro, and possessing not just excellence in the forwards and backs, but depth through the 23 and broader squad. A gentle start to the tournament against Wales (sorry, Welsh fans) will set England up nicely for a feisty clash against Scotland at Murrayfield. A potential banana-skin, but England should have too much in the tank for Scotland, and can move back to HQ against Ireland for a massive clash with confidence. A lesser clash against Italy follows, as a nice warm up for probably the tournament-defining Test against France in Paris. Possible weaknesses? Not many: maybe a callow set of props, but it seems to be an area of general parity in the north at the moment.
Prediction: England to win it all! Or maybe fall at the last against France.
France
Which France will turn up? The return of the world’s best player is a huge boost for France, and Dupont’s club form in the last couple of weeks has underlined his status as an out-and-out matchwinner. That said, France will be hoping he doesn’t get injured, because the nine cupboard is (comparatively) bare after that with Lucu, Jauneau and Le Garrec all out for the first couple of matches at least. A bit of a creaky front row, potentially, but plenty of boeuf in the pack. The exclusion of Aldritt, in particular, raises eyebrows though. Outside of Dupont, the likes of Depoortere, Moefana, Jalibert, Ramos and LB-B provide threats across the park – and I’d love to see them in full flight!
France open their campaign with a must-win match against Ireland in Paris. The form of French sides in the Euro competitions suggests that Toulouse+ vs Leinster+ (just joking!) will be a tight affair, but with Ireland struggling a bit for form, France should win with a bit to spare. A trip to Wales, and hosting Italy after that, will give Galthié time to tinker before the potential banana-skin in Edinburgh. What is it with the bloody Scots and potential banana-skins? Finally, it’ll be the all-or-nothing clash with England in Paris, which should be the ‘Final’ of the tournament. France have enough to win it, but will they be able to stop an English juggernaut on a fifteen-game winning streak?
Prediction: France to win it all! Or maybe fall at the last against England.
Ireland
They’re shit. Only one top international side playing in green is worth talking about and they’re not in this tournament. Or so goes the conventional, ahem, wisdom. They’re not shit, far from it, and with Leinster starting to purr in the URC and Champions Cup, with plenty of good players in the other three sides as well, Ireland are probably more in a transition phase than decline. They have problems at prop (along with everyone else, it seems), and their pack got bullied by the Boks (along with everyone else, so no measure there), but still have a core of excellent players capable of beating anyone on their day.
Perhaps also an issue at 10; with nobody really grabbing the jersey since Sexton hobbled off into the sunset, it could be a problem. The pack still has some fearsome beasts in it, and in Conan, van der Flier, Doris, McCarthy, Ryan, Sheehan and company, they’re well set in the starting 15.
It’s probably in the replacements they’re a bit light, and as the tournament goes on any injuries will be keenly felt. In the backs, Keenan makes a timely return, JG-P’s form will be key, and the mouthy man-bun will start at least one fight a match while grinning like a twat. But he scores tries. Plenty of talent in midfield and out wide, but will they get enough decent ball to use it?
A fearsome test first thing up in Paris, followed by a gentler home match against Italy, then away to England and you feel that’s all she wrote of their chances. Playing for pride against Wales and Scotland to finish the tournament, or hoping England and France stumble at some point.
Prediction: No better than third.
Italy
From perennial wooden spoonists to everyone’s second-favourite side as they build a style that’s easy on the eye, but also steely up front. The loss of Ange Capuozzo in particular, and also Sebastian Negri, is a major blow to their chances of progressing beyond the odd heroic win. That said, they still have some fine players in the Cannones (easy, easy): Fischetti, Ferrari, Lamaro, Garbisi, Menoncello, Brex, Lynagh and a couple of others. What they lack is depth, especially in the forwards, with quite a few players in single-figure caps. Italy can ill afford a bad run of injuries.
They kick off with a home match against Scotland, a must-win if they’re to contest for anything other than that sauce stirrer of yore, before heading across to Ireland and France for probable heavy defeats, even if they’ve given France a few scares recently. The Ritual Routing in Rome follows, with only Wales away to salvage their season.
Prediction: No better than fourth, probably not last.
Scotland
Oh, flower of Scotland. When will you bloom? It’s got to be this year that everything clicks, right? The Weedge are winding it up in the URC and Europe, Edinburgh a match in hand off the playoff spots, and some great talent playing in leagues across Europe. Can Finn rustle up some vintage form to dispatch the auld enemy again? Will Duhan and Darcy do the dance of death on desperate defenders?
On paper, Scotland have a wonderful attacking side, with Huwipoluto outside Russell, and plenty of options in the back three. The return of towering Johnny Gray to the second row should add some ballast, alongside Cummings and Gilchrist, whilst the back row is filled with excellent, mobile forwards. Hooker has Ashman, Turner and Cherry to pick (and go), but prop, despite Bok Beef, looks lightweight. Or perhaps it’s in the coaching box that the problem lies?
A potential banana skin against Italy (the peel on the other foot, as it were) in Rome first up, with an Italian side surely relishing going toe-to-toe with the Scottish backs. Next up, England at Murrayfield, and a must-win against them if they’re to get into contention for the top half of the table, followed by a nervy visit to Cardiff against a Wales side desperate for anything to cling to (keep yer kilts closed!). France at home and Ireland away seems a cruel way to finish things off.
Prediction: Not last, probably no better than fourth, capable of higher.
Wales
Home to the best anthem of the Six Nations and one of the best in the world. Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau. Land of our Fathers. I defy any rugby lover to keep a dry eye when sung at full pelt. The evocative words, the pride in nation, in land, in forefathers and the promise implicit in its singing to keep that pride and singular determination are spectacular. In the words of Caryl Thomas, Wales Women’s loosehead prop, “It doesn’t matter if I’m in tune or not when I’m belting it out [bet she is, all Welsh are]. When we get to “Gwlad, Gwlad, pleidiol wyf i’m gwlad”, it feels like you’re standing up for your nation. That’s a great feeling to have, and it makes me incredibly proud.” It was my dad’s favourite anthem after ours, and it still brings a tear to my eye and a lump to my throat to see and hear it sung wherever it’s performed, but no more so than at the old Arms Park, and now Millennium Stadium. Magical.
Wales kick off the tournament in wretched form, having shipped 177 points in the November Tests against the Pumas, All Blacks and Boks. They’re up against England at Twickers, and much as I like Dewi Lake as a grand player, he’s filling in as skipper for the best player Wales have, in Jac Morgan. A glance at the squad is a who’s who of pretty ordinary club players, and you can expect a ruthless England to put them to the sword over 80 minutes. It doesn’t get easier with France in Cardiff next, followed by a Scotland side wanting to stay in the race, then Ireland trying to keep in the race too. By the time Italy arrive for the last weekend, Wales will have Tros ryddid gollasant eu gwaed. They won’t be free.
Prediction: Anything more than sixth will be positive, higher than fifth will be great, above fourth will be investigated for match fixing.
Delightfully described by Deebee7
What we saw there was the problem we had with them last year – they just make ground so easily against us to get back to the 22.
LikeLike
And that was very poor. We have one player challenging for the kick, nobody with him in case he wins it, they’re all hanging back but even then they’re not putting themselves in position to make the tackles when France win it.
LikeLike
Mostly doing stupidly inept things now. Hopefully France get a bit disjointed with the subs after they score here and we get ten minutes respite before they fill their boots at the end.
LikeLike
Beard is a donkey.
LikeLike
Boys showed they can at least play a bit there. Real shame they didn’t score.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Well, the other thing about Tomos is that he is sooooo fuuuuuucking sloooooow off the back of a ruck.
LikeLike
Awful lot of dropsies now; has it started raining? (It’s been pouring here.)
LikeLike
I am constantly thrown by how deep Danny Care’s voice is.
LikeLike
Glad Wales got another try. France are unbeatable when they play like this, imo.
This Welsh side could easily beat Ireland this year. It has functioning set pieces, unlike us.
LikeLike
Well played France, far too good. We sorted out our discipline to a great extent and scrum and lineout went well and were still never in the game.
Would possibly have taken that score at half time, certainly after about 50 minutes. Start of the second half was the most depressing bit from a Wales point of view at least if we put Beard’s kick to one side.
We could perhaps do worse than pass the ball to Eddie James a bit more earlier in the next match.
LikeLike
I love Sam Warburton.
LikeLike
In fact, he should probably be the Welsh coach.
LikeLike
Plumbtree broke his yellow card streak, that’s something.
LikeLike
A lot of positives for Wales there I thought. probably competitive with everyone else in the tournament more or less, and a step up from England last week. Pack halfway decent, and with changes the back line looks sort of composed. Think Adams should be put out to grass tho, and Zammo looks to have lost a yard of pace, altho generally looking pretty comfortable at 15. Williams probably needs a rest earlier, tbh, Thaum, he ain’t no spring chicken, and was noticeably slower for most of the second half, he does a huge amount of work covering as well.
LikeLike
LRZ (still) has some speed and some side-steps, but he doesn’t have the silky off-loading skills of Dupont or Bielle-Biarrey. But who does?
LikeLiked by 1 person
That was a bit if a training run for France. They have excellent skills and all that but the games yesterday were far more interesting than today’s, edge of my seat stuff. I hope Wales can quickly improve or else…
I watched the U20 game last night, and although Wales lost they were highly competitive.
I wish the Italian forward pass leading to a disallowed try had been reffed like the England one that lead to a dubious try. Both were forward, to be clear, but it ‘d’ve made an interesting game in Dublin.
Amost a full house for the teams in blue.
LikeLiked by 1 person
” I hope Wales can quickly improve or else…”
Or else what? Obviously if we don’t there will be more boring one-sided games in the tournament, but when haven’t there been? After all, two of the teams involved haven’t come close to winning it between them in 26 years. There’s not even any guarantee that today’s game will be France’s highest score of the tournament judging by some of their results over the last few seasons.
LikeLike
CMW, my writing ” or else.. ” was meant with a question mark. Wales U20s are very good and with a bit more exposure to pro rugby could’ve beaten France yesterday. So yes, there is hope. But the WRU cannot waste time, and must sort out their mess.
I did not like Wales style under Gatland and I prefer remembering 70s Wales ( yes, I can, unfortunately) but it was competitive, therefore bringing a lot to the 6N table. We don’t want whipping boys, every team should fear the Cardiff trip.
LikeLike
@Flair – We don’t want whipping boys I agree, and I certainly don’t want them to be Wales. The tournament has always had a bottom team though (I realise it swapped between Italy and Scotland for a few years at one point) so what is the real change in balance? Seems to me it’s that until Scotland or Italy prove otherwise we have moved from a tournament that could be won by one of four teams to one that could be won by one of three. That will still be true if Wales recover to the level of Scotland or Italy (which may be the height of our ambition seeing as we’re cutting teams) and that should be a concern.
LikeLike
One of the things that Warbs was warbling (sorry, couldn’t resist) about post-match was bringing on young players from the U20s.
He really should be involved in the camp, maybe just for motivational talks. Said there was no point in beating players up under the current circs, but that it was best to find what went well (set pieces, some of the attacking rugby in the second half) and try to build on that, and build confidence.
But he also talked about being coached by Shaun Edwards, and how everyone was basically terrified of his post-match comments until he explained that he wouldn’t waste his breath on you if he didn’t think that you could improve and might be picked next time. So then everyone wanted the hairdryer treatment off him!
LikeLike
While I can see that Warbs would potentially be a good person for them to have involved I suspect it might be a bit of a concern just now that he was one of the leading voices in favour of putting a quarter of Welsh players (and a load of other people) out of work. Now of course he may be right, time will tell, but not everyone’s delighted to be losing the Ospreys as seems inevitable.
LikeLike
Oh! I didn’t know that.
Then maybe not.
LikeLike
@Thaum – I think he has since backtracked on it a bit. However, at the time what made it worse is that he was on the Cardiff board, the regions were supposed to be negotiating settlements with the WRU and at the same time he was advocating in his media role for cutting one or even two of the regions. And of course we all knew it wouldn’t be Cardiff purely because it’s the capital city (on other measures such as ever being successful or currently being vaguely solvent they would have been an obvious contender). Now I think he comes across as a decent guy, obviously a great player (even if he did spoil my birthday in 2011) and probably didn’t look at his position in the light he should have done. But in terms of behaviour in public life it wasn’t great.
LikeLike
I mean obviously it’s small beer when every time I turn on the TV, radio or use the internet I am presented with further evidence that the world we’ve been living in has been a James Ellroy novel all along. Still didn’t like it though.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Wasn’t there speculation some years ago about Cardiff being dropped, being (at the time) the least-successful region?
But yes, okay, a charitable interpretation of what you’re telling me is that he’s politically naive and has been foolishly listening to the money men.
What did he do to you in 2011?
LikeLike
I don’t think (and can’t really imagine) that anyone has ever seriously speculated about Cardiff disappearing. I’m sure plenty of Wales would joke about it though. Obviously the Dragons are the actual least successful team on the field and have been for at least 15 years probably longer, though I would say Cardiff are the next after them.
I would think that looking from the outside people would think it’s pretty wild that if we’re going down to three teams one of them won’t be more or less based in Swansea. There are not many big(gish) places in Wales after all, arguably only two.
He got sent off in the semi-final in 2011 – not really his fault in my opinion, but I can laugh about it now…
LikeLike
Oh, I think I remember that vaguely! Something to do with a new law being strictly interpreted? Taking a player out in the air?
There are not many big(gish) places in Wales after all
This is one of the things that I love about Wales. We are very seriously considering moving to Eryri once the mister retires.
LikeLike
Who wants some mind-melting math-rock to end the weekend?
LikeLike
watchingrugby special last night reminded me of couple of things that I should mention. Firstly, I am not sure player ofthe weekend should not actually go to a ref. Holly Davidson is a fantastic communicator, and was also pretty spot on with most of her decisions. Forward pass for Lynagh try was harsh, and would have had Expro fuming, it did leave his hands backwards, but it was way forwards, happy with that, but several were given in the first round , and it was a tmo decision. Lynagh’s ye;;ow was also harsh, considering he did exactly the same thing a couple of minutes before and caught it, but hey. Her scrum officiating was excellent, and when she talks to the players there is no option for a comeback. Class. On further reffing, southern hemisphere refs are much more likely to say play the ball at a collapsed scrum if it is clean ball, and I like that.
Arundels first yellow was really harsh, 9 times out of 10 that would be seen as a really good jackal, he did actually release momentarily, it was just really quick. Second one was pure dumb,even tho he was looking at the ball,and could have been a straight red.
LikeLiked by 4 people
Thought all the refs had good games.
LikeLike
agreed – but the rulings on forward passes appear inconsistent between games and can often be critical. Does this need looking at?
LikeLike
@Slade – I think I’d be inclined to say no. I think everyone needs to understand that marginal ones are a guessing game and accept the decisions and get on with it. I don’t mean we shouldn’t bemoan or celebrate our luck as we perceive it, but it is just a subjective area of the game.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Further reflection on England’s performance (not just this latest):
In this super-managed / professional era,
1. what were England’s expensive team psychologists doing to:
a) let Itoje play
b) manage Genge’s inner demons and
c) prepare the likes of Arundell for the shock of playing after all the hype
d)manage the team’s usual numb performance at Murayfield?
2. who was managing morale and strategy on the pitch – or are players told not to deviate from any pre-plan without instruction via a waterboy?
3. If Russell is an artist, Ford is an engineer. Ford and others in the squad continue to play without wit and instinct.
4. The backline does not appear fit for purpose at the highest level (all are very good club players). Freeman is not a ‘natural’ centre: he gets caught out of position, seems incapable of passing to his right and a game like this is not appropriate to teach him.
Also, I noticed that e.g. wings tend to over-run receipt of the potential pass, the passer then being ‘driven’ to pass forward. What do they do in training? Scotland have now banished their old habit of dropsies in the backs through trying to hard and they are now very good and reliable – so it is learnable.
Inevitably, Finn Smith should play at 10. He is good, flexible, inclusive of those around him and sound in defence. Marcus Smith is spectacular but not instinctively inclusive.
Surely I am not alone in thinking these things?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Refit, if the math-rock ever becomes a bit “samey”, have a go with Clown Core https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT7x1NvGf5k
I sometimes think about killer line and wonder how he is doing, along with the others
LikeLiked by 2 people
The only thing that I can say about the weekend’s rugby is to voice my frustration that we can beat England but we can’t beat the teams that England can beat.
On another issue, the Glasgow stats guru worked out that the England try that came from the blatantly forward pass cost us three ranking places on the World Rugby log.
It doesn’t matter because the RWC draw is already done, however it does show that these things matter.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I was interested to listen to Hamilton/Goode/Biggar talking about Scot/Eng.
Big Jim said that Finn Russell told him that they would target Freeman at 13 – given that he is not international standard yet in that position. 13 is the most difficult channel to defend and England’s inside centre tended to drift close to Ford to help him out defensively.
All this positional stress was exacerbated by Freeman having no winger outside him for much of the game.
It really grinds my wheels that England use these games to play and train good players out of position – if nothing else it’s a terrible motivational insult to the oppo and I don’t think Scotland needed that!
Net result – England suffered avoidably.
Grrr!
LikeLike
I would agree about Freeman. Think Scotland would have been looking to attack where they did whoever was playing 13 though and there is some evidence for this from the last few years.
I’m also pleased whenever teams get caught out for having the 6-2 split (not wanting anyone to get injured of course) as I really don’t like it. I imagine England will stick with it but might not have both Ford and Fin Smith in the 23 in future though perhaps they’ll just take their chances.
LikeLike
Ticht – as an England fan, I’m also fed up of Scotland beating us, after they’ve lost to a team we’ve just handily beaten.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Ryan Vs Pollock could be fireworks.
LikeLike
No Finn Smith in the 23, a pretty lightweight backrow that doesn’t seem to offer much in the lineouts, but could be excellent in the loose and broken play. Freeman back to wing where he belongs, with Ollie Lawrence back at 13. Arundell keeps his spot after being cleared by the disciplinary panel (correctly) and St Maro reaches 100 caps!
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Henry Arundell, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Henry Pollock, 7 Ben Earl, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje (captain), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Guy Pepper, 21 Sam Underhill, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith
LikeLike
And Freddie Steward stays at 15 to add dash and derring-do or maybe herringbone as autocorrect suggested.
LikeLiked by 2 people
herringbone sounds better, sticks in the throat, whether a fish bone or a nice woollen cloth . How many times do we need to see poor old Freddie flat footed as someone steps him ?
Freeman at centre is herringbone as well, shit passer and trained to look for the line not the support. Good, possibly great wing, centre aint the same. On the wing he often bulldozes thru a couple of tackles, from another winger or someoneelse covering across at pace, in the centre last week he kept running into brick walls. I get it if all the other options are shit, but we have Ojomoh, Atkinson and Lawrence who all deserve time on the pitch, and could form world class combinations, and I don’t see DIngwall and Freeman as anything special any time soon.
Ticht, missing Killsy and Claw etc, you must also be trying to invoke Expro with the forward pass comment. Hands /momentum etc brother :)
Rather lose to Scotland than Wales,tbh. That would be really funny this season. Zammo running rings around Steward.
PS Flair, Slade, any tips on good french cop shows or comedies worth watching ?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Cop shows – Pink Panther!
Comedies – ‘Allo ‘Allo!
Best of French! Get in!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Poirot as well of course.
LikeLike
Pfft! Belgian imposter!
LikeLike
I was hoping to out you as Hercule himself and win a fiver, but it was always going to depend on exactly how you responded.
My serious answer was Maigret…
LikeLiked by 1 person
Ireland
15. Jamie Osborne (Naas/Leinster)(12)
14. Robert Baloucoune (Enniskillen/Ulster)(5)
13. Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster)(71)
12. Stuart McCloskey (Bangor/Ulster)(25)
11. James Lowe (Leinster)(44)
10. Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster)(32)
9. Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster)(48)
Replacements:
LikeLike
Farrell: “you keyboard warriors should get behind the Irish no.10s”
The People: but you’ve kicked Prendergast out of the 23″
Farrell: “……..errrr”
LikeLiked by 2 people
Keep looking at the Irish caps and it seems impossible that so many have (relatively) so few. Always amazed at Lowe and JGP, but obviously qualification came into that, but so many others are guys I thought would be the better side of 50 (in cap terms, before some wise arse digs at Dad’s Army)* but far fewer than I thought.
*Ja, probably would’ve been me. Stale old joke, much like the Irish backs etc etc. I’ll get my coat. And hard hat.
LikeLike
@slade
Well, this is it.
There was a lot of “excitement” when Prendergast first came through – played in a summer tournament (2022? Tector had been 10 in the U20 6N but wasn’t available – uni exams I think)
He was good in the U20s that won a GS in 2023 – but it had a good pack. In the U20 world championship – he stood out less but there was significant talk about this “generational talent” who ‘led’ Ireland to the final
As a result, he was rushed into the Irish team – played 20 mins in autumn 2024 vs Argentina (subbing on for Crowley), then started vs Fiji (lucky not to be red carded after about 8 mins), and also against Australia.
Clamour was then for him to start in the 6N – when smart move would have been to have him to finish games. Some of the glitter came off after the Northampton game – certainly his defensive frailties were front and centre after that. Farrell took neither Sam nor Jack on the Lions – almost the only Irish starters not to travel.
I’m not sure what the motivations were – it was obvious even at U20 that Prendergast wasn’t very athletic (awkward running gait, long strides but no “speed”) and wouldn’t/couldn’t tackle.
Now, having started vs France and Italy – dropped entirely…
One reading is that Farrell wanted the good press that would follow from “finding Johnny’s replacement” (as opposed to Crowley who’d started vs Fiji in 2022, then disappeared in favour of Ross Byrne in 2023 6N but then got ahead of Byrne for 2023 RWC – Crowley hadn’t been the chosen one but had just kept playing well when chosen).
Or just wanted to appear smarter than everyone – he’d hit gold fast tracking Hansen – maybe he figured it’d be the same…. it doesn’t help that Ireland are on a decline
LikeLiked by 2 people